| | | | France's influence in the world might not compare with America's, but the success or failure of its new president will matter far beyond its shores, argues Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times.
"If [Emmanuel] Macron succeeds, the forces of nationalism and political extremism -- represented in France by his defeated opponent, Marine Le Pen -- will suffer a setback around the world," Rachman writes. "But if he fails, populism, nationalism and protectionism will soon be resurgent."
And yet, "the chances of failure are quite high. Mr Macron has simultaneously to reinvigorate the French economy and the 'European project.' Both are notoriously difficult to reform and face deep structural challenges that might defeat even the most imaginative and dynamic politician." - Should we worry about France's younger voters? Marine Le Pen's strong showing among younger voters means she's likely to be back to run again in 2022, The Independent's Ben Kentish writes.
"Almost half of young French voters voted for Marine Le Pen in the presidential run-off, early indications suggest.
"The far-right Ms Le Pen secured more support among young voters than any other age group. By contrast, she was backed by just 20 percent of over 65s."
| | Time To Pull Out of Afghanistan: Wissing | | | The Trump administration needs to accept the obvious: "The war in Afghanistan is unwinnable. It is time for the U.S. to withdraw its troops, and let the Afghans sort out their own problems," argues Douglas Wissing in Politico Magazine. "After 15 years of failed war with duplicitous partners and often self-delusional strategies, more of the same won't yield a different outcome," Wissing writes. "The Afghan insurgency has continued to grow in strength and territorial control through it all; through years of measured U.S. military pressure; through the Obama-era full-bore counterinsurgency Surge 1.0 with a hundred thousand troops and billions of dollars of "nation-building" aid; then through the last years of the robustly resourced counterterrorism campaign with billions of dollars of equipment, supplies and training for the Afghan security forces." | | Being a Nuclear Menace Doesn't Come Cheap | | Succeed or fail, North Korea's missile tests don't come cheap. That could explain an uptick in cyber crimes linked to Pyongyang, writes Kevin Poulsen for the Daily Beast.
"By one estimate, North Korea spent $1.3 billion on missile tests in 2012 alone. That may explain why the escalation in North Korea's nuclear provocations has been accompanied by a spree of attempted and actual online bank heists that trace right back to Pyongyang," Poulsen writes. "The largest of them was a nearly successful theft of almost $1 billion from Bangladesh Bank in 2016 -- enough money to fund North Korea's missile testing for almost a year." - Full Moon, dimming hopes? It's essential that President Trump and South Korea's next president "strike up instant, positive chemistry," writes Duyeon Kim in Foreign Affairs.
But "a win by the progressive candidate [Moon Jae-in] could spell turbulent times for the partnership, because of completely divergent views on how to deal with Pyongyang," Kim writes. "Such an environment would be conducive to North Korean exploitation. Moon might also puncture the united international front aimed at pressuring Pyongyang to change course and return to dialogue."
| | Why Peace Means More Americans Are Using Cocaine: Miroff | | | Peace in Colombia has had an unintended consequence – a surge in cocaine use in the United States, writes Nick Miroff for the Washington Post. "The peace accord signed last year by the Colombian government and leftist FARC rebels to end their 52-year war committed the guerrillas to quit the narcotics business and help rural families switch to legal crops," Miroff writes. "But the cash benefits available through the peace deal appear to have created a perverse incentive for farmers to stuff their fields with as many illegal plants as possible." "…American officials say the flood of cheap Colombian product is so large that it's quietly created its own demand. U.S. cocaine overdose deaths are at a 10-year high, and between 2013 and 2015, the number of young Americans who said they used cocaine for the first time increased 61 percent, according to the latest report by the U.S. Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration." | | China Gets Serious About Censorship: Report | | | China's government plans to further tighten the country's internet regulations, Reuters reports, "with a pledge on Sunday to strengthen controls over search engines and online news portals, the latest step in President Xi Jinping's push to maintain strict Communist Party control over content." "Xi has made China's 'cyber sovereignty' a top priority in his sweeping campaign to bolster security. He has also reasserted the ruling Communist Party's role in limiting and guiding online discussion." | | Why We Should Be More Worried About Al Qaeda | | | The decision to deploy the so-called "mother of all bombs" against ISIS in Afghanistan underscores a troubling reality – the U.S. appears to be too focused on the wrong terrorist threat in the country, suggests Michael Kugelman in Foreign Policy. The biggest danger isn't Islamic State – it's still al Qaeda, with an assist from the Taliban.
"One of America's mistakes after waging war on Iraq in 2003 was taking its eye off the ball in Afghanistan following early successes. This time around, Washington needs to maintain a laser-like focus on depriving al Qaeda of new Taliban-shielded sanctuaries in Afghanistan," he writes. "In so doing, it must make a better effort to understand what makes al Qaeda tick these days -- and particularly how it has undergone a strategic shift that aims to win over populations it may have previously preferred to ignore. "…While ample analysis has rightly been dedicated to understanding the success of the Islamic State's use of social media to radicalize Westerners, there remains a need to better understand the continued clout of al Qaeda ideology in the developing world, both in Afghanistan and beyond." | | | South Koreans head to the polls Tuesday to elect a new president. The favorite? Moon Jae-in -- sometimes known as "sweet potato," writes Anna Fifield for the Washington Post. She says that while the nickname stems from his image as "stodgy and dense," that the "sweet potato can be comfort food, and after the turmoil of the last six months…South Koreans want a known quantity." U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will meet with his Russian counterpart, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, on Wednesday "to discuss Ukraine, Syria and bilateral issues, the State Department announced Monday," CNN reports. Foreign ministers from the eight Arctic states – Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the United States -- will meet for the tenth Arctic Council Ministerial meeting on Thursday. U.S. Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Paul Zukunft warned last week that "the Russians 'have got all the pieces on the chess board' while the United States has only a rook and pawn in play in the Arctic," the U.S. Naval Institute reports. | | | | | | |
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