The Point: 8 senators to watch in the impeachment trial

View this email in your browser   January 16, 2020  | by Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski 8 senators to watch in the impeachment trial On Thursday, it became official: The Senate impeachment trial into President Donald Trump is underway.   While the ultimate outcome seems predetermined -- it's very hard to see 67 senators voting for Trump's removal -- that doesn't mean the way we get from here to there doesn't matter and won't be potentially politically consequential.   While 67 votes are necessary to remove Trump, the rules governing the proceedings -- including on the question of whether witnesses should be called -- are determined by a simple majority. Which means that any coalition of 51 senators can overrule the wishes of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and, by extension, Trump.   With that in mind, here's a look at eight senators to keep an eye on as the trial wears on. If there are going to be rebellions -- even small ones -- it's likely to come from someone in this group.   * Lamar Alexander (R-Tennessee): Alexander is retiring at the end of this year, a move that makes him more likely to act on his own gut instincts. And those instincts lean toward protecting both the institution of the Senate and the Republican Party. Neither of those goals perfectly align with Trump's own vision.   * Susan Collins (R-Maine): One of the last GOP moderates, Collins has voiced support for witnesses to be allowed to be called. But, remember this about Collins: She and McConnell have a very strong relationship. Think Brett Kavanaugh.   * Joni Ernst (R-Iowa): Ernst has kept a relatively low profile over her first term in office. That's a good strategy given that she represents a traditional swing state. But it may be harder for her to avoid some tough votes in the course of the trial, votes which Democrats, who believe Ernst is vulnerable this fall, will be watching closely.   * Cory Gardner (R-Colorado): Gardner is up for reelection in 2020 in a state that went for Hillary Clinton In 2016. And he's up against a top Democratic recruit in former Gov. John Hickenlooper. That's reason enough to expect him to look for ways to show his independence and moderation in the course of the trial.   * Doug Jones (D-Alabama): If there's one Democrat who might side with Republicans on any of the major upcoming votes in the trial, it's Jones. After winning a special election in 2017, he has to run for reelection this fall in a state that is heavily Republican. Even if Jones votes, say, to acquit the President, he could still lose. So, does he throw political calculation out the window? Or not?   * Martha McSally (R-Arizona): McSally's rude response to a simple question from CNN's Manu Raju on Thursday suggests the pressure she is under in this trial. McSally is up for reelection this November and is behind her Democratic challenger in polls and fundraising. Plus, Republicans are worried about how Trump will perform in Arizona.   * Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska): Murkowski may actually be the moderate that Collins presents herself as. Not only did Murkowski vote against Kavanaugh but she also got herself reelected as a write-in candidate in 2010 following a loss to a Tea Party candidate in the primary. If there's a true independent in the Senate, Murkowski's it.   * Mitt Romney (R-Utah): Romney, since coming to the Senate last year, has been -- by far -- the Republican senator most willing to question Trump and his decisions. Romney has also express support for hearing from witnesses -- and, unlike many of his colleagues, doesn't need to worry about how it impacts his home politics since he isn't up for another term until 2024.   The Point: This trial -- and the votes governing its rules -- will be one of the major moments of every single one of these senators' careers.  Handle the politics of it wrong and it could spell the end of those careers.   -- Chris QUOTE OF THE DAY "I don't want to get in the middle. I just want to say hi, Bernie" -- Tom Steyer, who got caught between Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders' exchange at the end of Tuesday's debate.  HERE'S EXACTLY WHY A WOMAN CAN BE ELECTED PRESIDENT Chris explains the longstanding debate over female electability.   Stay in the loop with The Point on YouTube. Subscribe now!  WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH IMPEACHMENT The impeachment ball is officially in the Senate's court.   The seven House impeachment managers who will prosecute the case against President Donald Trump marched the articles from the House to the Senate on Thursday, beginning the ceremonial functions of the impeachment trial in which senators will decide whether Trump should be removed from office.   Meanwhile, a government watchdog concluded Trump administration broke the law by withholding Ukraine aid.   The next real action happens on Tuesday. Then, the Senate is expected to vote on a resolution setting the rules of the trial, and then arguments will get underway. 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Joe Biden: Says he's also open to considering Beto O'Rourke or Julián Castro as VP picks.   ONE BIG CAMPAIGN 200 The number of state and federal elections the conservative political network affiliated with billionaire Charles Koch plans to get involved in this year -- its biggest effort yet. Officials did not disclose how much they plan to spend. You are receiving this message because you subscribed to CNN's The Point with Chris Cillizza newsletter. Unsubscribe from this list Check out other CNN Newsletters Share the Point Newsletter Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get The Point in your inbox. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski. You can follow Chris and Lauren on Twitter and connect with The Point on: Our mailing address is: One CNN Center Atlanta, GA 30303 Copyright © 2020 Cable News Network, Inc., All rights reserved.