The Point: How Donald Trump wins

View this email in your browser   January 20, 2020  | by Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski How Donald Trump wins   Buried in the new CNN national poll is a single data point that may well be the key to how someone as unpopular as President Donald Trump can win a second term in November.   And it's this: 55% of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing on the economy, while 40% disapprove. That +15 gap is by far the best Trump performs on a series of questions on how he is handling various aspects of the country. In fact, it is one of only two measures where more Americans approve than disapprove of the job he is doing. (Trump has a +3 margin on his handling of terrorism.)   And his +15 on the economy far outstrips his overall job approval rating  -- 43% approve, 53% disapprove -- in the new CNN data. (Trump's worst showings are on health care and immigration, where he is -15 and -14, respectively).   It doesn't take a political savant to see the path for Trump to a second term: the economy, the economy, the economy. The history of modern presidential elections suggests that the economy is always at the center of how voters make up their minds -- and that when people feel as though things are going well (in their personal economics and in the country) they tend to want to stay the course. To that point: 55% of people in the CNN poll said things were going "very" or "pretty" well in the country, as compared with 43% who said they were going "pretty" or "very" badly. The Trump argument here is clear: You may not like me as a person. You may not like my policies on, well, lots of stuff. But you are doing well. The stock market is at all-time highs. Why then would we ever consider changing horses in midstream?   Will Trump do that? Probably not. He lacks the message discipline to stay on even one message for a few days a time. But if he does wind up snatching victory from the jaws of defeat again in November, it's that economic approval number that explains it.   The Point: It's the economy, stupid. Same as it ever was.   -- Chris QUOTE OF THE DAY "I have this firm belief that if America hasn't broken your heart, you don't love her enough." -- Sen. Cory Booker's response when asked who has broken his heart. TIMING ON IMPEACHMENT The Senate's impeachment trial begins in earnest on Tuesday. Here's how things will go down:   The trial will start Tuesday at 1 p.m. ET. It will run six days a week, Monday through Saturday, ending usually at 5 p.m. or 6 p.m. ET, according to the office of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. ONE-ON-ONE WITH ANDREW YANG Chris met up with presidential candidate Andrew Yang in New Hampshire for a quick game of P-O-T-U-S. Here's how it went down.   Ball out with The Point on YouTube. Subscribe!  LAUREN'S GOOD READS Plastic bags have lobbyists, too   Michael Bennet's "awkward, unusual" New Hampshire campaign   Got a dollar?   On Dixie Highway's future MUSICAL INTERLUDE New Bombay Bicycle Club!     Today's episode: Senators' final campaign sprint before impeachment. LAUREN'S CAMPAIGN TRAIL LATEST     Bernie Sanders: Attacked Joe Biden's record on Social Security over the weekend.   Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar: Got a joint endorsement from The New York Times editorial board, which added, "May the best woman win."   Michael Bloomberg: Has made a difference with his campaign's massive spending on ad buys in at least one way -- it's made advertising prices increase for other candidates.   Deval Patrick: Will outline his foreign policy platform in a speech at the Council on Foreign Relations.   ONE BIG DRAW Monday's Martin Luther King Jr. Day events in Columbia, South Carolina, drew most of the 2020 contenders, including Tulsi Gabbard, Joe Biden, Amy Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, Tom Steyer and Deval Patrick, who walked arm in arm during the march.  You are receiving this message because you subscribed to CNN's The Point with Chris Cillizza newsletter. Unsubscribe from this list Check out other CNN Newsletters Share the Point Newsletter Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get The Point in your inbox. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski. You can follow Chris and Lauren on Twitter and connect with The Point on: Our mailing address is: One CNN Center Atlanta, GA 30303 Copyright © 2020 Cable News Network, Inc., All rights reserved.