| | | | 2018 election results: Still loading |  | | Get ready to keep waiting because there are still a LOT of votes to be counted (or recounted, depending on the state).
Between recounts, continuing tabulations, and runoffs (looking at you, Mississippi), the 2018 midterms have felt like the election that just won't finish loading, though -- thankfully -- we do have *brand new* results in a good chunk of the high-profile races (like some fascinating data showing California's Orange County turning blue).
Here's where things stand --
They're still counting votes in Florida, California and Utah (and still have another race in Mississippi): - Florida Senate: Republican Rick Scott holds a narrow but increasingly insurmountable lead over Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson. A hand recount of overvotes and undervotes is underway and the result of that recount won't be known until noon Sunday.
- Florida governor: The results won't be certified until Tuesday, but Republican Ron DeSantis' lead over Democrat Andrew Gillum was cemented in the machine recount finished on Thursday night.
- California: There are still three unresolved House races and Democrats are leading all of them -- those outcomes are expected to pad the Democratic majority in the House. With such tight margins (in CA-39, CA-48 and CA-49), CNN has yet to call any of these races.
- UT-4: GOP Rep. Mia Love on Friday pulled ahead of Democrat Ben McAdams. Love leads by just 419 votes as of Saturday morning.
- Mississippi Senate: With a four-way contest preventing anyone from capturing 50% of the vote, top two finishers Democrat Mike Espy and Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith are headed to a late November runoff. Much more on that below ...
But we also have some outcomes: - Georgia governor: On Friday night, it was official: Republican Brian Kemp is the next governor of Georgia. Democrat Stacey Abrams said so in an unconventional concession speech Friday night -- she had considered litigation over the election's outcome as recently as Friday morning, but ultimately made the decision to end her campaign.
- ME-2: Democrat Jared Golden is the first winner of a ranked-choice congressional vote, ousting GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin. Meanwhile, Poliquin vows to continue his lawsuit that argues ranked-choice voting violates federal law.
- CA-10: Democrat Josh Harder bested GOP Rep. Jeff Denham in the Central Valley congressional race.
- CA-45: Rep. Mimi Walters conceded to Democrat Katie Porter (a former student of Sen. Elizabeth Warren) on Friday. The district is solidly within Orange County, which Ronald Reagan once said is where "all the good Republicans go to die."
- NJ-3: GOP Rep. Tom MacArthur's loss to Democrat Andy Kim, an Obama administration alum, brings the total number of New Jersey's red-to-blue House seat flips to a whopping four. There is now only one Republican in the Garden State's entire congressional delegation.
The Point: It's now obvious Democrats made significant gains in the House this year -- but we still don't know the final tally.
-- Lauren
| | Programming note: This is a special, campaign-focused edition of The Point newsletter, wrapping up the 2018 midterms. We will not have a campaign newsletter next Saturday, following the Thanksgiving holiday.
What do you think of the Campaign Edition? We're still experimenting with our Saturday newsletter's format and content, and we need your input! Drop us a line at lauren.dezenski@cnn.com and cillizza@cnn.com. | | |
QUESTION TIME WITH CHRIS CILLIZZA | | We're back for another round of picking Chris' brain about all things elections! This week, we parse the Florida recount, New Jersey's shrinking Republican representation and ... Beto 2020?
Lauren Dezenski: First: Florida remains embroiled in a chaotic, multi-layered recount battle. Do you see this as just a function of democracy or is Florida just really bad at running elections?
Chris Cillizza: A little of both!
Despite what Donald Trump would lead you to believe, what's happening in Florida is mandated by law. He's advocated that a winner be declared on election night but to do so would mean that lots of peoples' votes wouldn't be counted. What we've seen happen over the past 10 days is the process, generally speaking, working. There are mandated automatic recount rules in place when the margin between the two candidates is at a certain threshold. That's what happened in both the Senate and governor's races.
