| | | | A Permanent Downfall for America? | | American foreign policy has seen its share of crises, but this time things are different, Daniel Drezner argues in Foreign Affairs: President Trump's alienation of allies and unpredictable policy choices are not only damaging, they're a symptom of a problem that will outlast him.
US foreign policy has typically regressed to a mean, as liberals and hawks fight it out, but thanks to domestic political polarization, that's no longer the case; America is now poised to "whipsaw" between Trump-style presidents and socialist successors. The possibility of this has undone American credibility, and allies and rivals alike will simply move on, with American influence irreparably weakened, Drezner writes. | | Xi's Winning Trade-War Strategy | | As the US and China inch toward a deal on trade, it appears President Trump is in retreat, Bloomberg's Noah Smith writes, as tariffs have cost US producers and consumers. In that light, it looks like Trump will settle for a small-scale deal, Minxin Pei writes in the Nikkei Asian Review—a victory for Chinese President Xi Jinping, as it means China will likely avoid big, structural concessions on how it does business.
It's a sign that Xi's strategy—stalling for time—has worked. That's important not only because it means a better deal for China, but because it's given Xi time to contemplate a bigger question, according to Pei: Whether to further integrate China's economy with America's or turn inward, girding for future trade conflicts. | | Religion on Display in Indonesia's Election | | | The world's third-largest democracy (and fourth-largest country) will vote in a massively complicated single-day election tomorrow—one that has reflected disturbing trends in the country's political culture, Stefania Palma writes in the Financial Times.
Indonesia has the world's largest Muslim population, and there are signs the country is becoming less religiously tolerant, Palma writes: After the blasphemy prosecution of Jakarta's Christian governor, incumbent President Joko Widodo chose as his running mate a cleric who championed that prosecution case. Widodo has played the "religion card" to ward off attacks at not being sufficiently Muslim, Palma writes—and whatever the result, the election has seen the rise of intolerant elements in a large, still-emerging democracy. | | | The rise of comedian Volodymyr Zelensky (who advanced to an April 21 presidential runoff election) might be a good thing for Ukrainian democracy, Andreas Umland writes at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Zelensky is a populist, but not of the authoritarian genre, and his total lack of experience could be a silver lining, Umland writes: Ukrainian civil-society groups, which have proven effective in the past, will have to play a larger role in steering the country if Zelensky becomes president—a benefit, in the long run, after Ukraine's ruling class has proven unreliable. | | What Notre Dame's Fire Means for Macron | | The fire at Notre Dame puts French President Emmanuel Macron in a tricky position, writes Jonathan Miller in The Spectator: It will provoke a sense of shame and outrage among the French, and it risks symbolizing a presidency in flames; at the same time, Macron now finds himself as the voice of a grieving nation.
The fire will supply yet another test for the French president. He is still in the process of responding to the crisis over the gilets-jaunes, and protests scheduled in Paris for this weekend will reveal whether the fire has calmed any of France's domestic tensions, John Lichfield writes in Politico Europe. | | | | | | |
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