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Tuesday, May 9, 2017

Putin’s Really Bad 2017

Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Jason Miks.

May 9, 2017

Putin's Really Bad 2017: Bershidsky

Emmanuel Macron's election victory is just the latest in a series of disappointments for Russian President Vladimir Putin, argues Leonid Bershidsky for Bloomberg View.
 
"There are clearly forces in Putin's entourage that seek to convince him that the West is still weakening and that establishment forces are on the run. That's so 2016, though: The tide has turned and the pro-globalization, pro-EU forces are on the counterattack, led by a confident Merkel and a lucky, enthusiastic Macron," Bershidsky writes. "Whatever the divisions within Western democracies, they don't benefit Putin. Even the populist forces that have triumphed in the U.S., U.K. and eastern European countries such as Poland are emphatically not his friends."
 
"By smirking knowingly during their election turmoil, Putin maximized credit as a global force to be reckoned with, though the gleeful participation of Kremlin propaganda outlets has also made it impossible for him to take nuanced positions. Arguably, he is now more isolated than before the tumultuous European and U.S. elections."
  • Russia warning. "National Security Director Adm. Mike Rogers, who heads up U.S. Cyber Command, said Tuesday that the U.S. warned France about Russian cyberactivity prior to the hack of then-presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron last week," CNN reports.

Why Ditching Paris Accord is Pointless

President Trump has delayed a decision on withdrawing from the Paris climate accord until as late as the Group of 7 summit in Sicily, White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer said Tuesday. But David Roberts writes in Vox that there is simply no good reason to pull out.
 
"The spirit of the Paris negotiations was to solicit ambition, to get every country on record with specific action plans. In order to do that, negotiators deliberately refrained from including any legally enforceable compliance regime. The only thing participating countries have to do is a) have an NDC on record, and b) report emissions during regular reviews."
 

Taliban Turns the Screws. On Teachers

Afghan teachers are being lobbied to give students good grades. But not necessarily by parents, reports Sune Engel Rasmussen for The Guardian. It's often by the Taliban.

"In areas of eastern Afghanistan, militants intimidate teachers to let older boys who fight with the Taliban pass exams despite lackluster performances, according to education experts working in the region," Rasmussen writes.

"They say insurgents also pressure teachers not to record the absence of students who spend much of their time on the frontline.

"Not all teachers need coercing. Some are themselves active members of the Taliban, swapping chalk for Kalashnikovs after completing the day's lessons. They take their salary from the Afghan government, whose armed forces they then fight on the battlefield."
 

Canadians Heart Refugees, Not America: Poll

Most Canadians still have a positive view of immigrants. But of their southern neighbor? Not so much, according to a new poll, the Globe and Mail's Tavia Grant reports.
 
"Canadians' sentiment towards immigration hasn't wavered in the past six months, with eight in 10 people still agreeing that immigrants benefit the economy," Grant writes on the survey of 2,002 people.

The survey also registered Canadians' views on refugees, specifically, with Grant noting "a growing share of people" now disagreeing with the view that "refugee claimants are not legitimate."
 
But "attitudes towards the United States have soured, with fewer than half of Canadians now holding a favorable view of the United States – the lowest level since the survey started tracking this in 1982."
 

Venezuelans Gearing Up For War Against Government?

Anti-government demonstrators in Caracas and other Venezuelan cities "have started outfitting themselves in homemade armor and other improvised combat gear," write Mariana Zuñiga and Nick Miroff for the Washington Post, six weeks into anti-government protests.
 
"Along with conventional gas masks and helmets (many of them donated), colorful wooden shields are showing up on the front lines of the battles with National Guard troops.
 
"The security forces, meanwhile, appear increasingly determined to choke the protest movement with brute force, including the use of copious amounts of tear gas. Several protesters have been killed or severely injured by gas canisters fired into crowds or allegedly dropped from government helicopters."
 

Trouble Ahead for New South Korean President?

Moon Jae-in secured a landslide victory in South Korea's presidential election, with the result expected to be confirmed Wednesday morning, the Korea Times reports. "With the declaration, Moon will be immediately sworn in as president, without the luxury of a transition period."
  • Trump, not Kim making Koreans nervous. However, Moon will be greeted in office by a public that seems more worried about one of its closest allies than its saber rattling northern neighbor, suggests Suki Kim in Foreign Policy.
"A once triangular relationship, where Seoul and Washington were joined together against Pyongyang, is degenerating into two antagonisms: the United States versus North Korea and the United States versus South Korea.
 
"Social media has been buzzing with outrage over America's gapjil (bossy bullying), which treats Koreans as a hogu (pushover)," Kim writes. "South Koreans have always been deeply ambivalent about the U.S. troop presence in their country, and there are regular protests outside military bases. That can sometimes peak violently, as in 2002 when U.S. troops on maneuver accidentally ran over two 14-year-old girls and an American military court acquitted them of any wrongdoing. Between THAAD and Trump, another of these periods may be coming."
 

Time to Partition Syria?

Six years into Syria's civil war and major powers have failed to halt the violence. It's time to plan for partition, write Carol Choksy and Jamsheed Choksy in Yale Global.

"Syria already has been de facto partitioned by the opposing forces of the civil war. No political leadership represents the many domestic factions, and none could control the territory militarily and politically, or run a national administration," they write. "Moreover, there is no currently-envisaged governing coalition that would be acceptable to the major international players. Consequently for Syria the solution must be multilateral negotiations leading to separation into geographically-discreet, self-governing regions based on communal affiliations."

Chinese Firms' Verdict on Xi's "Marshall Plan"? Eh.

With unofficial spending projections as high as $4 trillion for construction of rail links, ports and other infrastructure, China's One Belt One Road project "could end up dwarfing the U.S. Marshall Plan" after World War II, writes Andrew Browne for the Wall Street Journal.
 
But four years after its launch by Chinese President Xi Jinping, "domestic economic realities -- slowing growth, mounting debt and fleeing capital -- are catching up with the plan."
 
And while some construction is undeniably taking place, "it's out of step with soaring official rhetoric: Expected beneficiaries are still waiting for the gusher of Chinese infrastructure funds to open up" as "Chinese companies are largely sticking to safer markets in the world's rich nations."
 

 

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