| | | | America's face is changing. Fast. |  | | In the nearly two decades between 2000 and 2018, more than 100 counties across the United States saw their white population slip under 50%, according to a Pew analysis of census information, the latest in a series of data points that make clear the country's demographics (and, eventually, its politics) are in a period of considerable change.
With the addition of the 109 counties that turned from majority white to majority non-white over the last 18 years, there are now 293 non-white majority counties in the United States. While that accounts for only 9% of the total counties in the United States, it's the change over time that is most interesting -- and where it's happening.
Two facts stand out in that regard:
1) While 109 counties went from majority white to majority non-white over the past 18 years, just two -- yes, TWO -- went from majority non-white to majority white. (They were Calhoun County in South Carolina and West Feliciana Parish in Louisiana.)
2) Some of the largest counties in the country are changing the fastest. As Pew concludes: "In 21 of the 25 biggest U.S. counties by population, nonwhite groups together make up more than half of residents. Eight of these counties were majority white in 2000 but are no longer: San Diego, Orange, Riverside and Sacramento (all in California), plus Clark (Nevada), Broward (Florida), Tarrant (Texas) and Wayne (Michigan)." And there are a handful of other huge counties (Fairfax in Virginia, Pima in Arizona, Milwaukee in Wisconsin) where the white population has sunk under 52% -- and could well go majority non-white in the next few years.
The pattern is clear. Big counties with lots and lots of people in them -- largely clustered in the south, southwest and west -- are rapidly being transformed from white-dominant populations to places where Hispanic, black and Asian faces make up the majority of residents.
What does this mean for politics? Well, a lot.
While President Donald Trump's 2016 election proved that predictions of demographic doom for Republicans were premature, it also highlighted the increasingly white nature of the GOP coalition. Whites made up 71% of all voters in 2016 -- their lowest percentage ever -- and Trump won that group by 20 points. He lost black voters (12% of the electorate) by 81 points. He lost Hispanics (11% of electorate) by 38 points. He lost Asians (4% of electorate) by 38 points.
The trends are clear. The country isn't getting any whiter. And the Republican coalition is growingly increasingly dependent on that shrinking white vote. (George W. Bush took 44% of the Hispanic vote in 2004.)
"America is changing demographically, and unless Republicans are able to grow our appeal the way GOP governors have done, the changes tilt the playing field even more in the Democratic direction." Know when that sentence was written -- and by who? It was in the wake of the 2012 election by a group of Republicans tasked by the Republican National Committee with conducting an autopsy of the party's losses.
They were right then. The Pew numbers suggest they are even more right now.
The Point: Demographics are destiny. The 2016 election didn't alter Republicans' mounting demographic problems, it just put them off. And Trump's presidency may well be worsening them.
-- Chris
| | "I think that's pretty obvious to everybody. It's all about space."
-- President Donald Trump, establishing the US Space Force in a Rose Garden ceremony. He called space the "next war-fighting domain."
🎧 Lauren has more on today's giant leap forward for Trump's Space Force dreams in the Point podcast 🚀 | | | The third Democratic debate is less than a month away (September 12, to be specific!) -- and now we officially know who will be there.
The following candidates will appear on stage from left to right: - Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar
- New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker
- South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg
- Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders
- Former Vice President Joe Biden
- Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren
- California Sen. Kamala Harris
- Entrepreneur Andrew Yang
- Former Texas Rep. Beto O'Rourke
- Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro
The debate will kick off at 8 p.m. Eastern and run for three hours, hosted by ABC News. | | Jim Mattis is starting to talk
The war story Joe Biden is telling on the campaign isn't, well, accurate
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What the 2020 candidates' schedules tell us about their strategies
Can the rich just keep getting richer?
Dabo!!
The Hold Steady rocks | | | New Sturgill Simpson music is always a cause to celebrate! | | THINK OF THE BIRDS, DARLING | |  | Donald Trump's war on windmills | | Long before becoming President, Donald Trump has had a public hatred of windmills. Chris takes us through Trump's feud with an inanimate object.
Stick with The Point on YouTube -- and subscribe! | |
LAUREN'S CAMPAIGN TRAIL LATEST | | Joe Biden: Defended his story about awarding a soldier a medal he recounts on the campaign trail, saying, "I don't understand what they're talking about, but the central point is it was absolutely accurate, what I said." The Washington Post reports that while Biden's story is moving, it is false.
Tom Steyer: Just released his tax returns, going back to 2009.
Kamala Harris: Announced a disability plan focusing on education and employment opportunities.
Tulsi Gabbard: May not have made the third debate stage, but she's ruled out continuing to run for president as an independent. | | Federal officials are bracing for Hurricane Dorian to smash into Florida's eastern coast, currently expected to hit as a Category 4 hurricane.
"This is going to be a big storm," said FEMA associate administrator Jeffrey Byard. "We're prepared for a big response."
President Trump canceled his trip to Poland to stay in the US to monitor the storm. Vice President Mike Pence will head to Poland in his stead. | | | | | | |
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