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Wednesday, January 30, 2019

The Point: 1 number that proves the shutdown was a GOP disaster


January 30, 2019  | by Chris Cillizza and Sophie Tatum

1 number that proves the shutdown was a GOP disaster

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell never wanted a government shutdown over funding (or lack thereof) for President Donald Trump's border wall. Shutdowns, McConnell argued, rarely work out politically for the party in power. "There is no education in the second kick of a mule," he was fond of telling anyone who asked.

Boy, was Mitch right. 

In the wake of the 35-day government shutdown, a new Gallup Poll shows favorability for the Republican Party dipping to just 37% -- down from 45% when Gallup last polled the question in September 2018. (The Democratic favorable number was largely unchanged: 44% in September, 45% now.)

The poll was in the field from January 21-27. While the shutdown ended on January 25, Gallup said that 70% of its interviews for the poll were already done by the time the deal was reached.

The same poll showed that 50% believed Democrats in Congress acted "more responsibly" in the shutdown negotiations, while just 39% said Trump acted as the more responsible party.

You don't have to be a polling genius to understand what's going on here. The shutdown -- the longest in American history -- tarnished an already banged and battered Republican brand. No ifs, ands or buts about it.

The Point: Given the damage they've already sustained, the prospect of another government shutdown in 16 days has to terrify every single Republican looking toward 2020. And what's even more terrifying? No one -- not even Donald Trump himself -- knows what he will do when faced with another shutdown showdown.

-- Chris

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"Happy Birthday, Dad!"

-- Chris, to his dad, who turns 72 today!

SHUTDOWN BAN

Could Congress ban shutdowns? CNN's Clare Foran and Ashley Killough report on the legislative branch's new effort aimed at preventing shutdowns. 

"It's not yet clear if lawmakers can come to an agreement to avert a shutdown in a few weeks, but there is bipartisan agreement in Congress that government shutdowns shouldn't just keep happening," they write. 

Here's a sample of some of the proposals from Foran and Killough: 
  • Republican Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio has a bill called the "End Government Shutdowns Act" 
  • Democratic Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia has introduced legislation called the "Stop STUPIDITY Act" -- an acronym that stands for Shutdowns Transferring Unnecessary Pain and Inflicting Damage In The Coming Years.
  • A group of House freshmen Democrats -- led by Reps. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, Chrissy Houlahan of Pennsylvania, Dean Phillips of Minnesota and Colin Allred of Texas -- unveiled a bill Tuesday called the Shutdown to End All Shutdowns Act.
Get caught up on more of Congress' efforts to prevent shutdowns here.

CHRIS' GOOD READS

One man's quest to translate every Trump tweet into Chinese. Great read by Anna Fifield.

AOC's conservative fans. Yes, really.

Jeff Greenfield isn't a big Howard Schultz guy

Tom Edsall's breakdown of how economic prosperity dictates vote patterns is totally fascinating

The real Lorena Bobbitt story, as told by Amy Chozick

A Peter Jackson-directed Beatles documentary? One, please!

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

Jason Isbell live at the Ryman Auditorium. Need I say more?

INSTA POINT

Today's topic: Trump has never really believed what his intel chiefs say.

TRUMP VS. HIS INTELLIGENCE TEAM


President Trump took to Twitter this morning to slam his own spy chiefs, saying his top intel officials "seem to be extremely passive and naive when it comes to the dangers of Iran." 

CNN's Eli Watkins points out that the tweet comes a day after the officials contradicted several claims made by the Trump administration regarding foreign policy. 

Watkins writes: "In a series of tweets, Trump also touted 'tremendous progress' against ISIS, a recently announced framework for talks with the Taliban to end the war in Afghanistan and his attempt at a rapprochement with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Notably, Trump said Wednesday there was a 'decent chance of denuclearization' on the Korean Peninsula, a step back from his previous demands that the longtime US foe end its nuclear program."

Here's more on the story, and you can read Chris' analysis about how Donald Trump has never really believed what his intelligence community tells him, here

THE 2020 HEALTH BATTLE IS ON

Sen. Kamala Harris' answer that she supports the Medicare-for-all bill at CNN's Monday town hall has sent ripples through the rest of the potential 2020 field.

Here's what other possible contenders said about it:

Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz: "That's not correct. That's not American."

Former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg: "I think you could have Medicare-for-all for people who are uncovered, but that's a smaller group. But to replace the entire private system where companies provide health care for their employees would bankrupt us for a very long time."

A Harris adviser signaled Tuesday that the Democratic 2020 candidate would also be open to the more moderate health reform plans, which would preserve the industry, being floated by other congressional Democrats. But Harris aides sought to push back on the idea that she was in any way, shape or form backing away from her initial support of getting rid of the private insurance industry in favor of a government-run system.

But if you take a step back, Chris writes, what's readily apparent is how big (and contentious) a factor health care -- and, specifically, single-payer -- will be in the 2020 Democratic primary fight. Read more.

#2020 WATCH

Rep. Eric Swalwell told CNN on Wednesday that he's "close to making a decision" on a presidential bid -- the latest Democrat to weigh a possible run in the upcoming 2020 race.
 
CNN's Annie Grayer reports that Swalwell said, "I'll be in New Hampshire tomorrow, so I'm excited for that," as he walked off the House floor on Wednesday.

YOUR DAILY GIF

From Brenna: "Let's all strive to be as excited about anything as DHS Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen is about partnering with the Atlanta PD for Super Bowl security. Share The Point with the person who won your fantasy league!"
We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski. Follow Chris and Lauren on Twitter.
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