| | | | Donald Trump's 2020 secret sauce |  | | President Donald Trump isn't in a great place to win a second term in 2020.
His overall job approval rating has hovered in the low 40s -- and even upper 30s -- for the entirety of his first two years in office. Polling in critical swing states in the Midwest and Sun Belt suggests his electoral map is shrinking rather than expanding compared with 2016.
And yet and yet and yet, there's this: 71% of people in a new CNN-SSRS national poll think the economy is either "somewhat good" (45%) or "very good (26%). That's the highest rating for the economy in a CNN poll since February 2001. Which is a looooong time.
It's not only that people believe the economy is strong, either. It's that they give Trump credit for it. A majority (51%) in the CNN-SSRS poll approve of the job Trump is doing with the economy, while 42% disapprove. (It's the only issue -- out of the five asked about -- where more people approve than disapprove of how Trump is doing; Trump's overall approval rating in the poll is 42%.)
That economic message could well be Trump's secret sauce come 2020. In strong economies -- or economies perceived as strong -- voters tend to reward the incumbent president, just as they punish the president when the economy is faltering. Trump could well run on this basic argument: You may not like me or my style of politics. But look at the results! Is now really the time to change presidents?
In fact, he appears to be laying the groundwork for just such an argument.
"How do you impeach a man who is considered by many to be the President with the most successful first two years in history, especially when he has done nothing wrong and impeachment is for 'high crimes and misdemeanors'?" he tweeted last week.
Now. The heath of the economy could change over the next year-plus. Last month's jobs report was significantly less rosy than months previous. But at the moment, the perceived strength of the economy is the best 2020 argument Trump has going. By a lot.
The Point: Trump's only chance at a second term hinges on people believing he is responsible for the economic uptick. Even with that he could lose. But without it, he will lose.
-- Chris | | "I thought he was tall. Maybe it's because he's always standing on the table."
-- New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo offering his thoughts on fellow Democrat Beto O'Rourke in an interview this morning. | | | PUTTING THE "W" IN WELCOME | | Calling it "a blessing and a strength," former President George W. Bush praised America's immigrant history at a naturalization ceremony today.
"America's elected representatives have a duty to regulate who comes in and when," Bush said at the George W. Bush Presidential Center in Dallas, where dozens took the oath of allegiance to become citizens. "In meeting this responsibility, it helps to remember that America's immigrant history made us who we are. Amid all the complications of policy, may we never forget that immigration is a blessing and a strength."
These new citizens are also now officially Texans, Bush said.
"If you walk out of here with a little extra attitude in your step," Bush said, "it shows the culture is taking hold." | | Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina is running for re-election -- and Vice President Mike Pence will be on hand in the Palmetto State to give Graham a Pennsylvania Avenue boost, according to the Post and Courier.
Pence will headline Graham's 2020 Senate campaign launch on March 30 in Myrtle Beach and Greenville. | | Elizabeth Warren: Is participating in her CNN town hall tonight. The 9 p.m. ET televised event will air from Jackson, Mississippi.
Beto O'Rourke: Has pulled off the largest announced first-day fundraising haul of the 2020 cycle so far, with $6.1 million raised in the first 24 hours of his campaign. That beats Bernie Sanders' $5.9 million and Kamala Harris' $1.5 million in that same 24-hour window.
Bernie Sanders: Is calling his supporters to action off O'Rourke fundraising numbers in a new email, saying that while his rival may have raised more money, "we more than likely had a lot more individual donations than he did."
Kirsten Gillibrand: Is officially running for president. She switched from exploratory to fully announced bid on Sunday.
Larry Hogan: Is defining himself as from the "Ronald Reagan school of politics," should he take on Trump in a primary challenge. | | Colorado has joined a growing list of states that will give their Electoral College votes to the winner of the nation's popular vote.
That doesn't mean things will completely change come 2020.
The Centennial State is now the 12th to make the National Popular Vote pledge -- an agreement among states to elect the president by the national popular vote, rather than a winner determined by state-by-state tallies. But Colorado's newly approved change won't actually occur until enough states sign on to the pact (270 Electoral College votes' worth).
Colorado's addition brings that count to 181 votes.
Rhode Island, Vermont, Hawaii, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, Washington, New Jersey, New York, Illinois and California have already signed on -- New Mexico could be next, with the state Senate currently considering the measure. | | | | | | |
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