| | | | What Elizabeth Warren's massive crowds tell us |  | | Over the weekend, Elizabeth Warren spoke in front of a reported 15,000 people at a campaign rally in Seattle.
It was, by her campaign's estimates, the single largest crowd the Massachusetts senator has drawn in her nearly year-long quest to be the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee. (The 15,000 number came from Warren's campaign, so take it with a grain of salt. But it's clear from the photos there were a WHOLE lot of people there.)
And the Seattle crowd wasn't an anomaly. In St. Paul, Minnesota, last week, Warren's campaign estimated 12,000 people turned out to see her. She had an estimated 4,000 people at a town hall in Los Angeles earlier this month.
So what does crowd size tell us -- exactly?
Well, that depends. Politicos will remember that in the late stages of the 2012 presidential campaign, Mitt Romney was convinced he was going to beat President Barack Obama because -- at least in part -- the size of the crowds coming to his rallies. Romney didn't win, or even come close.
On the other hand, the massive crowds that Obama was able to draw -- both as a surrogate for other candidates during the 2006 cycle and then in his own right as a presidential contender in 2008 -- were a telling indicator of the organic passion and energy he was creating within the electorate.
Where do Warren's crowds fit on that spectrum between Romney's false positive and Obama's, uh, true, positive? It's hard to say definitely at the moment, but here's what we know:
1. Being able to attract 15,000 people to a campaign rally in late August of an off-year is pretty impressive.
2. Crowd size, particularly in a primary, is a generally consistent indicator of organic energy.
3. Polling -- including a new Monmouth University national poll released on Monday -- suggests Warren is on the rise.
When you factor in that context, Warren's crowds of late almost certainly are an indicator of genuine momentum and excitement surrounding her candidacy. No matter what any of her rivals might say behind closed doors (or in public) about what Warren's crowds mean (or don't mean), you can be sure that each and every one of them would LOVE to be able to draw in the numbers that the Massachusetts senator is right now.
The Point: Yes, it's August 2019, not February 2020. But Warren is on a major roll -- and her ballooning crowd sizes are a reflection of that momentum.
-- Chris | | "I'm not going to lose that wealth on dreams, on windmills."
-- President Donald Trump on why he didn't attend a G7 session on climate change, saying he did not want to squander the US' wealth on far-flung ideas. Trump is also a noted skeptic of windmills. | | | Trial balloon
Example: Massachusetts Democrat Rep. Joe Kennedy III issued a trial balloon today -- saying he was considering running for the US Senate, challenging fellow Democrat Sen. Ed Markey.
Kennedy floated that balloon in a post on Facebook: "I haven't reached a decision yet -- that's the truth. ... I hear the folks who say I should wait my turn, but with due respect -- I'm not sure this is a moment for waiting."
It's a term especially popular in political science to describe "a project or scheme tentatively announced in order to test public opinion," according to Merriam-Webster.
Often you'll see trial balloons put out to test interest in a policy issue -- or a run for political office -- to gauge the response. If interested parties like what they hear, they will make the news official. Consider it testing the waters. | | Inside Elizabeth Warren's pitch to the Democratic establishment via JMart
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LAUREN'S CAMPAIGN TRAIL LATEST | | Bill de Blasio: Championed wholesale change in the nation's health care system with "Medicare For All" during last night's CNN town hall.
Steve Bullock: Made his pitch about being able to relate to rural voters as governor of Montana during his CNN town hall.
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Joe Walsh: Is officially challenging Trump in the GOP primary, saying he's running against the President "to make the moral case against him." | | | 12
The number of congressional Republicans who are leaving the House, whether by retirement, resignation or to seek another office. Wisconsin Rep. Sean Duffy announced today he will retire from Congress on September 23. | | | | | | |
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