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Monday, February 11, 2019

The Point: The 2020 Democratic announcements, ranked


February 11, 2019  | by Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski

The 2020 Democratic announcements, ranked

This weekend was a busy one on the 2020 campaign trail, with two more Democrats -- Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren -- joining the race officially. There are now seven main Democrats running for the party nod, with at least twice that number either officially or unofficially exploring a bid.

With so many candidates getting in the race, it's worth looking at who did it best. (Nota bene: Campaign announcements don't make or break a campaign. But they do provide -- or not -- some early momentum among donors, activists and the media.) By "best" I mean some combination of a) drew significant and prolonged media attention b) reached people who previously didn't know anything about them c) pushed a message they plan to run on d) created a memorable moment (or two) and e) made some measurable difference in the polls.

It goes without saying that this is a subjective measure. But here we go anyway!

1. Kamala Harris: From the California senator's decision to announce on Martin Luther King Jr. Day (and the same week as Shirley Chisholm's 1972 presidential announcement) to her making her first early state campaign stop in South Carolina to the 20,000+ people who came to Harris' formal announcement in Oakland to her rapid bump in national polling, this announcement is without question the leader in the clubhouse right now.

2. Amy Klobuchar: The image of the Minnesota senator announcing in the midst of a snowstorm isn't one anybody is going to forget any time soon. Klobuchar went into her campaign announcement with a name ID problem; she comes out of it with people at least knowing she's the one who announced in the snow -- which is a win for her.

3. Cory Booker: The New Jersey senator didn't need a lot of glitz in his announcement -- given that the knock on him is that he's a show horse. So he went local -- very local -- announcing in Newark, the town where he launched his political career and where he still lives. That Booker chose February 1 -- the first day of Black History Month -- made for a bit of nice symbolism as well.

4. Julian Castro: When you are one of the least well-known candidates who are regarded as having some chance at the nomination, the sooner you get into the presidential race, the better. To his credit, Castro, the former mayor of San Antonio, grasped that reality -- and got into the race way back on January 12. And he didn't screw around: He just got in -- which is good when it comes to convincing people you are in it to win it.

5. Elizabeth Warren: Ask yourself this: Which candidate who announced for president over the weekend got better press -- Klobuchar or Warren? It's Klobuchar in a romp, right? Given how problematic the run-up to Warren's campaign has been -- the Native American issue -- she probably just wanted to formally get into the race and get it over with. Mission accomplished, I guess.

6. John Delaney: Take a guess when the former Maryland congressman announced for president? It was July 28, 2017!  He's been running for president for more than 18 months! 

7. Tulsi Gabbard: The Hawaii congresswoman kind of, sort of announced in an interview with CNN's Van Jones on January 12. And/but she also announced via video on January 25. And by January 29, Politico ran a story headlined "Tulsi Gabbard Campaign in Disarray." Not good.

The Point: How you start doesn't always predict how you'll finish. But you'd much rather get off to a good start than a bad one in something as all-encompassing as a presidential campaign.

-- Chris

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"I think it gives a lot of people joy, and we need more joy."

-- Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris apparently taking the Marie Kondo approach to marijuana while giving her take on the drug to New York-based radio show "The Breakfast Club."

A TEXAS SHOWDOWN

Is this town big enough for the both of 'em? We'll find out tonight, when potential presidential contender Beto O'Rourke counters President Donald Trump's El Paso campaign rally with an event of his own.

O'Rourke is participating in a march organized by the Women's March El Paso around Trump's rally; O'Rourke is scheduled to speak at the rally and may even play with one of the bands there. 

For the record, O'Rourke does NOT plan to announce any presidential intentions tonight.

CHRIS' GOOD READS

Is Joe Biden the real 2020 front-runnner? asks Alex Roarty

Can Kamala Harris be everything to everyone?

Want to be president? Here are the best down-ballot offices to run for, via 538's Nathaniel Rakich

Ben Widdicombe on how far some people will go to keep their names out of the news

Donut Sticks? Yes, please.

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

Echo Collective covered Radiohead's "Amnesiac." And it is GOOD.

INSTA POINT

Today's topic: Why doesn't Ralph Northam just stop talking?

FACTS FIRST ✅

CNN Fact Checker Holmes Lybrand returns for another look at President Trump's claims; this time, around global warming. Have at it, Holmes:

In a tweet (where else?) yesterday, Trump suggested that a February snowstorm in Minneapolis was a clear sign that global warming doesn't exist.
 
First things first. Climate and weather are not the same. Climate is the measurement of weather over time. NOAA uses the analogy of clothing to explain the difference: climate is your entire wardrobe -- with raincoats, shorts, sweaters, etc. -- and weather is what you're wearing today. Only looking at what you're wearing today doesn't give you a picture of what all you'll wear this year. 

Climate scientists look at global climate to determine current rates of global warming. (And by the way, the last five years have been the warmest on record.)
 
Some scientist think global warming might actually cause extreme weather, including record colds. But the link is debated among scientists and more research is required. 
 
All in all, Trump's conflation of weather and climate adds more and more confusion around the complex issue of global warming. 

Want to see more fact checks? Let us know what you'd like Holmes to check out next at holmes.lybrand@cnn.com.

LAUREN'S 2020 LATEST

Amy Klobuchar: After being instantly dubbed by Trump as a "snowman(woman)" -- Klobuchar will also participate in the third CNN town hall, this time in New Hampshire hosted by Don Lemon on February 18.

Seth Moulton: Fresh off a failed House leadership coup and a trip to New Hampshire, the Massachusetts congressman is "thinking about running for president." He's giving a big foreign policy speech at the Brookings Institute on Tuesday morning, too.

Joe Biden: Is participating in an event with presidential historian Jon Meacham on February 26 at the University of Delaware. The two will ponder Meacham's book "The Soul of America: The Battle for Our Better Angels."

Iowa caucuses: A non-candidate entry! The Iowa Democratic Party plans to hold six "virtual caucuses" for voters who can't attend the 2020 caucuses. Ten percent of the state's delegates will be awarded through these caucuses, to be held over the phone, according to the party.

I SAW THE SIGN

We're not just entering a new campaign cycle. It's also a new era of political advertising and design. CNN's Hunter Schwarz has more on the new rules of campaign design:

"In a crowded race without a definitive early front-runner, 2020 logos so far seem directed at building name ID, their color schemes optimized to stand out against other campaign signs on the sides of roads in Des Moines or Manchester."

YOUR DAILY GIF

From Brenna: "Matt Whitaker's readers are a bold choice. Just a reminder that it's only Monday, so buckle down because you've got a whole lotta week ahead of you. Share The Point with someone you know who needs a distraction to make the week go faster."
We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski. Follow Chris and Lauren on Twitter.
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