| | | | Here are all the places Trump is losing support | | A new CNN poll shows that just 36% of Americans approve of the job Donald Trump is doing, the lowest mark to date in his presidency. (That's in keeping with a number of other polls of late.)
It's also a significant fade from Trump's 100-day mark -- when he stood at 44% approval in CNN data.
So, where, specifically, is Trump bleeding support? I asked CNN's polling boss Jenn Agiesta that question! Here's where she pointed me.
1. Indies. Unaffiliated voters are leaving Trump's side in large numbers. Back at the 100-day mark in April, Trump was at 44% approval with independents. Now? 32%. Trump's numbers among partisans are broadly similar. He's at 5% approval among Democrats (vs 8% in April) and 86% approval among Republicans (vs 85% in April).
2. Non-college educated whites. Trump approval is down seven points from where he stood among whites generally in April. Agiesta notes that most of the Trump erosion is among non-college educated whites, a group that served as one of the pillars of Trump's stunning 2016 win. At the 100-day mark, Trump was at 59% approval among non-college educated whites. Today, it's 46%. Weirdly -- at least to me -- is that 38% of college-educated whites approved of Trump in April while 42% do now.
3. Non-whites. You'd think Trump wouldn't have very far to fall among non-white voters, given how poorly he has performed with that group since the start of his candidacy. But you'd be wrong! At 100 days, 29% of non-white voters approved of the job Trump was doing. Now? Just 18%. It's hard not to blame some of that decline on Trump's handling of the white supremacist violence in Charlottesville, Virginia, where Trump repeatedly suggested both sides were to blame. Trump's approval rating among African-Americans in the new CNN poll? 4%.
The Point: When people say that Trump's base is holding steady, that's broadly right. He remains very popular among the people who voted for him. But among almost everyone else -- and even among some elements of his base -- perceptions of Trump are headed in the wrong direction.
--Chris | | VIRGINIA'S GUBERNATORIAL NAIL-BITER | | 
If Trump's poll numbers are generally one-way traffic, then the Virginia gubernatorial race is -- the opposite. It's been a roller coaster over the past few weeks. Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam has kept a lead, but it's down from months ago, bigly, so he and Republican Ed Gillespie are now neck-and-neck with Election Day just hours away.
Northam remains the favorite, and he received a little bump in most of the most recent polls. To wit:
Fox News: Northam leads, 48% to 43%
The Wason Center at Christopher Newport University: Northam leads, 51% to 45%
Quinnipiac University: Northam leads, 51% to 42%
Monmouth University: Northam leads, 47% to 45%
So are Democrats feeling confident? Of course not!
Not after what happened around this time last year. The anxiety is there, and with it the intra-party critics ready to roast each other if Republicans -- the party with the 36% approval rating President -- pull this one out after a series of special election wins.
Here's a quick recap of how we got here, and the hell to pay if the Dems squander Virginia.
Along with Virginia, there is a governor's race winding down in New Jersey. That one should be an easy pickup for Democrats (thanks in large part to GOP Gov. Chris Christie's unpopularity). CNN's Eric Bradner here with a viewer's guide to VA, NJ and other key contests.
| | GUN CONTROL, TEXAS AND TRUMP | | New York's Daily News with some jarring context on its front page Monday. But even after this recent rash of deadly attacks, the response from government officials has been pretty familiar.
President Trump, at a news conference in Japan, discussed the Texas massacre. What he said tidily sums up why mass shootings don't move us toward tougher gun laws:
"This isn't a guns situation. This is a mental health problem at the highest level. It's a very, very sad event. A very, very sad event, but that's the way I view it."
Taking guns off the table as a cause of gun violence is a pretty sure way of guaranteeing that stricter gun control measures never get a real look. It is, as Chris put it earlier today, the old "Guns don't kill people. People kill people" argument.
And it's a conversation stopper. | | | "Well, I was really disappointed at the results. But what I came to very quickly was, as I've said many, many, many, times, if I wasn't elected president, I was going to ski a hundred-plus days and I was also going to ride the Continental Divide bike race." - Gary Johnson, the 2016 Libertarian candidate, in Esquire's history of the day Trump won the presidency | | | Tomorrow's election day! Hope you've got your best outfit ready!
