June 3, 2019 | by Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski

Something happened in Iowa today that will matter in 2020

To win back the Senate next November, Democrats need to net three seats (if they beat Donald Trump) or four (if they don't).

The numbers -- 22 Republican seats up, just 12 Democratic ones -- suggest this is eminently doable. And it might be! But the actual GOP-held seats are less appealing for Democrats than you might think, with only Colorado and Arizona virtually certain to be tight contests.

All of which brings me to Monday in Iowa, where businesswoman Theresa Greenfield (D) announced that she is running against Sen. Joni Ernst (R) in 2020. Greenfield released a video touting herself as the daughter of a crop duster: "I'm a farm kid with farm kid values ready to fight for working people," she tweeted.

Greenfield isn't a known name nationally, or even really in Iowa. To the extent anyone in political circles knows her, it's for her botched campaign for the state's third district in 2018. Greenfield was forced to drop from that race after she became aware that her campaign manager had falsified a series of signatures on the petitions to qualify her for the ballot. (Also worth noting: Democrats tried to convince freshman Rep. Cindy Axne to run.)

And Ernst doesn't appear hugely vulnerable either. A Des Moines Register poll conducted earlier this year showed almost 6 in 10 Hawkeye State voters approved of the job she was doing -- a strong rating in a political environment in which incumbents are rarely that well-regarded.

But, but, but: For Democrats to have a legitimate chance of winning back the Senate, they need to grow the playing field beyond just Colorado and Arizona. (That's especially true when you consider Democrats have the extremely difficult task of trying to defend a seat in Alabama.) And Iowa is a prime candidate for that Democratic expansion (along with North Carolina and maybe Georgia).

While President Donald Trump carried the state by 9 points in 2016, Democrats flipped two Republican-controlled House seats and very nearly beat Rep. Steve King (R) to secure unanimous control of the four-person congressional delegation two years later. Trump's numbers in Iowa now also look very little like they did in 2016; just 45% approved of the job he was doing in Gallup's 2018 state-by-state polling.

Then there's this: Trump's ongoing trade war with China deeply affects Iowa's farmers. An Iowa State University study estimated that total losses to the state's farmers from the tariff tete-a-tete could be upwards of $2 billion.

All of which means national Democrats badly need Greenfield to make this a real race against Ernst.

The Point: Democrats need more races to come online to have a realistic chance at the Senate majority. And Iowa is at the top of the list.

-- Chris

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"Um look, I wasn't really involved in that."

-- Jared Kushner's when asked whether his father-in-law's birther effort was racist. This was one of the 29 most eyebrow-raising lines from Kushner's recent Axios/HBO interview.

INTRODUCING: THE WORD OF THE DAY!

Welcome to a new feature called The Point Dictionary Word of the Day, where we define a word or phrase in the national political conversation. Today's term is ...

Cattle call

(noun) Defined as a "mass audition of actors" by Merriam-Webster, it's used on the campaign trail to describe political events that draw a lot of candidates, and where they'll each usually be given time to speak to the assembled crowd.

What's considered a cattle call?

This weekend's Iowa Democratic Party Hall of Fame event -- which honors Democratic activists in the state -- already has 17 candidates planning to attend, per the Des Moines Register. Or there's the Clyburn Fish Fry in South Carolina later this month, billed as a "free event ... known for tons of fried fish, the Electric Slide, and old-fashioned politicking."

Use it in a sentence:

The California Democratic Party's Convention this weekend was a cattle call that drew 14 candidates -- but Joe Biden was noticeably absent.

Have a word or phrase you want to see defined by The Point team? Drop us a line! Lauren.dezenski@cnn.com.

CHRIS' GOOD READS

It's been 84 days since the last White House daily press briefing

Joe Biden's first presidential run was a bigger disaster than I remember

David Siders on why Biden is in a class all his own in the 2020 race

Is "Chernobyl" actually like Chernobyl?

Florida man, explained

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

Bon Iver -- aka Justin Vernon -- has two new songs: "Hey Ma" and "U (Man Like)." And, yes, he still totally rules.

LUKE USES THE FORCE

The actor famous for playing Luke Skywalker is no fan of a certain South Carolina senator.

Mark Hamill took to Twitter to reach out to Jaime Harrison, the Democrat challenging Sen. Lindsey Graham, writing "I'll give you a MILLION likes & you'll be my 2nd favorite Harrison."

Hammill signed the digital missive with a camel emoji and a play on his name: "Your potential new #FanBoy, Mar 🐪 #FORCEHimOuttaTheSenate."

LAUREN'S CAMPAIGN TRAIL LATEST

John Hickenlooper: Was booed by California Democrats at their state convention this weekend when he expressed doubt about government-run health care by saying, "socialism is not the answer."

Kirsten Gillibrand: Used her Fox News town hall this weekend to spar with the network over its coverage of abortion issues.

Larry Hogan: Will not challenge Trump in the Republican primary, the Maryland governor announced on Twitter.

Pete Buttigieg: Is participating in a "Hardball" town hall tonight with Chris Matthews from California.

Eric Swalwell: Said during his CNN town hall that AG William Barr and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin should be impeached.

Donald Trump: Is officially kicking off his presidential campaign with a rally on June 18 in Orlando. VP Mike Pence and both of their spouses will be on hand for the event.

Jay Inslee: Released a plan on immigration, which would reverse many of Trump's signature policies.

YOUR DAILY GIF

From Brenna: "No one is immune to wind, not even duchesses or first ladies. You know who (it appears) was spared from a near HATastrophy? The Queen. Even the breeze knows you don't mess with the Queen's hat. Share The Point with a queen in your life!"

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