Despite a cloud of controversy over the beginnings of a possible 2020 campaign, Joe Biden got some sunny news in a poll of California Democrats out Wednesday. A whopping 71% of Golden State Democrats said the fact that Biden has been accused of touching women in a way that made them feel uncomfortable was not a serious issue, according to a new Quinnipiac poll. The number is surely welcome news to Biden's team, which has been seeking to respond to allegations by two women that the former vice president touched them inappropriately. Yes, this is a state-specific poll, but it's not just any state. California is delegate-rich (with 55 Electoral College votes) and a candidate's in-state support can give us a better idea of where things could be headed for a potential candidate than a nationwide favorability poll. Because, you know, the Electoral College. The poll also found 26% support for Biden among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independent voters, meaning Biden's also the party's front-runner in California (for now). And this far out, that's good news for the former VP. Especially since Biden's up against California native Kamala Harris, who's polling in third with 17% (Bernie Sanders separates the two, with 18% support). As polling pro Grace Sparks wrote back in December, history shows it is a VERY good thing to be at the front of the pack this far out. In open primaries since 1996, "the candidate who went on to win their primary was in the top three of an aggregate of polls taken between November (post-election) and January (two years before the election) 7 out of 9 times." The Point: After a bruising news cycle, Biden's still got the momentum -- now he just needs to make his run official. -- Lauren |
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