Esquire's oral history of what happened on Election Day 2016
The 10 House incumbents most likely to lose in 2018
What cake-cutting can teach us about gerrymandering by the New Scientist's Timothy Revell
I will read anything written on "Outlander" -- including this good one by The Ringer's Ben Lindbergh
The Internet is awful, by James Bridle | | | LOVE Pinegrove. And their new one -- "Intrepid" -- is very much worth your time. | | If you thought the Panama Papers were intense, buckle up for the sequel: the Paradise Papers!
Jackie Wattles and Jill Disis of CNNMoney broke down why they matter, what we've learned so far and how the revelations could, yup, even further complicate the Trump-Russia story. Here are a couple of quick grabs from their story:
What happened: "A trove of leaked documents made public Sunday purport to show financial ties between Russia and a member of President Trump's Cabinet."
What's inside: "The project, which is based on more than 13.4 million documents dated from 1950 to 2016, covers a large number of global corporations, government leaders, and prominent people and their use of offshore accounts to avoid taxes or otherwise hide ownership of assets."
Trump administration-Russia connection: "The New York Times reported that Trump's commerce secretary, Wilbur Ross, has retained a multimillion-dollar stake in Navigator, a shipping company whose top customers include the Russian energy firm Sibur. Sibur's owners include a member of Russian President Vladimir Putin's family and a Russian oligarch, according to the Times, which also says the firm itself was created by the Russian government."
Trump family/administration-Russia-Twitter-Facebook connection: "The Times also reported that two state-run Russian companies secretly and indirectly poured millions of dollars into Twitter and Facebook. Both of the transactions allegedly involved Yuri Milner, a Russian tech mogul who has business ties to Trump's son-in-law, White House adviser Jared Kushner."
Read it all here. This one, as they say in the news business, has legs. | | CRUNCH TIME FOR BRADY, RYAN AND THE GOP TAX PLAN | | Monday in Washington meant it was time for markups on the Republican tax plan. CNN's Phil Mattingly put together a list of very specific issues going forward -- each one capable of either stalling or derailing the process:
1. State and local tax deductions -- stay, go, or a compromise?
2. The plan would cap the home mortgage interest deduction at $500,000 for new mortgages -- can the housing industry push back successfully?
3. Who gets access to that 25% pass through rate?
4. Will the global minimum tax for corporations with high revenue subsidiaries overseas -- happen?
5. And what happens to the the adoption tax credit? It's gone in the plan, but the faith community is concerned.
6. The plan's corporate cuts are permanent, but help on the individual side phases out over time. Is that politically feasible?
7. What happens to the plan's repeal of the deduction for medical expenses?
As Phil writes, the horror stories from families who'd be hit hard by No. 7 are already beginning to swirl.
Those are some key points -- for a good, comprehensive wrap on what's going on this week, and the big picture timeline, check out CNN's wrap here. | | A very un-neighborly neighbor has been charged with assaulting Sen. Rand Paul on Sunday while the Kentucky Republican was visiting his home in Bowling Green.
Per CNN's Sophie Tatum and Drew Griffin: "Paul sustained five rib fractures, including three displaced fractures and bruised lungs after a neighbor allegedly assaulted him while at his home in Bowling Green, Kentucky, a senior adviser told CNN."
Also from their story: The attorney representing Paul's neighbor, Rene Boucher, who was charged with the assault, said Monday that the incident had "absolutely nothing" to do with politics.
Later, CNN's Drew Griffin and Scott Bronstein reported this tidbit:
"A neighbor who did not want to be identified said the two have been 'quibbling' over yard waste for years. According to the neighbor, Paul and Boucher, who share a property line in a gated community, have a long-running dispute over grass clippings and leaves blown onto each others' lawns.
"The neighbor did not witness Boucher allegedly assaulting Paul on Friday, and therefore could not say definitely if this is what led to the attack."
Guessing we haven't heard the last of this very strange (and apparently quite violent) story. | | | Happy Election Day Eve! Also, a programming note: We'll publish a bit later tomorrow so we can bring you all the developing news. And, as always, please remind everyone you know to subscribe to The Point. | | We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media and more. Our authors for The Point are Chris Cillizza and Saba Hamedy. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris or Saba. Follow on Twitter: Chris and Saba. | | | Get the Nightcap, a comprehensive summary of the most important political news, delivered to your inbox daily. | | | | | |
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