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Thursday, August 3, 2017

Reality hits Brexit Britain; U.S. dollar has plunged under Trump; Avon's CEO steps down

Profitable Moment
 

Reality hits Brexit Britain

The Bank of England today confirmed what many had suspected but could not prove: the mere prospect of Brexit is having an effect on the British economy. Mark Carney, the BoE's governor, warned that Brexit uncertainty "weighs on the decisions of businesses and households and holds down both demand and supply." It came as no surprise then that the central bank reduced its GDP forecasts for both this year and next.

Adam Posen, a former member of the interest rate setting Monetary Policy Committee, told me his timing for the economic slump was off. Posen had expected the drop immediately after the referendum. But similar to Looney Tunes cartoon character Wile E. Coyote, the British economy ran off a cliff…and kept running, until it suddenly realized there was nothing underneath. Now, it's falling.

Okay – maybe that is too pessimistic, but it's clear the economic problems are starting to arrive. This won't upset the Brexiters. Recall the recent survey that showed three out of five who those voted for Brexit didn't care that there would be adverse economic consequences.

They are arriving. 

-Richard.Quest@cnn.com 

What's new... what's next
 

By Matt Egan, Patrick Gillespie, Julia Horowitz and Paul R. La Monica of CNNMoney

1. Weak! U.S. dollar has plunged under Trump

President Trump points to strong stocks as a sign his policies are working. But what about the dramatically weaker U.S. dollar? After spiking to a 14-year high in early January, it's tumbled 10% to pre-election levels. The slump has been driven in part by Trump's legislative failures. The bond market isn't buying the Trump hype either. Yields remain low, signaling doubt about faster growth. Meanwhile, the stocks keeps chugging along. The S&P 500 hasn't suffered a downturn of 5% or more in 402 days, the longest streak since 1996.

2. Trump's immigration plan poses economic risk 

President Trump is endorsing a Republican bill that seeks to curb legal immigration by using a skills-based system. Economists fear that it will cut down the supply of foreign-born workers the U.S. heavily depends on to grow its job market. It's pretty simple: Fewer workers means less economic growth. Many critics say Trump's immigration goals contradict his promises to grow the economy at 3% a year. 

3. Top British CEOs took big pay cut last year

CEOs in the U.K. aren't making as much as they used to. The average compensation package for the heads of FTSE 100 firms fell 17% last year. There has been increased scrutiny of CEO salaries and bonuses, particularly from British Prime Minister Theresa May. But don't cry poverty for the business leaders of London. While the average pay cut worked out to £900,000 -- or $1.2 million -- the FTSE 100 CEOs still made an average of £4.5 million ($6 million.) 

4. Ding dong! Avon's CEO steps down

Sheri McCoy, the CEO of iconic cosmetics brand Avon, will step down next March. No replacement has been named yet. But McCoy's tenure was a rocky one. Sales continued to plunge under her watch. Activist shareholders were not pleased with the company's performance. There were even fake takeover rumors and a false report that Oprah Winfrey wanted to invest in Avon. McCoy's eventual successor will have a lot to prove to Wall Street and consumers.

5. Quick Takes:

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Gun companies blame slow sales since U.S. election for weak sales

6. What's next:

1st million jobs of the Trump era: The most important piece of economic news all month is coming out at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. Economists surveyed by CNNMoney estimate that the U.S. added 183,000 jobs in July, down from 222,000 in June. The unemployment rate is expected to dip to 4.3%. July's job gains could mark the first million jobs created during Trump's presidency.

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