Broward County not being able to get its recount done by the deadline on Thursday is not a good look for the county. I think Florida has come a long way since the 2000 presidential recount. But obviously there is still more work to be done – as this recount process has shown.
LD: We saw a pretty significant sea change in New Jersey's representation in the House this year, with the delegation now 11 Democrats and only one Republican – a huge shift from just the previous term which had five Republicans. Is there anything to be made of these results out of Jersey?
CC: Well, there's a LOT of suburbs in New Jersey. People live in Jersey who commute to NYC AND Philly. I don't mean to offend New Jersey people, but, like, Jersey is just one big suburb. Which explains why Republicans got crushed in the state last Tuesday. Because the vast majority of Democratic gains in the House came in suburban districts -- whether they were in northern Virginia or Chicago or the Twin Cities or Philadelphia. The suburbs were where Democrats built their new House majority. Suburban voters made up 51% of all voters in the 2018 election and they split their vote 49% for Democrats and 49% for Republicans. In the last midterm – 2014 – Republicans won suburban voters by 12 points.
LD: Beto 2020: What are the odds?
CC: Slightly under 50-50?* I think he is going to think about it. And he should. Anyone who raises the sort of money O'Rourke was able to raise and comes as close as he was able to come in a Republican-friendly state like Texas has to think about running for president -- particularly given that the Democratic side of the race is totally and completely wide open.
What O'Rourke has to consider is this: He had a MAJOR moment in 2018. Can he turn that moment into a credible presidential bid even though he lost his race against Sen. Ted Cruz? And if he does pass on a national bid in 2020, how does he stay relevant until 2024 or maybe, if a Democrat gets elected, 2028? Politics is about taking advantage of your moment. This is clearly a moment for Beto.
*Actually now that I write and think about it, let me change my prediction to slightly higher than 50-50 that he runs... | | THE NEXT BIG RACE TO WATCH | |  | The Mississippi Senate contest between Democrat Mike Espy and Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith will probably be among the last 2018 races to be resolved. With neither candidate clearing the 50% threshold on Election Day, the race is headed to a runoff on November 27.
But several controversial comments from Hyde-Smith have shaped the race -- and runoff. The first was in November, when video surfaced of Hyde-Smith saying she would attend a "public hanging" with a donor. The comment struck a particularly harsh chord, given Mississippi's history with racial violence and the fact that her opponent is African-American.
Another video surfaced this week in which Hyde-Smith joked about making it more difficult for college students to vote: "And then they remind me, that there's a lot of liberal folks in those other schools who that maybe we don't want to vote," she says in the recording. "Maybe we want to make it just a little more difficult."
The runoff is drawing out-of-state and potential 2020 firepower. California's Kamala Harris plans to join Espy on the campaign trail today and New Jersey's Cory Booker will hit the stump for Espy on Monday.
Regardless, whoever wins will make history: Mississippi will have either its first female or African-American senator. | |
ARE YOU IN OR ARE YOU OUT? | | Richard Ojeda: "I'm Richard Ojeda and I'm running for the President of the United States of America." IN
Sherrod Brown: Has been hearing "sort of a crescendo of interest" in a presidential run. "We're hearing it increase, so we're thinking about it as a result ... we're not close to saying yes." NOT CLOSE TO SAYING YES
Mike Bloomberg: "Thanksgiving, Christmas and then maybe a few weeks into January — that's when you really gotta sit down, talk to your advisers and say, 'Look, do I have a chance?' I think I know why I would want to run. I think I know what I think this country should do and what I would do. But I just don't know whether it's possible." JUST DON'T KNOW
John Kasich: Has a "burning desire to make a difference for our country." BURNING DESIRE
Marianne Williamson: "I'm considering running as a candidate for the Democratic nomination for the presidency in 2020." CONSIDERING
Michelle Obama: "I'll say it here directly: I have no intention of running for office, ever." OUT | | | | | | |
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