| | | | 5 reasons the government might actually shut down |  | | We're nine days out from a government shutdown and -- unlike the usual showdown mishigas -- there's plenty of reason to think the government might actually, you know, shut down come 11:59 p.m. on December 21.
And it's not just the uber-contentious Oval Office meeting between President Donald Trump, likely House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer on Tuesday that broadcast to the country just how far apart the two sides are when it comes to funding for the border and/or Trump's much ballyhooed wall.
Consider these factors:
1) Trump believes his political success was built on the border wall promise. He has already let his deadlines to secure full funding pass several times. It feels like this may be the time he draws a line in the sand and sticks to it.
2) Democrats have zero incentive to help. Until January 2019, Republicans control the Senate, the House and the White House. And Trump will still be President come 2019. Because of those two facts, the belief among Democrats is that to the extent people care -- more on that in a moment -- they will blame Republicans for a shutdown.
3) Lots of losing House Republicans are free agents. There are dozens and dozens of House Republicans who blame Trump -- and rightly so -- for their defeats this fall. All of them will be voting on any sort of proposal that comes up to avert the government shutdown. Can Trump depend on those Republicans to be for him? (Answer: Probably not)
4) It's the holidays. If ever there was a time when people were REALLY tuned out from politics in this politics-all-the-time age, it will be from Christmas to New Years. Which is, roughly, when the government shutdown would occur. That's not to say both sides won't blame the other for everything and insist the sky is falling. They will. It is to suggest voters might just shrug while drinking their eggnog and opening their presents.
5) This would be only a 25% shutdown. Congress has, somewhat miraculously, already funded three-quarters of the government thanks to the passage of a series of appropriations bills. The funding debate is really primarily, then, about the Department of Homeland Security and Trump's call for significant funding for the wall. If the government shut down, it would really only be a 1/4 government shutdown -- which might make people care less.
The Point: In the wake of Tuesday's stunning Oval Office scrap, the mood on Capitol Hill seemed to be one of resignation -- that a shutdown was coming and there wasn't much anyone could or would do about it.
-- Chris | | "Mr. Cohen pled guilt to a veritable smorgasbord of fraudulent conduct."
-- Judge William Pauley, listing each of the counts against Trump's former fixer Michael Cohen in court ... and also apparently quoting Charlotte's Web. | | |  | Julian Castro is *thisclose* to announcing a run for President -- and has a shiny new website to prove it.
The former Obama admin HUD secretary has announced an exploratory committee for a presidential run -- and will spend the next month publicly testing the waters for that would-be bid, he announced today.
Castro will make an official announcement on January 12 in Texas on whether he's entering the expected-to-be-crowded field.
Castro's news today basically breaks the 2020 seal on what is about to be a whirlwind month of presidential exploratory committees, announcements and, in some cases, decisions against running for president. | | Ruby Cramer finds Tom Steyer is looking for his 2020 team on LinkedIn
Joe Biden is going to take his sweet time, reports Gabe Debenedetti
Where are all those former Trump staffers? Plus: Paper dolls!!!
A local reckoning is coming for Pelosi opponent Seth Moulton
Ellen DeGeneres is sick of dancing
"Study finds female-led films outperform male ones"
DORA 2020
You know what Chris loves more than Post Malone? Post Malone Crocs. | | | DMX's cover of "Rudolph the Red Nosed Reindeer" will go down in history -- forever. | | With Michael Cohen's 36-month prison sentence handed down today, we have an update on where things stand in the overall Russia investigation:
4 People sentenced to prison in the Mueller investigation (counting Cohen)
7 The number of people who have pleaded guilty
36 The total number of people and entities that have been charged with crimes by the special counsel
Data courtesy of CNN's Marshall Cohen. | |
🗳WHAT'S HAPPENING IN NC-9? | | North Carolina's 9th Congressional District is in limbo.
Allegations of electoral fraud are still swirling and it looks like a re-do of the election is on the horizon.
But when that happens, however, is completely unclear.
CNN's Ryan Nobles reports from the district that "even though both Democrats and Republicans want a new election, to be clear, they don't have a say. This decision is still in the hands of the State Board of Elections."
The board's investigation "will include a public hearing in the coming days," Nobles writes. | | | | | | |
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