| | | | Pompeo: The Next Nixon (In a Good Way)? | | Mike Pompeo's nomination as Secretary of State is widely seen as heralding a tougher US line on Iran that could see the nuclear deal scrapped. But Pompeo's hawkishness could actually be exactly what's needed for a breakthrough in ties, suggests Jason Rezaian in the Washington Post.
"The nuclear issue is the one that gets the most attention, but it's not the only one that needs discussing. What about our shared interest in combating Sunni extremists — the Islamic State and al Qaeda — in Syria and Iraq? What about Tehran's continued practice of taking American citizens hostage? There is no non-diplomatic process that will bring them home alive.
"It may seem unlikely right now, but Pompeo's appointment could offer an excellent opportunity for talking with Tehran. Pompeo's tough line in the past would give him the credibility among conservative Americans to make overtures to Iran. Think Nixon goes to China Part II," Rezaian writes.
"Even a tougher line, delivered directly and within the existing diplomatic framework, is far preferable to giving Tehran the silent treatment."
| | Is the White House Finally Getting Tough on Russia? | | In announcing a series of sanctions Thursday over Russian meddling in the 2016 election, the Trump administration has taken its "most significant action…against Moscow since President Trump took office," Peter Baker writes in The New York Times.
What do they mean in practice?
"The sanctions, targeting five Russian organizations and 19 individuals, will generally block them from traveling to the United States, freeze any assets in the country and bar American businesses and individuals from doing business with them. Among the organizations sanctioned were the Federal Security Service, the successor to the K.G.B. known by its Russian acronym F.S.B., and Russian military intelligence, known as G.R.U., although they, like several others, were previously penalized by Mr. Obama's administration for the Ukraine intervention.
"In addition to the election meddling, the attacks cited by the Treasury Department included the NotPetya cyberattack that caused billions of dollars in damage in the United States, Europe and Asia in what the department called 'the most destructive and costly cyberattack in history.' The United States and Britain formally blamed Russia for that cyberattack last month."
"The administration also took the unusual step of naming the Russian government as the force behind a series of intrusions into American power plants and the computer networks that control power grids." "[O]ur actions to date are in no way proportionate to Russian aggression which is increasingly bold. As [Democratic Senator Bob Menendez] explained, 'The Russian government continues to aggressively attack democratic institutions and incite destabilizing behavior; its brazen chemical weapons strike on British soil is the latest example of what will happen if there are no serious consequences for the Kremlin's actions. I expect to see additional sanctions.'
"Ironically, we are seeking stronger economic penalties from the European Union in the form of steel and aluminum tariffs than we are from Russia for an assault on our democracy. Moreover, we have seen nothing resembling a concerted plan to protect our election system."
"At his confirmation hearing for secretary of state, Mike Pompeo should be quizzed as to what stronger measures are possible and why we have been foot-dragging. We can only hope that his arrival at State heralds a new willingness to extract an economic and political price from Russia for its violation of international norms." | | The Lesson of Trump's Kudlow Pick? The GOP Is Out of Ideas | | | President Trump's decision to turn to Larry Kudlow to head his National Economic Council reflects a simple truth, argues Noah Smith for Bloomberg View. Aside from finding new ways to offer tax cuts for the wealthy, the Republican Party is running out of ideas. And that spells trouble for the GOP.
"Republicans' real problem isn't finding economic advisers to toe the Trumpist line. It's the broad unpopularity of the entire GOP economic program," Smith says. "In addition to being uneasy about increasing federal deficits, voters probably realize -- as most economists do -- that the power of additional tax cuts to generate economic growth is fading as the strategy is applied again and again."
"What kind of economic policies would the general public embrace? Large majorities want to see the rich pay higher taxes -- exactly the opposite of what Kudlow wants. Infrastructure investment is popular too, as are minimum wage hikes and a variety of antipoverty programs. In other words, an agenda that looks more like that of the Democrats than the GOP."
"Given that the GOP has committed itself to an unpopular policy program, why not hire a tax-cutting cheerleader and cable-TV personality to head the National Economic Council? The Republican bench of advisers is down to people like Kudlow because the Republican reserve of economic ideas is down to things that so many people…don't really want." | | What Trump Should Offer Kim | | If the Trump administration wants a breakthrough if and when the President meets Km Jong Un, then it will need to start replacing sticks with carrots, suggests Ted Galen Carpenter for The American Conservative. The prospects for success might be slim, but it's time to consider a grand bargain.
"The easiest concessions (a peace treaty to end the original Korean War, suspending the annual US-South Korean military exercises, and establishing diplomatic relations) should be implemented first. A partial lifting of sanctions and the conclusion of a bilateral nonaggression pact could follow relatively soon. All of those steps are reversible if the DPRK reneged on commitments it made," Carpenter writes.
"If Pyongyang proceeded toward abolition of its menacing programs, the lifting of all remaining sanctions, along with the phased withdrawal of US forces from South Korea, should be the penultimate step. Full and sustained implementation of North Korea's commitments (verified by international inspections) could then culminate with the termination of the US defense treaty with South Korea. Given Seoul's current and potential military capabilities, its alliance with Washington is an obsolete obligation in any case, so that US 'concession' is less dramatic than it might appear."
| | The Best Way to Beat Russia? Let It Win | | With ISIS on the back foot, the United States is now left pondering how to secure its interests in Syria and "prevent hard-fought US gains from being turned over to hostile powers" like Russia, writes Aaron Stein in Foreign Affairs. But if the United States is serious about beating Russia, then the best thing to do is to let Moscow "win".
"Washington's best bet is to negotiate a withdrawal of its own forces, which would leave Russia to manage the costs of a seven-year-old civil war. Granting Moscow this short-term win, moreover, would leave it on the hook for the antics of the odious Assad regime," Stein argues.
"Such a settlement would allow the United States to shift its focus toward planning for the long run, where its position is more favorable. Instead of getting dragged into yet more fighting in Syria, Washington should be opposing Russia by pursuing a policy of dual containment toward the latter's Middle Eastern allies, Damascus and Tehran. This policy could include financial sanctions on Moscow for its commitment to Assad, further raising the cost of reconstruction efforts while making Russia pay for its support of a murderous, rogue regime." | | | | | | |
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