| | | | If the 2020 election were today, Trump would lose |  | | The 2020 election is 620 days away. Which, according to new state-by-state polling data from Gallup, is a very good thing for President Donald Trump.
The data paints a simple but ominous picture for Trump: If the presidential election were held today, he would almost certainly lose. Here's the key insight from the Gallup data: "Although much can change between now and Election Day 2020, a job approval rating of 50% or higher would presumably put Trump in good position to win a state in the presidential election. The 17 states with 50%+ approval ratings account for a combined total of 102 electoral votes. In contrast, the states in which Trump has an approval rating below 40% account for 201 electoral votes. "In order to get to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency, Trump would have to win all but one or two of the states in which his 2018 approval rating was between 41% and 49%."
Which puts a pretty fine point on the challenge facing Trump and his 2020 campaign team between now and November 3. But to put an even FINER point on it -- here are just a sampling of the states where Trump's approval rating is currently below 49%: Texas (41%), Pennsylvania (42%), Michigan (42%) and Florida (43%). Those four states have 103 electoral votes between them. And Trump won ALL of them in 2016.
The fundamental problem that the Gallup data points to is that Trump's approval rating is strongest in small-population states. Of the 10 states where Gallup found Trump's approval was the highest in 2018, the one with the most electoral votes is Tennessee, with 11. Those 10 states have a combined 57 electoral votes. (The 10 states where Trump is the least popular in the Gallup numbers have a total of 173 electoral votes.)
Now. Approval rating is obviously not purely predictive of vote. After all, Trump won the 2016 election even though only 38% of voters viewed him favorably, according to exit polling. But if you are Trump, these numbers have to worry you. It suggests he has LOTS of work to do in the next 620 days.
The Point: Predicting whether Donald Trump can win is a dicey proposition, as he proved in 2016. But these poll numbers paint a relatively grim outlook for the incumbent to win a second term.
-- Chris
Below, the week in 18 headlines. Monday: Tuesday: Wednesday: Thursday: Friday: | | "I have nothing to apologize for, Dave."
-- US Rep. Steve King of Iowa, recently under fire for his statements in The New York Times that appeared to defended white nationalism, dug in his heels in a recent interview -- and committed to running for re-election for a 10th term in 2020. | | | COHEN FINALLY SPEAKS ... NEXT WEEK! | | Donald Trump's former personal attorney Michael Cohen is scheduled to testify to Congress three different times next week (barring any sort of delay...).
When and where is that happening? Glad you asked. Here's what we know so far: - Tuesday -- Cohen will sit with the Senate Intelligence Committee. It will be closed-door testimony, meaning no cameras or press in the room.
- Wednesday -- Cohen will testify to the House Oversight Committee. It will be public -- meaning cameras, press and a whole lot of coverage.
- Thursday -- Cohen will be back behind closed doors with the House Intelligence Committee.
| | There's already drama in Trump's 2020 reelection campaign
Is peer pressure the key to Democrats beating Trump in 2020? asks Amy Chozick
Sasha Issenberg on what a Beto presidential campaign would look like
A nice visual representation of the Mueller probe to date, via Philip Bump
Who is Nomiki Konst?
This New York Times story on the murder of Emmett Till and everything it has meant is incredible
As a "Planet Earth" and "Blue Planet" fanboy, this makes me happy. | | | Phoebe Bridgers covered The Cure's "Friday I'm in Love." And, yes, it is very good. Happy Friday! | | A person in a parrot suit spiced things up for the reporters staking out the DC district court house today.
"Someone in a parrot costume went up to the door," writes CNN's Sam Fossum. "They 'banged' their beak against the glass then showed us their parrot butt. ... I assume someone inside is making fun of the press out here."
Reporters are set up outside the courthouse in anticipation of a filing from Robert Mueller's investigators about Paul Manafort that could have some major news. With a midnight deadline, we still don't know exactly when the filing will happen today.
But in the meantime, that precocious parrot gave reporters something to squawk about. | | Cory Booker: Is fundraising for Democrat Dan McCready in the upcoming redo of the NC-9 House race.
Amy Klobuchar: Another story detailing a difficult work environment with the senator from Minnesota is out -- this time The New York Times reports on an instance that involves staffers, a hair comb and a salad. | | New Mexico is currently grappling with what to do with its time.
A year-round daylight saving time bill just passed the New Mexico Senate, sending it into direct conflict with the House's already-passed provision creating year-round standard time, notes the Santa Fe New Mexican's Andrew Oxford.
Albuquerque state Sen. Bill Payne took a more nihilist take on it all: "Time is kind of an artificial construct anyways." | | | | | | |
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