| | | | It's Not the Economy, Stupid | | The relative shunning of Germany's two largest mainstream parties in Sunday's election – and the remarkable gains made by the openly right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) – marks an extraordinary shift in the country's post-World War II politics, Der Spiegel notes. The reason for the voter disaffection? It wasn't the economy, stupid.
"There are many voters -- especially those outside the traditional [Christian Democratic Union] party base, who considered Merkel's decision not to close the border to be a major humanitarian gesture. But her refugee policies nevertheless polarized people like few other previous political decisions. Now that anger is sweeping into the Bundestag in the form of the AfD. Viewed in that light, the party is Merkel's creature." - Fareed agrees the rise of populist parties in Germany and elsewhere is often less about economics than it is about social anxieties. "Germany's economy has, on the whole, been doing well. Inequality hasn't really been rising. Instead, the common theme that you're seeing that is fueling the rise of these parties across the Western world is immigration," Fareed says.
"So I think the key challenge for centrist parties is going to be to recognize that this is a serious issue for many voters. Look at the United States, for example. In 1970, foreign-born immigrants to the United States made up about 4.5 percent of the population. Today it's about 13.5 percent. This is a dramatic shift, and so political parties on the center right and center left need to be willing to have a discussion about this that doesn't start with the assumption that concern about immigration automatically implies racism.
"Obviously, we want to be open. Obviously, we want to be generous and welcoming. But it's also reasonable to talk about what limits there should be. It's reasonable to talk about a greater degree of assimilation. If centrist parties can do that, I think they will take the main oxygen out of these far right and populist parties.
"In America, President Trump has been very good at figuring out a way to capitalize on the resentment that an older, whiter population feels about a changing country. But it is all symbolic stuff. My question to Trump supporters would simply be: How is this going to bring back any jobs? Is this going to bring back manufacturing? Is this going to change income inequality?
"Trump has actually raised some legitimate issues about trade with China, about the loss of manufacturing jobs, about apprenticeship programs. Where has all that gone? Why are we instead spending our time worrying about who's peacefully protesting in America?"
| | The End of Puerto Rico's American Dream? | | The devastation caused by Hurricane Maria has left Puerto Rico -- and 3.4 million Americans -- with dire long-term prospects, writes Tyler Cowen for Bloomberg View. The dream that poorer areas of the United States -- and poorer parts of the world -- would inevitably "catch up" with the wealthier ones "has been laid to rest once and for all."
"One of the wisest features of American policy after the Revolution was the emphasis on rapid statehood, rather than territory status. When regions moved from territories to full-blown states, it provided a big boost to their per capita incomes," Cowen says. "Puerto Rico never did the same, in part because its citizens voted not to, and in part because the mainland was reluctant to absorb a Hispanic territory. These days, political polarization renders statehood hard to imagine, as Puerto Rican senators likely would be Democrats."
"Increasingly, it seems that many parts of the Western world might never 'catch up,' including Greece, southern Italy, much of the Balkans and much of Latin America, in addition to Puerto Rico. One of the pleasing features of the 1990s, in retrospect a delusion, was the notion that proper policy and good multilateral institutions would bring most of the world into consistent, steady-state growth at a higher rate than what the wealthier countries could manage."
| | No, North Korea Won't Shoot Down a U.S. Plane | | | North Korea's vow that it is willing to shoot down U.S. bombers rings hollow, argues Paul McLeary for Foreign Policy. The reality is that it is unlikely to be able to hit one even if it tries.
"Pyongyang is suspected of having thousands of Soviet-era surface-to-air missiles that could actually reach U.S. planes flying outside of North Korean airspace," McLeary writes. "But those are old systems that U.S. and allied aircraft like the B-1 and B-2 bombers are designed to track and either jam electronically, or avoid."
"The newest technology is the indigenously produced KN-06 surface-to-air missile, which Kim touted earlier this year when it went operational after a series of successful tests. The road-mobile missile has a likely range of less than 100 miles, experts estimate, and is based on the Russian S-300 and Chinese HQ-9/FT-2000 systems. The newer air defense systems probably wouldn't pose a risk to U.S. flights off the coast, experts said." | | Why the World Could Start to Run Out of Food | | The world is far too dependent on just a relative handful of plants and animals for its food supply. Certain kinds of wildlife might get the headlines, but the ongoing sixth mass extinction of wildlife is also threatening the world's food supplies, argues Damian Carrington in The Guardian.
"Three-quarters of the world's food today comes from just 12 crops and five animal species and this leaves supplies very vulnerable to disease and pests that can sweep through large areas of monocultures, as happened in the Irish potato famine when a million people starved to death," Carrington writes, following the release of a report by the Bioversity International research group. "Reliance on only a few strains also means the world's fast changing climate will cut yields just as the demand from a growing global population is rising."
"There are tens of thousands of wild or rarely cultivated species that could provide a richly varied range of nutritious foods, resistant to disease and tolerant of the changing environment. But the destruction of wild areas, pollution and overhunting has started a mass extinction of species on Earth. The focus to date has been on wild animals – half of which have been lost in the last 40 years – but the new report reveals that the same pressures are endangering humanity's food supply, with at least 1,000 cultivated species already endangered."
| | How Team Trump Should Respond to the Kurds' Vote | | Iraqi Kurds look to have voted for independence in their referendum Monday. The United States might have objected to the vote taking place, but now is not the time for punitive measures or to sit back and watch what happens next, argues Zalmay Khalilzad in the Washington Post. "Instead, we should choose a proactive damage control strategy that protects our interests and allows us to shape the next steps."
"We have a long history of productive relations with the Kurds. They play a vital role in the continuing fight against the Islamic State. We enjoy a valuable intelligence relationship with them and benefit from access to military facilities in their region. In addition, they are religiously tolerant, which is rare in the region, and have been welcoming of refugees and internally displaced persons," Khalilzad argues.
"For all these reasons, a break with them does not serve our interest regardless of how annoyed we might be with them for the moment. And, unlike in some other parts of the Middle East, the United States is loved and admired here. We should not put all of this at risk because we disagreed on the referendum." | | | | | | |
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