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Monday, March 26, 2018

The Point: Trump's approval rating is *this* close to Obama and Reagan's

March 26, 2018  by Z. Byron Wolf and Saba Hamedy

Trump's approval is *this* close to Obama and Reagan's

Trump's on the rebound! Sort of? Maybe!

What's going on? The big headline from a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, as written by CNN's Director of Polling and Election Analytics Jenn Agiesta, is that the President's approval rating "has rebounded to its highest level since the 100-day mark of his presidency." 

A bit later in the story, she adds this: "Trump's approval rating remains below that of all of his modern-era predecessors at this stage in their first term after being elected, though Trump only trails Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama by a narrow 4 points at this point in their first terms." So, he's historically low, but on the upswing, maybe, and nipping at the heels of the low marks of some other Presidents who went on to re-election.

There are a couple of things to remember here, as Agiesta ably points out, including that Trump's approval rating has seesawed for months, between about 35% and a little over 40%. From that perspective, today's poll is largely in line with where his approval has been.

He's under 40% approval on several important issues, including how he's handled foreign policy and gun policy. But he's at 48% approval on the economy, which is the best number for him in the poll.

So, is he nipping at the heels of Reagan and Obama in terms of approval?

Both of them were dealing with very, very bad economies at the outset of their presidencies, whereas Trump has overseen a historic bull run on Wall Street and an unemployment rate under 5% -- literally full employment.

The unemployment rate for Obama in March of 2010 was 9.7%. For Reagan, in March of 1982, it was 9%. Another historical note is that before they went on to re-election, Obama and Reagan suffered huge losses in midterm elections. Obama's Democrats lost 63 seats and control of the House. Reagan only lost 26 seats. But if Trump's Republicans lose 26 seats, it'll be Nancy Pelosi or another Democrat wielding the gavel come January.

On the other hand, neither Obama nor Reagan had the kind of personal drama currently embroiling Trump. CNN's poll shows two-thirds of Americans believe the women who say they've had affairs with him, not White House denials. 

The Point: This is all in the way of saying that a seven-point approval swing may be welcome news in the White House, but there's a lot of context that suggests things aren't going to be getting any easier for the President anytime soon. 

-- Z. Byron Wolf

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"If I could do that effectively, then I would create a hundred, or a thousand, or a million young Barack Obamas or Michelle Obamas."

-- Former President Barack Obama on how he hopes the Obama Foundation, a nonprofit formed in January 2014, will help achieve his post-presidential aims

'I DON'T CARE ABOUT DIVERSITY'

CNN's Sara Ganim reports: 

"Several employees at the Interior Department have told CNN that Secretary Ryan Zinke repeatedly says that he won't focus on diversity, an apparent talking point that has upset many people within the agency.

"Three high-ranking Interior officials from three different divisions said that Zinke has made several comments with a similar theme, saying 'diversity isn't important,' or 'I don't care about diversity,' or 'I don't really think that's important anymore.'"

Read more here.

SABA'S GOOD READS

Elon Musk's DC-Baltimore hyperloop route, mapped, by DC Curbed

The New York Times on "The Politics of Waxing" -- because "controversy about identity and politics visits Tussauds regularly."

A Brief History of YouTube Censorship, via VICE's Motherboard 

NPR reports: Birth Control Apps Find A Big Market In "Contraception Deserts"

CNN's Cassie Spodak, McKenna Ewan and Jeremy Moorhead shot video at the March for Our Lives. Check it out here.

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

Diana Ross turns 74 today! Here's her performing a retrospective medley of her songs at the American Music Awards in November 2017, where she received the lifetime achievement honor.

'BIG ANNOUNCEMENT' 

CNN's Eric Bradner writes: "Florida Gov. Rick Scott is teasing a "big announcement" on April 9, fueling long-running speculation that he will launch a Senate bid to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson in November.

Scott has long been courted by national Republicans to run against Nelson, and President Donald Trump himself said last year he hopes Scott runs for the Senate."

Read more here.

THE STORM(Y) CONTINUES

Adult film star Stormy Daniels sat down for an interview with CNN's Anderson Cooper for CBS' "60 Minutes." It aired Sunday -- and there was a LOT to unpack. 

The biggest news? CNN's Maegan Vazquez writes: "Daniels said seven years ago she was threatened by a man when she was trying to sell her story about her alleged affair with Donald Trump. ... She was approached in a Las Vegas parking lot while she was with her daughter in 2011." CNN's Sara Sidner and Jason Kravarik highlighted that as a key new detail revealed in the interview. Read their story here

On Monday, Michael Avenatti, Daniels' lawyer, said on "New Day" that new evidence will likely be brought forward "over the next few weeks and months" that will help prove Trump was aware of a $130,000 hush agreement drawn up by Trump's personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, and executed just before the 2016 election. Daniels filed a lawsuit for defamation on Monday against Cohen.

White House deputy press secretary Raj Shah said Monday: "The President strongly, clearly and consistently has denied these underlying claims. The only one who has been inconsistent is the one making the claims."

#2020 WATCH

In this week's #2020 Vision memo, CNN's Eric BradnerGregory Krieg and Caroline Kenny wrote about former Vice President Joe Biden's interview with the Pod Save America guys.

"On an episode of 'Pod Save America' set to be released this week, former Vice President Joe Biden tells the hosts he regrets saying he'd want to engage President Donald Trump in a schoolyard fight.

"I shouldn't have brought it up again because I don't want to get down in the mosh pit with this guy," Biden said in the interview, recorded Friday.

However, The Hill's Amie Parnes writes that Biden insiders are happy with the former Vice President's feud with Trump -- which escalated when Trump tweeted that Biden "would go down fast and hard, crying all the way." The Bidenworld view: It shows Trump is scared of a Biden challenge, and elevates Biden as a potential foe." Read more here.

Also on the #2020 radar: Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren. The Democrat is heading to Asia this week to meet with officials from China, South Korea and Japan. She wrote about her goals for diplomacy in an op-ed for the Boston Globe, published Sunday.

INSTAPOINT

Click on CNN Politics' Instagram story every Monday through Friday afternoon for more #content from Chris and Brenna Williams. This week it's all Brenna, since Chris is on vacation.

STEVE KING CRITICIZES PARKLAND TEEN

CNN's Maegan Vazquez reported Monday: "Iowa Republican Rep. Steve King is facing heat after someone managing his campaign's Facebook page posted a meme on Sunday criticizing a Parkland student for donning a patch of the Cuban flag.

"This is how you look when you claim Cuban heritage yet don't speak Spanish and ignore the fact that your ancestors fled the island when the dictatorship turned Cuba into a prison camp, after removing all weapons from its citizens; hence their right to self defense," the meme said alongside an image of Cuban-American Emma Gonzalez, a survivor of the Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School shooting in Parkland, Florida, speaking at the March for Our Lives rally in Washington on Saturday.

"In the comments section, someone managing King's Facebook page sparred with Brandon Wolf, one of the survivors of the Pulse nightclub shooting in Orlando, Florida." Read more about this here.

The post comes after the Parkland, Florida, students -- who survived a shooting that killed 17 of their friends and teachers -- organized nationwide "March for Our Lives" demonstrations against gun violence. 

YOUR DAILY GIF

H/T Brenna
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