| | | | Trump's Transgender Ban "Sounds Made Up" | | Even if President Trump follows up on his tweet announcing a ban on transgender Americans serving in the military, it is unlikely to pass muster with the courts, writes Noah Feldman for Bloomberg View. "A ban on service in the military is obviously a form of discrimination."
"The only conceivable way it could be constitutional to ban transgender people would be if the government had a strong reason to do so -- a real reason, not a pretext made up to cover irrational bias," Feldman writes.
"Trump's tweets mentioned two reasons. 'Our military must be focused on decisive and overwhelming victory,' he wrote, 'and cannot be burdened with tremendous medical costs and disruption that transgender [sic] in the military would entail.'
"Medical costs and disruption are thus the president's chosen rationales. But he did not offer any evidence in support of either proposition. That makes both look highly suspicious. To put it bluntly, both sound made up."
| | Why Putin Cares About Magnitsky | | "The Magnitsky Act is not, nor has it ever been, about adoptions," argues Julia Ioffe for The Atlantic. It's all about money – and that's why Vladimir Putin and Russia's elites are so upset about it.
"What made Russian officialdom so mad about the Magnitsky Act is that it was the first time that there was some kind of roadblock to getting stolen money to safety. In Russia, after all, officers and bureaucrats could steal it again, the same way they had stolen it in the first place: a raid, an extortion racket, a crooked court case with forged documents -- the possibilities are endless. Protecting the money meant getting it out of Russia. But what happens if you get it out of Russia and it's frozen by Western authorities?" Ioffe writes.
"Worse, it looked for a while like the Europeans were going to pass a similar law -- because Russians stash far more money in Europe than in the United States. And then 2014 hit. Putin invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea, and the United States and European Union teamed up to slap sanctions on some of Putin's closest lieutenants, freezing their assets and keeping them away from their beloved seaside villas and city condos."
| | China: Two Can Play at That Game | | | China should respond in kind to the U.S. Navy's freedom of navigation operations near disputed islands, the semi-official Global Times editorializes.
"The Chinese navy must carry out operations close to the U.S. and its allies, which can become a bargaining chip to urge the U.S. to stop its activities in China's coastal areas," the paper says.
"It may be difficult for the Chinese navy to practice reconnaissance around Naval Base San Diego on the U.S. west coast. But it can go to Okinawa, Yokosuka, and the coastal areas of Australia. A few days ago, a Chinese survey ship was spotted off the Queensland coast near where Australia and the U.S. were holding joint military exercises. It has disturbed the Australian opinion sphere. U.S. allies should be made to have such a bitter feeling." | | Macron's Biggest Challenge Is Coming Up Soon | | The biggest challenge to recently elected French President Emmanuel Macron – and his vow to reform the economy -- is coming up. But French voters already seem wary, writes Gavin Mortimer in the Spectator.
"How Macron stands up to [a planned demonstration by France's far left on September 23] will define his presidency. Many in France are skeptical that he will rise to the challenge; they want him to, but they believe he'll cave in when confronted with violent street protests. If he does, his credibility will be in tatters and it's unlikely he'll be able to repair it before the 2022 elections," Mortimer says.
Meanwhile, "Macron's approval rating has plummeted ten percentage points," making it "the biggest drop for a new leader since Chirac suffered a 15 percentage point dip in 1995. Macron would do well to remember that he was elected as much by default as by desire."
| | The World's Most Dangerous Stand-off? | | An ongoing border dispute between China and India "shows no sign of abating." Blame the "swelling ambition -- and nationalism -- of both countries," the New York Times reports.
"On a remote pass through Himalayan peaks, China and India, two nuclear-armed nations, have come near the brink of conflict over an unpaved road. It is one of the worst border disputes between the regional rivals in more than 30 years.
"The road stands on territory at the point where China, India and Bhutan meet. The standoff began last month when Bhutan, a close ally of India, discovered Chinese workers trying to extend the road. India responded by sending troops and equipment to halt the construction. China, the more powerful of the two, angrily denounced the move and demanded that India pull back.
"Now soldiers from the two powers are squaring off, separated by only a few hundred feet." "As events in the South China Sea and East China Sea also illustrate, Beijing signs agreements and treaties but does not comply with them," Chellaney says.
"Another issue is China's abiding faith in propaganda, extending from fake history claims to other countries' territories to disinformation operations intended to deceive and outmaneuver opponents. The reliance on propaganda blurs the line between fact and fiction to such an extent that, gradually, the Chinese state begins to believe its own propaganda and act upon it."
| | North Korea's Cyber Warriors Have a New Target | | North Korea's army of cyber warriors has splintered into different groups – and changed targets, Timothy Martin reports for the Wall Street Journal. Instead of focusing on trying to secure "military information, destabilize networks or intimidate," Pyongyang is dedicating its efforts to making money.
"The efforts include even low-level scams such as planting malware in South Korean ATMs to steal bank-card information," according to a report by the government-backed Korea Financial Security Institute. "That is behavior more typical of an organized-crime ring."
"North Korean operatives then sold the swiped data to people in Taiwan, China and Thailand who would try to withdraw money from ATMs in their own regions. But only several thousand dollars were withdrawn before South Korean law enforcement identified the ruse after six days," Martin writes.
| | Getting Tough on Venezuela Could Backfire | | Those urging the United States to get tough on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his regime should be careful what they wish for, argues Oliver Stuenkel in the Americas Quarterly. Doing so might actually bolster his government.
"Supporters of such a move argue that the havoc caused by broad sanctions would quickly lead to Maduro's ouster, setting the stage for a return to democracy. Yet with the Venezuelan government desperately in need of foreign culprits for the country's economic woes, a U.S. oil embargo would provide the ideal excuse for Maduro," Stuenkel says.
"As is the case with Cuba, being the target of U.S. sanctions tends to cause the so-called 'rally 'round the flag effect,' increasing the government's approval ratings and lending more credibility to the claims that the real cause of Venezuela's problems is foreign meddling." | | | | | | |
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