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Monday, April 30, 2018

The Point: The Republican majority is in deep trouble

April 30, 2018  by Chris Cillizza and Brenna Williams

The Republican majority is in deep trouble

On Monday, CNN's key House race tracker ranked a dozen seats currently held by Republicans as being in more electoral danger, the latest in a series of developments that suggest the majority party is increasingly less likely to hold that majority come November.

The changes mean that Republicans now have 78 seats in some form of political peril as compared to just 40 for Democrats. If Republicans lost only the seats they hold that CNN currently rates as toss-ups or leaning toward Democrats, they would lose 28 seats -- five more than Democrats need to retake the majority.

Yes, the election isn't tomorrow. In fact, November 6, 2018 is still 190 days away.

But the trend line has to concern Republican strategists charged with holding onto the House majority. With each passing week, more GOP-held seats come online as competitive -- widening Democrats' margin for error and stretching the Republican cash devoted to keeping the majority that much thinner. 

Of the 12 seats CNN moved on Monday, Trump won all of the districts; he carried three by single digits and nine by double digits -- including two that he won by more than 20.

Everyone knew that 2018 would be a tough year for Republicans, given historic trends against the party who holds the White House. Trump's inability to move his job approval numbers much above 40% compounds those problems as does the fact that he has been, to date, the best turnout driver Democrats could possibly hope for.

The Point: If districts that Trump won in 2016 by 10 to 15 points are competitive this fall, the GOP House majority is as good as gone. The only important question will be how many seats Democrats can pick up. 

-- Chris

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"You're damn right, I'm a champion of compromise."

-- Sen. John McCain, in his new book

MISS-TREE SOLVED

Remember that tree President Donald Trump and French Emmanuel President Macron planted last week? It went missing! Good news: Turns out the tree is OAK-ay. It just had to leaf the White House for a bit to be quarantined. 

"Late Sunday, the French ambassador to the United States, Gerard Araud, said the tree's 'disappearance' was only temporary. 'It is in quarantine, which is mandatory for any living organism imported to the US. It will be replanted afterwards,' Araud tweeted."

"Stephanie Grisham, spokeswoman for first lady Melania Trump, who coordinated the ceremonial aspects of the Macron visit, told CNN Monday the plan was always to quarantine the tree."

Read more from CNN's Saskya Vandoorne and Judith Vonberg here.

CHRIS' GOOD READS

Excerpts from John McCain's new book are out. And he's right.

WaPo's Erik Wemple on the smallness of the White House Correspondents Dinner debate

Michelle Wolf did what she was hired to do, according to James Poniewozik

The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor on what he learned from the 1st round of the NBA playoffs.

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

I know Shakey Graves from his brief stint as "The Swede" on "Friday Night Lights." His new album shows he makes pretty good music too.

INSTA POINT

SORRY, NOT SORRY

President Trump has #NoRegrets about one of his most controversial campaign proposals. CNN's Jeremy Diamond explains that Trump is still answering for his Muslim ban comments in 2016.

"'There's no reason to apologize,' Trump said during a joint news conference alongside the President of Nigeria when asked if he would apologize for his call during the 2016 presidential campaign for a 'total and complete shutdown' of Muslims entering the United States. 'There's nothing to apologize for,' he said. 'We have to have strong immigration laws to protect our country.'

Trump's refusal to apologize for or rescind his calls during the 2016 campaign for banning all Muslims from entering the United States has been repeatedly cited during court cases concerning the travel ban he put in place last year. Trump said he did not believe an apology would change the course of the legal case.

Instead, Trump continued to slam current US immigration laws during the news conference Monday."

'JUST ASKING' (FOR A FRIEND?)

CNN's Maegan Vazquez and Kevin Liptak report on a super casual question President Trump posed on Twitter this morning: 

"Trump on Monday suggested he'd like to hold his potential meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un near the border of North and South Korea, his first public suggestion of a venue amid the hotly watched deliberations over where to hold the historic summit.

"'Numerous countries are being considered for the MEETING, but would Peace House/Freedom House, on the Border of North & South Korea, be a more Representative, Important and Lasting site than a third party country? Just asking!' Trump tweeted.

"US officials previously said the Peace House along the fortified border between North and South Korea was an unlikely option, since it may appear to concede too much to Kim. Trump would need to travel halfway around the globe to meet there; Kim would need only to travel a few dozen miles."

Read the full story here

STORMY SUES TRUMP

This news struck like lightning: Adult film star Stormy Daniels is suing President Trump for defamation.

Earlier this month, Daniels released a composite sketch of a man who she says threatened her regarding her alleged affair with Trump. The President called it "a total con job."

"It was apparent that Mr. Trump meant to convey that Ms. Clifford is a liar, someone who should not be trusted, that her claims about the threatening encounter are false, and that she was falsely accusing the individual depicted in the sketch of committing a crime, where no crime had been committed. ... Mr. Trump made his statement either knowing it was false, had serious doubts about the truth of his statement, or made the statement with reckless disregard for its truth or falsity," Daniels' lawyer, Michael Avenatti, said.

🌩️ CNN's Maeve Reston, Javier de Diego and MJ Lee are your resident meteorologists on the rest of this story. ðŸŒ©️

YOUR DAILY GIF

H/T Brenna
From Brenna: "As they asked in the cinematic classic '10 Things I Hate About You:' 'You can be overwhelmed, and you can be underwhelmed, but can you ever just be whelmed?' Well, we have our answer here: Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari in the Oval Office looking 'whelmed' after a handshake with President Trump." 

Thanks for reading. And as always, please tell people you know to subscribe to The Point

We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Our authors for The Point are Chris Cillizza and Saba Hamedy. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris or Saba. Follow on Twitter: Chris and Saba.
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