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Wednesday, June 26, 2019

The Point: What to watch in tonight's first debate of the 2020 cycle


June 26, 2019  | by Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski
Welcome to the first of two special Democratic debate editions of The Point. 
The first round of debates in the 2020 cycle kicks off tonight at 9 Eastern from Miami, aired by NBC, MSNBC and Telemundo.

It's Cory Booker's moment (if he can seize it)

You can't watch 10 candidates for two hours. So here's the ONE candidate you need to watch tonight: Cory Booker.

The senator from New Jersey comes into tonight's debate with a bit of momentum -- thanks to a high-profile fight with Joe Biden last week over comments the former vice president made that praised the "civility" of his working relationship with the late segregationist Sen. James Eastland of Mississippi.

And because most of the front-running pack are in Thursday night's debate, Booker will have a prime spot on the debate stage -- near the center next to Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. That, plus his poll standing compared with the other eight candidates onstage, should allow Booker plenty of camera time and time to talk.

Booker also knows that he badly needs a moment to spark a campaign that hasn't lived up to expectations yet. As the New York Times wrote earlier this week of Booker:

"There have been breakout sensations, profound disappointments and examples of gritty resilience in the Democratic primary, but no candidate to date has been as simply confounding as the New Jersey senator, who has been sized up as presidential timber since he entered politics two decades ago. And few other contenders are under as much pressure to distinguish themselves at this debate, and the one next month, as he is."

There's a difference, of course, in knowing you need to create a moment in a debate and, well, actually creating a moment in a debate. And, to date, Booker hasn't been able to do that; he even backed off over the weekend from his back and forth with Biden.

Playing nice is overrated in politics. Voters always say they like candidates who have hopeful messages and don't attack their opponents. But they actually vote for candidates who draw contrasts and aren't afraid to mix it up.

In a field of this size -- 24 candidates -- differentiation (unless your name is "Joe Biden") is absolutely essential. And the way you differentiate yourself from the crowded pack is to make sure voters know a) what you believe and b) what your opponents believe. Booker has done the first part decently; he's nowhere on the second.

The Point: When you are where Booker is -- running in the middle of the chase pack -- you get only so many chances to make something happen to change your path in the race. Tonight is one of those chances for him. He needs to seize it.

-- Chris

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"We don't want to talk about hand size."

-- DNC Chair Tom Perez wants his party's debates to discuss real issues.

THE WILD CARD

Keep an eye on Beto O'Rourke.

Candidates eager to break through with Democratic primary voters will look to nail their answers tonight -- and create viral moments. 

At best, those moments allow them to draw free media attention and support from would-be voters. At worst, it'd be a memorable gaffe like "binders full of women" or that time Ben Carson and a bunch of other candidates got confused at the entrance to a GOP debate stage.

O'Rourke may have a serious lack of breakout moments in this presidential campaign so far, but those viral moments were a regular occurrence in his 2018 Senate campaign against Ted Cruz.

For example, the time during a town hall that he voiced support for NFL players kneeling during the National Anthem. There's also the time he said Cruz was "working for the clampdown," a reference to The Clash's 1979 song "The Clampdown." 

Tonight, EVERYONE onstage is going to be angling for their own moment in the viral spotlight. And O'Rourke has at least has done it before. 

THE KEY POLICY ISSUE 

Expect to hear climate change discussed tonight.

There will be 10 candidates onstage and two hours of airtime -- the parameters of the debate don't exactly make for incredibly nuanced policy vetting.

BUT here's why climate change will be a hot topic: Jay Inslee (at the second podium from the right onstage) is running his campaign around tackling climate change -- so you can expect him to steer his answers toward his signature issue.

Inslee has also already criticized Beto O'Rourke's voting record on aligning with oil companies in Congress (and both candidates happen to be onstage tonight). 

Plus, Miami, where the debates are being held tonight and Thursday, is one of the cities most vulnerable to climate change.

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

We made a Spotify playlist for debate night -- created entirely by suggestions from Chris' Twitter feed.

HOW DID THEY PREP?

Elizabeth Warren has worked to boil down her complex policy proposals into answers short enough to fit the debate's time constraints.

Cory Booker did some bicep curls and push-ups to "keep him motivated," according to an aide.

Amy Klobuchar watched a lot of tape, studying the 2016 Republican primary debates, which at times also included 10 candidates.

Bill de Blasio texted his son, Dante (who was New York state's debate champion in 2015), for advice.

WHAT'S EVERYONE ELSE UP TO?

Steve Bullock is among the three candidates who didn't make the cut for the debate stage (along with Seth Moulton and Wayne Messam) but he is sticking to the campaign trail. He's in Iowa for a live town hall this afternoon. Moulton and Messam will be in Miami anyway to do press. Former Rep. Joe Sestak of Pennsylvania entered the race too late to qualify for this initial set of debates.

YOUR DAILY GIF

From Brenna: "I'm kind of bummed that Rep. Seth Moulton won't be at the debates. Look at how animated he gets talking to ONE person (WaPo's Robert Costa). Imagine 10! Share The Point with someone you know who isn't in Miami!"
We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski. Follow Chris and Lauren on Twitter.
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