View this email in your browser Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good   June 18, 2019 Hong Kong's Collision Course Hong Kong's protesters have won praise for their (perhaps temporary) victory—the Financial Times called them an "example of moral and political boldness" in cynical times—but Deng Yuwen offers a less optimistic view in a South China Morning Post op-ed. The protesters may be squaring off, most directly, with Hong Kong's chief executive and the proposed extradition law, but their true opponent is the juggernaut of Beijing. Yuwen argues that even if the protests ultimately succeed, they will only threaten China and provoke it to exert more control over Hong Kong. It's part of an inevitable trajectory, Yuwen writes: As China's economy grows, Hong Kong will become more dependent and will eventually be incorporated further into the mainland's system. In a US-Iran War, al Qaeda Would Win If the US goes to war with Iran, one winner will be al Qaeda, Robert Gaines and Scott Horton write in The National Interest. "There is little doubt that Osama bin Laden would have loved to see the United States attack and overthrow another of al Qaeda's enemies … and sow a whole new generation of sectarian war, and warriors, throughout formerly stable, opposition-held Iran," they write. The US has missed opportunities to cooperate with Iran, Gaines and Horton write, as Tehran offered itself up as an ally against al Qaeda after 9/11. It may be appropriate to see Iran as aggressive and reckless—Afshon Ostovar writes in Foreign Policy that Iran has a history of escalating tensions with America—but if the US is drawn into another Middle East quagmire, it will only achieve the long-term strategic aim bin Laden pursued, Gaines and Horton argue. Putting the 'State' in 'Islamic State' ISIS may have governed by terror and atrocity, but Tom Stevenson writes in a London Review of Books essay that there are lessons and warnings in the trove of administrative documents the caliphate left behind, which are now being examined by researchers and journalists. "Some of what [ISIS] offered the population it ruled was based on the benefits of a high taxation economy and central planning," Stevenson writes, noting the level of detail with which ISIS regulated its administrative state and economy, from limiting pharmacists' profits to prescribing land use for crops. In some cases, ISIS improved administration in the areas it controlled, Stevenson writes; one lesson, from its documents, is that ISIS was able to capitalize on both Sunni grievances and poor governance in the region. To dismiss the notion that ISIS, or a variant, could use the same model in the future would be foolish, he argues. World Population Will Plateau, But Growth Is Still a Problem The world's population (which sits at 7.7 billion) will hit 10.9 billion at the century's end, according to estimates from a new UN report, but rates of growth will diminish by 2100 and world population could begin to plateau due to low fertility rates. The bad news: Until then, rapid growth will continue to put a strain on countries and pose a hurdle in meeting the UN's Sustainable Development Goals. India is set to overtake China as the world's most populous country by around 2027, sub-Saharan Africa is the only region that figures to sustain rapid population growth through 2100, and the world is getting older, the study finds, reporting that people aged 65 and older outnumbered children under five for the first time ever in 2018. The graph below (taken from the report) shows total population and growth rates: Taking immigration flows into account, the map below shows which countries will see boosts due to both natural population increases and new immigrants arriving: Share Tweet Fwd unsubscribe from this list update subscription preferences  Copyright © 2019 Cable News Network, Inc. A WarnerMedia Company., All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you subscribed to CNN newsletters. Our mailing address is: Cable News Network, Inc. A WarnerMedia Company. One CNN Center Atlanta, GA 30303 Add us to your address book What did you like about today's Global Briefing? What did we miss? Let us know what you think: GlobalBriefing@cnn.com Sign up to get updates on your favorite CNN Original Series, special CNN news coverage and other newsletters.​   Sign Up for Fareed's Global Briefing