| | | | To Understand Putin's Ambitions, Ask This Country About Russia | | America's intelligence chiefs were unanimous in testifying on Capitol Hill Tuesday that Russia will target the midterm elections later this year. But one of the best insights for anyone wanting to understand Vladimir Putin's ambitions comes from Russia's own backyard, writes Leonid Bershidsky for Bloomberg View. Estonia's intelligence service may be tiny, but it knows what it's talking about.
"It's one of the Western world's few spy services with real Russia expertise, owed to its widespread fluency in the language; a deep understanding of the culture; and a relentless focus on its giant, dangerous neighbor," Bershidsky writes.
"The Estonian spy agency, unlike many other Russia watchers, doesn't write off the younger generation increasingly irritated by the Putin system's corruption as symbolized by the lavish lifestyles of senior officials. The report points out that the Kremlin's propaganda monopoly is finding it increasingly difficult to control the narrative in the internet age."
"One of the most welcome insights by Estonian intelligence is about Belarus, an overlooked area of Russian power projection. If the world is so concerned with Russian efforts to erode the sovereignty of nations around them, then why aren't we talking more about it taking control of the Belarus border and plans to build a military base? After losing a good deal of influence in Ukraine, tightening the noose on Belarus is essential for the Kremlin's plans to control the post-Soviet neighborhood."
| | America Needs to Stand Up to Turkey | | The United States and Turkey might be NATO partners, but a recent Turkish incursion into Syria suggests a clash between the two countries is no longer unthinkable. It's time for Washington to draw a clear line in the sand over Turkey's destabilizing behavior, suggest Eric Edelman and Jake Sullivan in Politico EU.
"Washington's goal should not be confrontation with Ankara for confrontation's sake, or just because it is 'mad' at [Turkish President Recep Tayyip] Erdoğan. Rather the aim should be establishing the conditions — and the ground rules — for constructive engagement," they write. "To that end, the White House should pair a firm approach with high-level engagement aimed at finding a better path forward. The recent U.S. strikes against pro-Syrian forces that attacked a base of Kurdish and U.S. troops could be used to demonstrate to Turkey American resolve to protect its own and partner forces, but only if expressed in a clear and direct dialogue with Turkish leadership."
"Ultimately, if Erdoğan is determined to destroy the US-Turkish alliance, there is nothing Trump or anyone can do to stop him. But being clear and consistent about the stakes involved can help ensure that Turkey's volatile leader does not stumble past the point of no return thinking the United States will not respond. Let's not wait to use our leverage until it is too late."
| | Working in a Protectionist World CONTENT BY  The wave of protectionism is now being embraced by executives around the world. 55% of global business leaders believe protectionist policies benefit business. But only 31% believe their government system can keep up with the pace of innovation. Learn more in GE's newly released 2018 Global Innovation Barometer. | | | How Merkel Failed Germany | | | The dramatic gains by the far-right in Germany's election last year should have been a wake-up call for the country's mainstream politicians. Instead, the months-long negotiations to form a coalition government revealed a ruling political class that is "unimaginative, bumbling, and craven," Yascha Mounk writes for Slate. One of the biggest culprits? Chancellor Angela Merkel, Mounk says.
"Half a year ago, shock elections showed that far-right populism is on the rise in Germany, too. But instead of working together to confront the populists and renew the system, a tired political elite has spent the past months squabbling over minor disagreements in an unseemly display of collective egotism. As a result, Germany still doesn't have a government—and voters are even angrier than they were last fall," Mounk argues.
"Like the rest of her country's supposed leaders, Merkel, for the most part, has perfectly inoffensive views about the world. But at the same time, the past months have also shown that, like the rest of the country's supposed leaders, she too lacks the courage and the imagination to fight for her values in an increasingly dangerous world." | | Want to Understand Why Syria Is So Dangerous Now? Look Here | | | A "scramble for control" over a shattered country has made Syria a potential flashpoint for major powers. To understand the complexity – and potential global implications of the crisis – look no further than the Kurdish-held Syrian enclave of Afrin, write Liz Sly and Loveday Morris in the Washington Post. "America's NATO ally Turkey is battling US-allied Kurds, who are receiving tacit support from the Syrian government. But the government is at the same time backing the tribal militias that have been attacking the US-allied Kurds and their US advisers in eastern Syria," they write. "Holding the overall balance of power is Russia, which became the dominant military power in Syria when it intervened on behalf of [Syrian President Bashar al-Assad] in 2015 and now is awkwardly playing the role of both combatant and peace broker. "But it is the significantly enhanced reach of Iran that poses the biggest danger of a wider conflict. Iran has provided the muscle in the form of manpower and money that enabled the Syrian government to reclaim most of the vast swaths of territory that fell out of government hands in the earliest years of the war, in the process expanding Iranian presence in Syria." | | Crime Is Down Big. Why Don't Americans Believe It? | | The uptick in violent crime the past couple of years in the United States risks overshadowing something important – overall crime, including violent crime, is at or near historic lows. The problem? Americans don't seem to think so, notes Justin Fox for Bloomberg View.
"Part of it is probably hometown bias. Americans think their local public school is great but public schools in general are terrible, and they appear to think similarly about crime. Then there's the way the media conveys information about crime. More Americans get their news from local television broadcasts than any other source, and the unofficial motto of local TV news is 'If it bleeds, it leads.' Finally, politicians have on occasion been known play up fears of crime because they think it can get them votes or help them pass legislation," Fox writes.
"There may well be reason to devote more law enforcement resources to combating MS-13, and there is at least some debate over whether undocumented immigrants are more likely to commit crimes (beyond the crime of being or remaining in the country illegally) than native-born Americans. But it is undisputed that immigrants in general are much less crime-prone than the native-born -- and that the sharp decline in violent crime in the 1990s coincided with a big wave of both legal and illegal immigration."
| | Gates on Foundations vs. Government | | Tough questions – that's the theme of the annual letter Bill and Melinda Gates released Tuesday about their foundation's work. The answer to one of the questions they regularly face underscores a fundamental difference between the work of government and foundations, they write for CNN Opinion.
"'If it's unfair that you have so much wealth, why don't you give it all to the government?' The answer is that we think there's always going to be a unique role for foundations. They're able to take a global view to find the greatest needs, take a long-term approach to solving tough problems and manage high-risk projects that governments can't take on and corporations won't," they write.
"If a government tries an idea that fails, someone wasn't doing their job -- and might lose his or her job in the next election cycle. Whereas if we don't try some ideas that fail, we're not doing our jobs." - Fareed sits down with Bill Gates on GPS to discuss the foundation's work, the "America First" principle, technology and more this Sunday at 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. ET on CNN.
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