| | | | Donald Trump is going to be a big winner tonight | | For all of Donald Trump's struggles in his first 19 months as President, there's one thing he's proven particularly adept at: Picking winners in contested GOP primaries.
That run of winners is likely to continue on Tuesday night when voters go to the polls in Arizona and Florida.
The most obvious example of Trump's power within the party is in the Florida governor's race, where, late last year, he tweeted favorably about the candidacy of Rep. Ron DeSantis, who was seen as a heavy underdog to state Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam in the primary.
"Congressman Ron DeSantis is a brilliant young leader, Yale and then Harvard Law, who would make a GREAT Governor of Florida," Trump tweeted just days before Christmas. "He loves our Country and is a true FIGHTER!"
Then, earlier this summer, Trump formally endorsed DeSantis and held a rally for him in the state. Putnam, who had spent years raising millions and putting the organizational infrastructure in place to be the GOP nominee, found himself on the outside looking in. And polls began to reflect that DeSantis, not Putnam, was now the favorite. (The last four polls conducted in the race have shown DeSantis with leads ranging from 1 to 12 points.)
If DeSantis wins, it is a victory that simply would not have been possible without Trump. (Doubt it? Check out this ad DeSantis ran about his support for the President.)
In Arizona's Senate primary, Republican strategists have long worried that Rep. Martha McSally, a moderate who polling suggests is the party's best chance to hold the seat, would lose if Trump came out and endorsed either one of her more Trumpian opponents: Former state legislator Kelli Ward, or pardoned Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio.
Those same strategists were beyond thrilled when, at a ceremony signing the defense authorization bill in New York, Trump said this of McSally: "I've gotten to know her very well, and she is terrific."
That quasi-endorsement may well have sealed McSally's victory. The latest poll in the race showed McSally leading her two primary opponents by 20 points.
The Point: Trump says lot of things that stretch the truth. But one thing he's absolutely right about is his popularity among Republican voters. Victories by DeSantis and McSally will simply (re)prove that reality.
-- Chris | | "When I worked here as a staff member, this was called the Old Senate Office Building, or affectionately we referred to it as the old S.O.B. And I can't imagine a better place to put John McCain's name."
-- Independent Sen. Angus King of Vermont when asked by CNN's Alisyn Camerota on "New Day" about Sen. Chuck Schumer proposing the Russell Senate Office Building be renamed after the late Sen. John McCain. | | | Today is primary day in Arizona, Florida and Oklahoma, but all eyes will be on Arizona this evening as the votes pour in in the marquee race: the GOP Senate primary between Martha McSally, Kelli Ward and Joe Arpaio. This race to replace Sen. Jeff Flake is being framed now by the death of another Arizona senator, John McCain, this past weekend.
On the day before McCain's funeral arrangements are set to begin, the three Republicans vying for the open Senate seat are keeping their distance from the esteemed senator and war hero, and trying to align themselves closer to President Trump.
McSally, who is seen as the establishment favorite, distanced herself from McCain during the campaign, while Ward and Arpaio, both falling more on the conservative side, openly attacked him. All three candidates are embracing Trump, in a sign of the President's power over Republican voters that has become the storyline during primaries this summer. Here are some examples of the candidates moving toward Trump and away from McCain in recent weeks: - McSally did not mention McCain's name when touting her support for the National Defense Authorization Act, which was named in McCain's honor, when McSally joined Trump at a signing ceremony at Fort Drum in New York earlier this month -- angering McCain's daughter Meghan McCain.
- This past weekend, Ward suggested that the McCain family statement on Friday, which said the senator was ending medical treatment for brain cancer, was timed to hurt her chances of winning the primary.
- Arpaio, who was pardoned by Trump, complained in a since-deleted tweet on Friday that Cindy McCain had blocked him on Twitter. "I tweeted out my thoughts & prayers for" McCain, his campaign account tweeted, and Cindy "BLOCKS me on twitter?"
Trump and McCain never truly saw eye-to-eye. The President infamously attacked McCain's service during the 2016 presidential campaign, and McCain was vocal in his opposition to Trump on several issues throughout his tenure. Read more about this race and others to watch tonight from CNN's Eric Bradner. | | | There's a new DeVotchKa record. Chris loves him some DeVotchKa. | | Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan has two paths ahead of him: running against Nancy Pelosi for House speaker or running against Donald Trump for President.
CNN's Dan Merica spent some time with Ryan this month in Iowa, a key state anyone aspiring to run for president must become familiar with, and tried to get to the bottom of which direction Ryan is heading.
Ryan unsuccessfully challenged Pelosi for her position as minority leader in 2016, but fell short after he won only a third of the vote. But it signaled that there was a desire for change among House Democrats. After Rep. Joe Crowley's primary loss earlier this summer, Ryan announced he was considering mounting another challenge this year.
Caroline has been following Ryan for a while, and he's making a lot of moves that prospective presidential candidates often make leading up to the campaign cycle. He's spoken at a number of key Democratic Party dinners in early primary states including Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina -- which got him in front of huge swaths of important voters. He's also been working on issues to appeal to the more left-leaning side of the party, like marijuana legalization and debt-free college. | | THE ISSUE WITH GERRYMANDERING | | | A panel of federal judges in North Carolina ruled on Monday that the Tarheel State's congressional map is an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander that favors Republicans. They went on to say that it may require districts to be redrawn before the November elections -- which are currently a little over two months away.
Republicans hold 10 of the state's 13 seats in the House, and a redrawn map could put more seats in play for Democrats -- potentially affecting which party has control of the House next year. All of these seats will be on the ballot this November. North Carolina has been seen as more of a purple state as of late, with a Democratic governor in Roy Cooper and competitive presidential races in recent cycles.
The same decision was reached by the court in January, but the Supreme Court declined in June to hear the case and it was sent back for reconsideration. The Supreme Court has never ruled a partisan gerrymander to be unconstitutional, and it passed up three separate opportunities to do so in the last term.
CNN's Joan Biskupic explains how this decision represents a victory for challengers to partisan gerrymanders. | | Former Democratic President Jimmy Carter made the cable rounds today to discuss the death of Sen. John McCain and President Trump's response.
"I thought that President Trump made a mistake at first" by issuing a tweet that made no mention of McCain's service, the former President told Fox Business Network's Neil Cavuto.
But Carter did think that Trump's statement released Monday, which honored McCain's service and lowered the flag to half-staff until the late senator's interment, was the right thing to do. "I think his last statement that I read yesterday has basically corrected that," Carter said on Fox Business. In a separate interview Tuesday on MSNBC with Andrea Mitchell, Carter went on to say that the statement the White House released was "still not as enthusiastic as it should be."
Carter appeared live on TV from Mishawaka, Indiana, where he and his wife Rosalynn are working on a site with Habitat for Humanity, an organization he's been heavily involved with during his post-presidency years. | | | From Brenna: "UN Ambassador Nikki Haley took time to admire her award from the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, as we all would. I'm entirely unclear on when clear glass became the material du jour for prizes, but I personally miss gold and marble monstrosities of my everybody-gets-a-trophy childhood." | | | | | | |
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