A funny thing has been happening in the markets over the past few weeks. While equities continue on a tear, often reaching record heights, the US dollar has slowly but surely been giving up some of its gains. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies has fallen about 4% since its January highs. There are many reasons for the dollar's decline. The weaker US growth in Q1 and lower forecasts for 2017 GDP may cause the Fed to revisit the number of rate rises this year (unlikely.) Worries over trade issues – NAFTA, China, TPP, TTIP etc has also given cause for concern. All these are reasons for the dollar's weakness. On the flip side, there are reasons for euro strength. France's new pro-European president has diminished worries about the euro's future. Economic growth is picking up in the eurozone and that has given renewed confidence in the single currency. Finally – and its very difficult to put a price on this – there is a level of policy confusion in Washington. The Trump rally was largely predicated on banking and tax reform. That is looking more difficult and farther down the road. So the dollar is coming under pressure. The dollar's fall is a far cry from the post-Brexit collapse of sterling…but it is a trend and it seems likely to continue. -Richard.Quest@cnn.com |
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