The Point: Why the Iowa caucuses could be a disaster

View this email in your browser   January 17, 2020  | by Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski Why the Iowa caucuses could be a disaster No one knows who is going to win the Iowa caucuses in 17 days' time.    But here's something to think about: What if more than one candidate wins? WHAT???? you ask. How can that be? (Cue "The Outsider" trailer.)   The answer: Unlike in past caucuses, when the Iowa Democratic Party released only the final delegate counts for each candidate, this year the party will be releasing two other numbers, too:   1. The raw votes in each precinct before the supporters of the nonviable candidates (those with less than 15% at each caucus site) are asked to choose someone else.   2. The final raw votes after all the backers of the nonviable candidates have decided on someone new (or decided not to pick someone new).   So instead of one number, there will be three. Why? Because in 2016, Bernie Sanders called on the state party to release the raw vote totals after Hillary Clinton was declared the winner because she had edged out the senator from Vermont in total delegates. (Clinton won 700.59 delegate equivalents to Sanders' 696.82.)   The Associated Press announced this week that it will declare a winner based on the state delegate totals -- as has always been the case.   But what about the campaigns? The conventional wisdom has been that there are three tickets out of Iowa -- for the top three finishers. But which top three? Most delegates? Most raw votes? Some combo?   It's of course possible that all of this hand-wringing is for nothing. The results -- of both the raw votes and the delegate counts -- may be straightforward and without any sort of confusion.   All the polling in Iowa, however, suggests this thing is going to be very close among the top four (or even five if you add Minnesota's Sen. Amy Klobuchar in there.) And if that happens, well, look out.   The Point: If you thought Iowa's caucus results (and what they mean) were confusing before, just wait.   -- Chris   And now, the week in 13 headlines:   Monday: Russians hack energy company that played major role in Trump Ukraine scandal 'It is stomach-churning': Progressives' dread rises as Warren and Sanders collide Tuesday: Yovanovitch calls for investigation into 'disturbing' surveillance as ex-diplomats outraged over her treatment ISIS carried out attacks on Iraq-Syria border posts after US suspended operations Wednesday: Exclusive: Warren accused Sanders in tense post-debate exchange of calling her a 'liar' on national TV Senate impeachment trial rules: No phones and no talking for senators Trump confirms July 4 fireworks at Mt. Rushmore, brushing aside environmental concerns Thursday: US troops were injured in Iran missile attack despite Pentagon initially saying there were no casualties DHS has requested Pentagon assistance to build 270 miles of border wall Pompeo stonewalls as evidence emerges of possible surveillance of ex-Ukraine ambassador Friday:  Senators prepare for contentious Tuesday session that could stretch hours and could go behind closed doors Trump adds Ken Starr and Alan Dershowitz to impeachment defense team Lewinsky offers colorful remark in apparent response to Starr joining Trump defense team QUOTE OF THE DAY "We served them a lot of food. They ate so much food we didn't know what the hell to do with them. They kept eating and eating." -- President Donald Trump describing the Clemson football team, which won last year's national championship. Trump treated the team to a spread of fast food.  VOTING IS HAPPENING! Voters in Minnesota can now cast some of the first ballots of the 2020 cycle.   Beginning Friday, Minnesota's early voting process allows people to vote absentee ahead of the state's Super Tuesday election date. Their votes won't be counted until the rest of the ballots are counted when polls close on March 3.  CHRIS' GOOD READS "You're a bunch of dopes and babies"   Susan Glasser on why the Senate trial won't be fair   "The Bernie Sanders fallacy"   Dog hunts alone   Tackling Derrick Henry   The day baseball lost its mind MUSICAL INTERLUDE NEW album -- "Marigold" -- by Pinegrove is out! LAUREN'S CAMPAIGN TRAIL LATEST     Coming over the next week: Senators have their last chance to campaign before the impeachment trial takes them effectively off the trail, Iowa draws basically everyone.   Saturday, January 18 Amy Klobuchar: Begins a three-day sprint through central and eastern Iowa Joe Biden: Wraps up day two campaigning in Iowa Mike Bloomberg: Campaigns during a climate week event in Salt Lake City, Utah Andrew Yang: Begins the first leg of his 17-day bus tour of Iowa  Elizabeth Warren: Embarks on day two of a four-day campaign tour through Iowa Tulsi Gabbard: Hosts a town hall in New Hampshire  Sunday, January 19 Michael Bennet: Campaigns in New Hampshire Bernie Sanders: Finishes his second day campaigning in New Hampshire  Monday, January 20 Elizabeth Warren: Campaigns in Columbia, South Carolina, with the Black Womxn For Activists in Columbia for the King Day at the Dome. Later, she heads to Iowa for the Black and Brown presidential forum. Black and Brown Democratic Presidential Forum: The last forum for Democratic candidates before the Iowa caucuses, featuring Michael Bennet, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, John Delaney, Amy Klobuchar, Deval Patrick, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Andrew Yang Tuesday, January 21 The Senate impeachment trial begins, taking Klobuchar, Sanders, Warren and Bennet off the campaign trail  Joe Biden: Campaigns in Iowa John Delaney: Continues his "Send a Message" tour in Iowa Wednesday, January 22 Pete Buttigieg: Finishes a three-day swing through Iowa   ONE BIG TOWN HALL COUNT 7 The number of CNN-hosted town halls with Democratic presidential candidates, set to happen on January 28 and 29, ahead of the Iowa caucuses.     You are receiving this message because you subscribed to CNN's The Point with Chris Cillizza newsletter. Unsubscribe from this list Check out other CNN Newsletters Share the Point Newsletter Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get The Point in your inbox. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski. You can follow Chris and Lauren on Twitter and connect with The Point on: Our mailing address is: One CNN Center Atlanta, GA 30303 Copyright © 2020 Cable News Network, Inc., All rights reserved.