| | | | Don't Bother Reading the Trump Firings Tea Leaves: Gerson | | The firing of Rex Tillerson this week has left many trying to read the tea leaves for what this might say about the Trump administration's foreign policy. But don't be fooled by these shake-ups – or surprise decisions like the plan to meet Kim Jong Un, writes Michael Gerson in the Washington Post. It's not about policy, it's all about psychology.
"We should hope that Mike Pompeo is wonderful at his new job and that a new approach to North Korea ends up succeeding. But it is difficult to view either change as evidence of something bigger.
Trump's guiding principles are a disdain for precedent, a preference for institutional chaos and an invincible trust in his own instincts," argue Gerson, who serve as President George W. Bush's speechwriter.
"The most damaging implication of all this is obvious. The world is a complex and chaotic place. People in the White House, including the president, need to control what limited amount is under their control. And this requires a working White House policy process, giving the most serious possible scrutiny to presidential decisions. The failure of past decisions is not an excuse for the reign of randomness. It is absurd to argue that, because the past 30 years of Korean policy haven't succeeded, a new policy should be chosen by throwing a dart at a dartboard." "Two years ago, majorities of voters in a majority of states chose to put Donald Trump in the White House not despite but largely because of the fact that he was an economic nationalist and campaigned on a foreign policy that would be neither as fecklessly grandiose as Mr. Bush's nor as hemmed in by humanitarian concerns as Barack Obama's. That President Trump wants his staff to help him carry out his commitments is an act of good faith, however much others might disagree with his policies," McCarthy writes.
| | Russians head to the polls Sunday in a race that appears all but certain to deliver another term for President Vladimir Putin. But while the result is widely seen as a foregone conclusion, officials "see turnout as a vital barometer of legitimacy," Andrew Osborn reports for Reuters. And they are going to extraordinary lengths to boost it.
"Vote in Russia's presidential election this Sunday or get hyper-inflation and Africans in the army. That is the surreal message in a viral video meant to encourage people to vote," Reuters reports.
"The clip, which has drawn accusations of racism and homophobia in some quarters, has been publicized by state TV and watched six million times online."
Officials "appear to be deploying what Russians call 'the whip and gingerbread' approach to ensure turnout is strong, cajoling the millions of voters who depend on the state for their wages and offering inducements to others.
"For the authorities, Russia's last parliamentary election, in 2016, was a wake-up call. The pro-Putin United Russia Party won a landslide victory, but turnout fell below 50 percent for the first time in the post-Soviet period amid voter apathy." - Watch analysis of the election, UK-Russia tensions, the new US sanctions, and more, on GPS this Sunday at 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. ET on CNN as Fareed hosts a live panel.
| | Why Putin Is Toxic…for Russia | | British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said Friday that it's "overwhelmingly likely" Vladimir Putin personally gave the order to use a nerve agent to attack former double agent Sergei Skripal. The "amateurishness" of the attack suggests otherwise, writes Owen Matthews in The Spectator. But after years of falsehoods, who's going to believe the Kremlin's denials anyway?
The attack, with its "spectacular collateral damage not only to the people of Salisbury but to Russia-UK relations, is more suggestive of a bungling group of Russian spooks on a mission of revenge. Novichok is extremely deadly, easily detectable, easily identifiable — the exact opposite of a stealth poison like polonium, which doctors spent 22 days trying to identify after it had been used to kill Alexander Litvinenko," Matthews writes.
"So what next? Britain isn't really sure: sanctions have been imposed and the government will have to wait for Russia's reaction. Putin might even be right in protesting innocence: one thing he does care deeply about is giant set-piece sporting events like the World Cup: he has invested billions to make it a success. It's far from clear why he would tarnish that vast effort to execute a single retired spy. But the problem with being a serial liar is that nobody believes you even when you're right. In the end, Putin's culture of lies is most toxic to Russia's own interests." "The harsh attitude of Western countries toward Russia resembles their unity in the face of major geopolitical and value challenges despite problems in their own camp. Any non-Western competitor could become their shared target, which is part of the current world order."
| | Why the Population Time Bomb Stopped Ticking | | The idea that the world is sitting on a population time bomb – that the number of people will grow beyond the planet's ability to accommodate them – has been one of the most enduring doomsday scenarios. But as fertility rates fall – especially in "supergiants" China and India – it is looking ever less likely to become reality, writes Noah Smith on Bloomberg View.
"When the rate is lower than about 2.1, it means total population will eventually stabilize and decline," Smith writes.
"The world is now approaching that magic level, thanks to a phenomenon known as the fertility transition. In most countries, total fertility falls from a high level of about six or seven children to two or below, and stays there. Once smaller families become the norm in a country or region, they very rarely go back up. There are a number of theories for why this happens. The shift from agriculture to urban life means less incentive for families to have kids to work on farms. Urban life also increases the cost of raising a kid. Higher education levels for women, freeing them from traditional gender norms, are probably a big factor as well. Importantly, none of these factors are temporary.
"In other words, the fertility transition probably represents the ultimate, final victory over the Malthusian threat."
| | Arab Leaders: Over the Hill and Almost Out of Time? | | It's hardly surprising that many Arabs feel their leaders are out of touch. There's a generation (or two, or three) between them, The Economist says.
"Of the 18 Arab countries and territories, nearly a third are ruled by old men in terminal decline. They are a stark contrast to the region's young population. Whereas the median age in the Arab world is 25, among Arab heads of state it is 72. Even when lucid, the old fogeys appear out of touch with their more progressive and increasingly frustrated young subjects. And their prolonged rule leaves deep uncertainty about who will one day replace them," The Economist says.
"Even the Arab world's lone true democracy has elected a nonagenarian. Beji Caid Essebsi, Tunisia's president, is the oldest Arab leader, having turned 91 last year. 'They have good genes,' jokes a journalist in Lebanon, where the president is older than the country. Or perhaps just good doctors. Mr Abbas quietly checked into a Baltimore hospital for tests in February; Sultan Qaboos had his cancer treated in Germany. Those options, needless to say, are not available to many of their citizens." | | | | | | |
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