| | | | An 80-seat House battlefield? | | On Monday in California, the leader of the Koch brothers-funded Americans for Prosperity delivered a sobering message to the organization's donors: The 2018 midterms are going to be bad.
"You're going against the tide," AFP president Tim Phillips told the crowd. "You're going against history."
Added Phillips: "One last number I'll add: 80. That's the number of seats we believe that will be competitive in the end, this fall. Eighty. Math's not my strong suit, but these are daunting numbers."
Phillips' prediction of an 80-seat House playing field is, broadly speaking, in keeping with where non-partisan analysts see the state of play. The Cook Political Report counts 86 seats as competitive or potentially competitive while Inside Elections rates 67 seats as competitive.
The problem for Republicans? Because of their massive gains in the 2010 and 2014 midterm elections, they have lots more seats to defend. Cook rates 66 Republican districts as competitive, as compared to just 20 for Democrats. Inside Elections puts 54 GOP seats in the competitive category and just 13 Democratic ones.
It follows then that as the playing field gets bigger, Republican vulnerability rises. Which is why an 80-seat playing field this November would likely be curtains for the Republican majority. (Democrats need to net 24 seats to retake the House.)
The best news for Republicans is that it's January 29. And the 2018 election is 281 days away. Politics -- especially in the age of Trump -- can pivot in a tweet, much less a month.
"If it were today, I think we would win," House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-California, said in an interview with The Washington Post Monday. But she added, "It's not today."
No, it is not. But, with Republican retirements -- 35 and counting with Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen's decision not to run on Monday -- showing no signs of slowing, it looks like the playing field in November is going to get bigger, maybe much bigger.
The Point: The number of competitive seats is getting bigger with each passing week. And it's an uneven growth, with Republicans looking at three times as many problematic seats to defend this fall. That's all bad news for Republicans' chances of holding their majority into 2019.
-- Chris | |  | | Happy Monday! As we've mentioned before, The Point is now on Instagram, thanks to CNN's Brenna Williams. Click on CNN Politics' Instagram story every Monday through Friday afternoon for more #content. | | From CNN's Mary Kay Mallonee, Laura Jarrett, Shimon Prokupecz and Dan Merica:
"FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe has told FBI staff he is stepping down effective Monday -- a move that surprised even those expecting his March retirement, sources tell CNN. McCabe was a central target of President Donald Trump's ire toward the FBI over its involvement in the investigation into potential collusion between his campaign and Russia during the 2016 election. He was eligible to retire in March, but with his accumulated leave, he was able to step down earlier."
Read more in CNN's fully story here. | | | Kesha's Grammys performance of "Praying" -- a single from "Rainbow," her first album after her sexual assault lawsuit against her former producer Dr. Luke -- was a powerful tearjerker. | | SPEAKING OF THE GRAMMYS... | | | Hillary Clinton made a surprise appearance on Sunday night in a Grammy Awards comedy bit that trolled President Donald Trump. The former presidential candidate -- along with Cher, Snoop Dogg, Cardi B, John Legend and DJ Khaled -- read excerpts from Michael Wolff's bombshell book, "Fire and Fury: Inside the Trump White House." Nikki Haley, the US ambassador to the United Nations, tweeted her disapproval. Here's Chris' take on that, btw.
Meanwhile, Orrin Hatch was actually at the Grammys, apparently living his best life. His office tweeted a picture of him (above) with the caption: "Senator Orrin Hatch, writer of laws but also songs, enjoying Childish Gambino, Lady Gaga, Kendrick Lamar, and more at the 60th annual Grammy Awards."
What a time. | | CNN's Andrea Diaz reported Monday that "Iowa lawmakers have proposed a bill that will require students to pass a citizenship exam to graduate high school. The test is the same one immigrants have to pass to become US citizens." CNN also created a quiz to see if you would be able to pass Iowa's test.
We -- Chris, Saba and Brenna -- took it. Chris and Saba both got 9's (Chris missed the Korean War question because he "read too fast!" and Saba missed the taxes question because she's still learning how to #adult). Brenna scored a 💯 (screenshot above).
Take the test and tell us your results. | | STATE OF THE UNION FIRSTS | | CNN's Jenny Hansler compiled all the State of the Union firsts, and Brenna put them in emoji form to make it easier for you: - ☝️: President George Washington delivered his "annual message" to Congress on January 8, 1790.
- 📻: President Calvin Coolidge: His first -- and only -- address in 1923 was the first to be broadcast nationally on the radio.
- 📽️: President Harry Truman was the first president to have his SOTU televised in 1947
- 📺:: President Lyndon B. Johnson's 1965 address was the first to be broadcast in prime time
- 💻 : President George W. Bush's address in 2002 was the first to be streamed on the internet.
Read more fun facts about the State of the Union in Jenny's full story here. | | Tomorrow's edition of The Point will land in your inboxes a little later due to the State of the Union address. Make sure to check your email after Trump's speech for the wrap-up.
Thanks for reading!
Also, you can watch the State of the Union address on Tuesday wherever you are: on TV, desktop, mobile devices, apps, CNNgo and more.
Coverage begins at 7 p.m. ET. | | | | Whenever there's a viral moment, you can count on The Point team to GIF it. But that's just one of the many reasons you should tell everyone you know to subscribe to The Point :) Happy Monday. | | We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Our authors for The Point are Chris Cillizza and Saba Hamedy. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris or Saba. Follow on Twitter: Chris and Saba. | | | | | | |
No comments:
Post a Comment