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Monday, November 18, 2019

The Point: Here comes ... Joe Biden?!?!?


November 18, 2019  | by Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski

Here comes ... Joe Biden?!?!?

It's popular -- particularly on Twitter! -- to blast former Vice President Joe Biden and declare his presidential hopes dead. And given his poor fundraising through the end of September and his, uh, middling debate performances, there are some real facts behind that perception.

But one of the under-told storylines of the 2020 campaign to date is that despite the defeatist conventional wisdom, the support for the former vice president has -- and continues -- to show surprising resilience. That's especially true of Biden's support among African Americans, a critical voting bloc in a Democratic presidential primary.

Two polls released Monday out of South Carolina tell that story. In a Quinnipiac University poll, Biden is at 33% with Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts a distant second at 13%. A University of North Florida poll showed much the same -- Biden at 36% with Warren and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont lagging well behind at 10% each.

Among black voters in the Quinnipiac poll, Biden took 44% to 10% for Sanders and just 8% for Warren. (South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg received less than 1% of the black vote in South Carolina in the new Q poll. Ouch.)

Of the UNF poll, Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab, said: "Buoyed by his support among African American voters, Biden has an established lead far above the other contenders in South Carolina."

Biden's lasting strength in South Carolina and with black voters is mirrored in his improving performance in national 2020 polling as well. Biden was in danger of losing his edge over Warren in national 2020 surveys as recently as a few weeks ago. Now? He averages more than 7 points over Warren, according to the polling database maintained by Real Clear Politics.

To be clear: Biden is still not where he wants to be in Iowa or New Hampshire. And his fundraising needs to get drastically better. But his continued strength in South Carolina -- and the persistence of support from black voters even amid online predictions of his imminent demise -- suggest that Biden may have more strengths than he is getting credit for at the moment.

The Point: Biden isn't the freshest face in the race. He's not the most liberal. He's not the most eloquent. But he may well have the deepest reservoir of support among the key bloc of voters who have decided the identity of the last two Democratic presidential nominees.

-- Chris

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"I like the idea & will, in order to get Congress focused again, strongly consider it!"

-- President Trump tweeted that he is apparently open to testifying in the impeachment investigation. 

A SPICY IMPEACHMENT SPEND

One of the largest spenders on impeachment-related advertisements on Facebook is an unexpected source: a spice company.

Wisconsin-based Penzeys Spices spent $726,000 on advertisements about impeachment (as well as a "Choose Love" spice box). Per CNN's David Wright, Penzeys trails only President Donald Trump and Tom Steyer in impeachment ad spending on Facebook.

New York Magazine has more on why this spice company is leaning into the pro-impeachment ad market.

LAUREN'S GOOD READS

What DOES Rudy Giuliani's son do?

Pete Buttigieg has an official campaign dance

On Jane Austen, Elizabeth Warren and the legacy of the stoic woman

Remembering Mark Sanford's long-shot, short-lived presidential bid

The language of cyber crime

South Dakota is on meth

Bison! Are! Amazing!

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

Thoroughly enjoying "Oh Mama" from Milky Chance's new album.

IMPEACHMENT LATEST

SE Cupp: Conservatism isn't dead … it's in a coma

In this weekend edition of The Point, Chris and SE Cupp, host of "SE Cupp Unfiltered," discuss how the ongoing impeachment inquiry will impact the Republican Party, and which senators could maybe vote in favor of removing President Trump from office.

Stay in the loop with The Point on YouTube

LAUREN'S CAMPAIGN TRAIL LATEST

Pete Buttigieg: Holds a commanding lead among Iowa's potential caucus-goers, according to a new CNN/Des Moines Register poll. 🎧Lauren has more in today's Point podcast episode)

Deval Patrick: Made his campaign trail debut this weekend and nobody booed. He's open to accepting super PAC cash to "catch up" to the rest of the field.

Joe Biden: Has been endorsed by Gold Star father Khizr Khan. Khan also plans to campaign for Biden. 

Michael Bloomberg: Has nabbed a key endorsement in South Carolina (even though he hasn't officially announced a presidential bid).

Tom Steyer: Says he met the polling threshold to qualify for the December debate. He still has not met the donor requirement.

ONE BIG WEEK

9

The number of witnesses who will testify publicly in the House impeachment proceedings this week.

Four of them will testify Tuesday, including Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, the National Security Council's top Ukraine expert, and Kurt Volker, the former US special envoy to Ukraine.
We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski. Follow Chris and Lauren on Twitter.
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