Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Jason Miks.

March 2, 2018

Trump Is Opening Pandora's Box

President Trump's announcement that he plans to invoke national security concerns to slap a 25 percent tariff on imported steel risks opening Pandora's Box, suggests Edward Alden for the Council on Foreign Relations. Doing so could very well undermine the very economic system that the United States helped create.

"Under current global trade rules, the United States will get away with it. Article XXI of the World Trade Organization (WTO) agreements states that countries are free to take actions they deem essential to their security interests," Alden writes. "But WTO members have been cautious not to abuse that provision, recognizing the obvious danger. Now the United States—a country that has long championed the WTO system—will blow a giant loophole in the rules that other countries will eagerly walk through. China, India, Brazil and others are more than capable of inventing similar national security rationales for restricting imports."

Even if the US measures are ultimately more limited than feared, "great damage is being done. The United States built the architecture of the global economy in its image. The WTO was largely a US creation. Now Donald Trump, in a fit of impulsiveness, may tear it all down.

Fareed: America, Start Paying Attention to This

With all the drama of the Trump White House it's easy to overlook what's happening outside America. But in the case of China—and its new plan to drop presidential term limits—that would be a terrible mistake, Fareed writes in his latest Washington Post column.

China under Xi Jinping has "become more ambitious internationally. It is now the world's second-largest economy, the third-largest funder of the United Nations and the supplier of more peacekeepers than the other four permanent Security Council members combined. The country has been bulking up its military while devoting significant resources to far-flung cultural arms such as the Confucius Institute. It has announced loans and investment spending—the Belt and Road Initiative—that will be about 10 times the size of the Marshall Plan, by some estimates. It is determined to lead the world in fields such as solar and wind power, electric cars and artificial intelligence.

"Chinese scholars say China is entering a new era with a new system. After the Communist Party took power in 1949, it had roughly 30 years of Mao's rule. That was followed by roughly 30 years of Deng and his system. It is now clear that we are in the third era, which might be 30 years of Xi. Is anybody in Washington paying attention?"

Why Now's a Bad Time for Putin's Saber-Rattling

Vladimir Putin's "saber-rattling speech" Thursday extolling Russia's missile technology had echoes of the Cold War. The trouble is that the world is now much more complex – and Russia and the United States aren't as good at communicating as they used to be, suggests W.J. Hennigan for TIME.

"During the Cold War, a series of treaties between the US and Soviet Union were designed to avoid miscalculation and keep communication channels open—even though Washington and Moscow were sworn adversaries. Many of those treaties…no longer exist," Hennigan writes.

"Perhaps nowhere is the US-Russia breakdown more dangerous than in the chaos in Syria, where the two nations are on opposite sides of the bloody war. American warplanes have carried out thousands of airstrikes against ISIS militants as part of a coalition that has included NATO and Arab states' aircraft. Russian bombers conduct strikes to support the government of President Bashar Assad. Both nations also have hundreds of troops and military contractors on the ground to support their partners."

"An exercise in bluster and braggadocio." The Russian people don't appear to have an appetite for war or empire. But with a stagnant economy and waning enthusiasm, Putin may have few choices except to paint his country as under siege, writes Mark Galeotti for The Guardian.

"As his promises of a better tomorrow sound increasingly hollow, he is having to present Russia as under political, economic, informational and even civilizational threat. These weapons are as much as anything else a restatement of Putin's new credo: the world has become a dangerous place for Russians, they are only respected and safe when they are strong, and he is the only figure who can guarantee that," Galeotti writes.

The Evidence Is in Over Gun Control. Sort of...

The data is in, and the numbers have been crunched on gun control. The verdict? We need more data. That's the main takeaway from RAND researchers after reviewing thousands of studies on gun policy but finding just 62 met their criteria.

Still, RAND suggests that while the evidence is inconclusive on issues including mass shootings and licensing requirements, there is "supportive evidence that child-access prevention laws reduce firearm self-injuries (including suicides) and unintentional firearm injuries and deaths among children."

Also of note: RAND found "moderate evidence that stand-your-ground laws increase overall homicide rates and limited evidence that these laws increase firearm homicides in particular. In contrast, there is moderate evidence that laws prohibiting the purchase or possession of guns by individuals with some forms of mental illness reduce violent crime, and there is limited evidence that such laws reduce homicides in particular. There is also limited evidence these laws may reduce total suicides and firearm suicides."

Don't Panic About Italy (Yet)

The Italian general election taking place Sunday is the most important in Europe this year. But while a lurch to the extremes is unlikely thanks to new electoral rules, there could still be trouble ahead, the Financial Times editorializes.

"Whoever comes out on top needs to tackle deep-seated structural problems in the economy and in the financial sector with much greater vigor. None of the most likely outcomes — a ring-wing grouping, a grand coalition or a Eurosceptic government — appears to offer that. Meanwhile, the need to remain within EU fiscal constraints risks fueling the sense of lost sovereignty, furthering the rise of populist nationalists who have made Europe a scapegoat for Italy's woes," the Financial Times argues.

"[Silvio] Berlusconi is not the answer. His political career waxed in the mid-1990s in response to generalized mistrust of politicians. Like President Donald Trump in the US, he played the pluto-populist, the wealthy man of the people capable of standing up to vested interests and kick-starting the economy. He did neither. Instead, he abused his position to fend off the law.

"Italy deserves better. But it is running out of responsible political alternatives to secure its future at the heart of Europe."

Forward

Copyright © 2017 CNN

What did you like about today's Global Briefing? What did we miss? Let us know what you think: GlobalBriefing@cnn.com

unsubscribe from this list update subscription preferences