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Monday, December 16, 2019

The Point: House Democrats are betting their majority on impeachment


December 16, 2019  | by Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski

House Dems are betting their majority on impeachment

In case there was any doubt that Democrats believe impeaching President Donald Trump, which they will do later this week, is the right thing to do politically and philosophically, the events of Monday should erase them.

That's because Monday saw a slew of House Democrats sitting in districts Trump won in 2016 coming out in favor of impeachment -- from Michigan's Elissa Slotkin to Utah's Ben McAdams to South Carolina's Joe Cunningham to Virginia's Elaine Luria and Abigail Spanberger. In fact, at least 17 of the 31 Democrats who represent congressional seats where Trump won are now on record supporting the two articles of impeachment.

"If I wanted to do what was easy politically, I would just vote no and move on," Cunningham told the Post & Courier Monday. "But it's about doing what's right for our country."

That's in contrast to just two Democrats in Trump districts who are expected to oppose the articles -- Reps. Collin Peterson (Minnesota) and Jeff Van Drew (New Jersey). And those two could well be just one even before the vote happens later this week as Van Drew is widely expected to become a Republican over his disagreement with his current party on impeachment. (Van Drew's opposition to impeachment has also created a number of problems for him in a potential Democratic primary next year.)

What those numbers make clear is that Speaker Nancy Pelosi -- and the Democrats in those Trump districts -- have decided to bet their majority that impeaching Trump will either be a positive or a neutral in the minds of voters come next November.

If Republicans have any chance at picking up the 18 seats they need to retake the majority, it would come from these 31 Trump seats. (There are only three seats represented by a Republican where Hillary Clinton won in 2016.) That almost half of that group is already on record as for the two articles of impeachment more than 48 hours before an expected vote suggests that they aren't afraid that this impeachment vote will cost them their seats.

That's a stark contrast to the rhetoric from House Republicans over the past few weeks. Colorado Rep. Ken Buck, a member of the Judiciary Committee, urged his Democratic colleagues to "go ahead" and vote for the impeachment articles, adding: "Say goodbye to your majority status and please join us in January 2021 when President Trump is inaugurated again."

It's worth noting -- and Republicans do this a lot -- that the last time the House impeached a president (and the Senate declined to remove him), was just before the 1998 election, when then-Speaker Newt Gingrich's prediction that his party would net 40+ seats wound up costing him his job. (Democrats netted five seats.)

One big difference: That impeachment was happening just as voters were making up their minds. This one will happen almost a year before the election.

The Point: The rapid movement of endangered Democrats to come out in favor of impeachment on Monday is very much a risk -- albeit a calculated one.

-- Chris

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"Now women, I just want you to know; you are not perfect, but what I can say pretty indisputably is that you're better than us."

-- Former President Barack Obama told the BBC that women are '"indisputably" better at leading than men.

ABOUT THAT DEBATE THIS WEEK

Things are up in the air with the next Democratic primary debate at Loyola Marymount University, scheduled for Thursday in Los Angeles.

All seven Democrats set to appear on stage have threatened to boycott the debate because of a labor dispute -- vowing not to cross the picket line. Food service workers' union UNITE HERE Local 11 has not reached a collective bargaining agreement with Sodexo, a services company that employs the workers and is subcontracted by the university. 

The DNC said Monday it expects the dispute to be resolved "promptly."

This is the second time this December debate has run into labor-related organizational issues. The debate's first location had to be moved from UCLA because of a labor dispute between the college and a local union. 

CHRIS' GOOD READS

Ruby Cramer profiled the Bernie you don't know

Donald Trump's lying is picking up speed

The case for Trump to win in 2020

How big tech lost its way this past decade

Mariah finally made it to No. 1

An oral history of the Folgers' "incest" ad

All the species declared extinct this decade

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

This tribute album to Wilco's "Yankee Hotel Foxtrot" is filled with beautiful covers of one of my five favorite albums of all time.

IMPEACHMENT WATCHING

Here's why Trump's impeachment is not like Nixon's

In this impeachment edition of The Point, Chris talks with Tim Naftali, CNN presidential historian, about the similarities and differences, not just between the men, but also the moment.

Keep up to date with The Point on YouTube.

LAUREN'S CAMPAIGN TRAIL LATEST

Joe Biden: Secured the endorsement of Birmingham, Alabama, Mayor Randall Woodfin.

Andrew Yang: Released a health care plan that affirmed his support for "Medicare for All," but cautions that the elimination of private insurance "is not a realistic strategy."

Cory Booker: Sent a letter asking DNC Chair Tom Perez to change the party's debate qualifications for January and February (he didn't qualify for the December debate). All seven of those that did qualify for the December debate signed on.

Elizabeth Warren: Has New Years plans. She'll deliver a New Year's Eve address from the historic Old South Meeting House in Boston.

Bernie Sanders: Holds a rally in California on Monday night featuring a performance from Foo Fighters guitarist Chris Shiflett.

Michael Bloomberg and Deval Patrick: They're the two newest presidential candidates. But they're running remarkably different campaigns. 🎧 Lauren has more in the latest Point podcast.

ONE BIG HIGH WATER MARK

43%
 
President Donald Trump's job approval rating, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac University. This is Trump's highest job approval rating since he was elected. 
We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski. Follow Chris and Lauren on Twitter.
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