| | | | In Defense of 'America First' | | | President Trump's foreign policy is based on nationalism, but that's not such a bad thing, Michael Anton writes in a Foreign Policy essay outlining the "Trump doctrine." It's based on four pillars, as Anton identifies them: A recognition that populism is the result of globalization's infringements on national identity; a view that the liberal international system was great 50 years ago but offers only "diminishing returns" today; a consistent support for nationalist, self-interested policies by all nations, not just the US; and a belief that supporting nationalism is good for US interests, by making individual countries stronger. The liberal international system, and the homogenizing trend of globalization, weren't going to last forever, Anton argues; Trump's doctrine simply involves recognizing that and adapting. | | A March to War With Iran? | | | In the Trump administration's approach to Iran, there's more going on than oil sanctions: Joe Cirincione and Mary Kaszynski write at LobeLog of an under-the-radar messaging campaign, in which Trump's top foreign-policy figures have repeated dubious claims that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons and, importantly, have hyped up connections to al Qaeda, potentially to bolster a legal case for military action under the post-9/11 authorization of force. It's reminiscent of the march to war with Iraq over WMDs, they write, warning that claims are going uncontested in a distracted news environment—and cautioning the public not to "fall for it again." Iran, for its part, has ramped up its rhetoric and shaken up its military leadership, apparently in response to Trump's hardline positions, writes Shahir Shahidsaless of Middle East Eye. | | Global Warming Has Already Fueled Inequality | | | As climate activist Bill McKibben has put it, global warming has involved a rise in income inequality, with wealth concentrating among people like the Koch brothers. The same is true among countries, according to a new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, which finds that over 50 years, inequality between countries (comparing top and bottom deciles) grew by about 25%, compared to a theoretical world without global warming. "Hotter, poorer countries" have been less productive, while "cooler, wealthier countries" have benefited, the study finds. Those uneven economic consequences "promise to significantly complicate the politics of how nations and regions work together to address the looming dangers—or how they don't," James Temple writes in the MIT Technology Review. | | | As technology changes, war will change with it, and a New America Foundation report urges us to consider what that will look like. 3D-printed weapons could mean the end of nonproliferation, armed groups will be able to make their own drones, deep-fakes may enable new kinds of information warfare on occupying forces, a ballooning Internet of Things will lend new opportunities for cyberattacks, and AI will allow insurgent groups to master new technologies more quickly. In a strange-looking future that involves automation and human enhancements, the main lesson seems to be that insurgency will look very different—and current military thinking needs to adapt. | | Who's Responsible for Human Trafficking? | | | Human trafficking from Central America to the US generates hundreds of millions in revenue, according to a new RAND report—but the widely ranging estimate, $200 million to $2.3 billion, speaks to the opacity of human-trafficking networks, the authors write. Transnational criminal organizations are involved, RAND's researchers found, but they may not be the main culprits: Independent actors, ad-hoc groups, loose networks of smaller groups, and more-formalized networks are all involved in a landscape of human smugglers that's difficult to counter. | | | | | | |
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