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Thursday, January 24, 2019

The Point: Is the shutdown (almost) over?


January 24, 2019  | by Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski

Is the shutdown (almost) over?

Sometimes out of failure comes success. Or at least progress.

That may be what happened on the floor of the Senate on Thursday afternoon when both a Republican bill and a Democratic one designed to reopen the government failed to garner the 60 votes they needed to move forward to a final vote.

Both failures were not equal, however. Only one Democrat -- West Virginia's Joe Manchin -- voted for the Republican bill. Six Republicans voted for the Democratic bill, which would simply reopen the government to create a short period in which to negotiate on border funding.

The willingness of that half-dozen Republicans to publicly break with Trump -- even though it was abundantly clear their votes wouldn't help the Democratic proposal pass -- could well be the moment that breaks this logjam that has kept the government partially closed for the last 34 days.

Shortly after the votes happened, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer huddled in an attempt to forge a way forward. And Trump himself seemed open to the idea of a compromise.

"Mitch is negotiating with Chuck Schumer and we'll see what happens," said the President. "If they come to a reasonable agreement I would support it."

"Reasonable" is, of course, in the eye of the beholder. The White House is signaling it needs a "large down payment" on the border wall for Trump to sign off on a deal to reopen the government. Democrats have, to date, been adamant that tying wall funding to the government reopening is a non-starter. (Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the idea of a "down payment" for the wall was "not a reasonable agreement.")

So this could all blow up before the night is over. (If that happens, it's likely to come from Trump's Twitter feed.) But the two sides are talking. And the President -- always the "X" factor in any compromise in Washington -- appears to be willing to see what those talks produce.

One thing that might throw cold water on this optimism: CNN's exclusive reporting that the White House is preparing a draft proclamation to declare a national emergency along the southern border, and has identified more than $7 billion for the wall if he goes that route. 

The Point: The shutdown isn't over yet. But we are closer to an end tonight than we have been at any point since the shutdown began on December 22.

-- Chris

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"One of the people I blame is myself. ... Because the economy is so strong right now."

-- President Donald Trump, referring to reasons why people are trying to illegally immigrate to the United States. 

SHUTDOWN VOTE COUNT

The Senate voted this afternoon on two proposals that would each reopen the government. To no one's surprise (even though some senators crossed the aisle and voted for the other party's backed bill), both failed. Each needed 60 votes to pass. 

Here's who crossed the aisle:

On the GOP proposal to end the government shutdown and provide $5.7 billion for President Donald Trump's promised border wall:
  • Democrats who voted for: Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia
  • Republicans who voted against: Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas and Utah Sen. Mike Lee
On the Democrats' proposal to reopen the government without border wall funding: 
  • Republicans who voted for: Tennessee Sen. Lamar Alexander, Maine Sen. Susan Collins, Colorado Sen. Cory Gardner, Georgia Sen. Johnny Isakson, Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski, Utah Sen. Mitt Romney
  • Republicans who didn't vote: North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, Idaho Sen. Jim Risch 
  • Democrats who didn't vote: Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen
What happens next? Great question. Check out the live blog tracking ongoing shutdown negotiations at CNN.com.

CHRIS' GOOD READS

Bernie 2.0 by Jason Zengerle

Peter Beinart thinks Democrats are blowing it on the shutdown

The many unknown injuries of our presidents

The Gritty profile by the best person in America to write it: Sarah Larimer

Farhad Manjoo makes a convincing case for journalists to scale back their Twitter use

This whole Doomsday Clock thing is, like, a real bummer

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

Chris' emo dreams come true!  Phoebe Bridgers and Conor Oberst made a surprise album together!!!

INSTA POINT

Today's topic: About that Senate shutdown action...

HOW DO YOU SAY INTERVIEW IN RUSSIAN?

Our colleague Hunter Schwarz scored an interview with the Russian pop star Emin Agalarov, who helped orchestrate that infamous and fateful Trump Tower meeting in 2016.

Read the entire thing (seriously, do it) but enjoy these Trump-related nuggets in the meantime:

Hunter Schwartz: What do your fans in Russia make of your connection to Trump and the whole Mueller investigation?
EA: I think my fans in Russia find it strange, because everybody knows me in this part of the world as a music producer, as a guy who creates the biggest music events. I launched a radio station in Moscow, a musical TV channel, a musical award show. I do a lot of televised programs, and to consider me a spy is quite funny to everyone here.

HS: And continuing on with Trump, do you know if President Trump knew in advance about the Trump Tower meeting in June 2016?
EA: I have no idea.

HS: And you've said about that meeting that someone asked your dad to set that up but you don't know who. Have you found out anything since then about who asked him to set that up?
EA: No.

HS: Is that something you're curious about at all? Have you asked your dad about it?
EA: We haven't had a conversation about it recently.

 A HOUSE DIVIDED

How Trump's State of the Union is making history

The State of the Union is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Chris explains.

Don't hold back on subscribing to The Point on YouTube

LAUREN'S 2020 LATEST

Bill Weld: The former Libertarian candidate for VP and Republican governor of Massachusetts is scheduled for a New Hampshire stop at a must-visit-for-presidential-candidates Politics and Eggs event on February 15. 

Terry McAuliffe: The former Democratic governor of Virginia will announce whether or not he will run for president on March 31 at the University of Virginia. 

Elizabeth Warren: Still in the midst of an exploratory bid for president, Warren's advisers say she will propose a new annual "wealth tax" on Americans with more than $50 million in assets

SAY MY NAME, SAY MY NAME

With a name like Buttigieg it's -- hard to pronounce. (Mayor Pete's husband tweets that there are actually multiple ways to do it! Lauren thinks it's a choose your own adventure of sorts.) 

We're still a long way from Election Day 2020, and knowing that we'll be talking a lot about the candidates for president until then, Veronica Stracqualursi has a handy and helpful guide on candidates' name pronunciations.
  • Pete Buttigieg: Choose between "boot-edge-edge," "boot-tuh-judge" or even "Buddha Judge"
  • Kamala Harris: Kamala is pronounced like "comma-la"
  • Kirsten Gillibrand: "KEER-sten JILL-uh-brand"
  • Julián Castro: "hoo-lee-AHN," not "JOO-lee-in"
  • Amy Klobuchar: "KLOW-buh-shar"
  • Sherrod Brown: "Sher-uhd"

YOUR DAILY GIF

From Brenna: "Is Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel talking about public education or snowboard tricks? I will let you decide. Share The Point with someone who likes winter activities and/or children's education."
We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski. Follow Chris and Lauren on Twitter.
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