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Wednesday, July 12, 2017

Trump rally fueled by mega profits; Qatar in crisis; Brazil's Lula sentenced to jail 

Profitable Moment
 

Brazil's crisis doesn't end with Lula

Brazil's most popular president in recent times, Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva, was convicted Wednesday in a corruption scandal for accepting a free vacation home, and sentenced to nine and a half years in prison. His supporters claim the case is politically motivated, but observers say the evidence was strong!

So: Lula, convicted and sentenced; His former chief of staff, Dilma Rousseff, who went on to become president, impeached and removed from office last year; And her replacement, Michel Temer is now enmeshed in a nasty corruption scandal that could end up in his own resignation or impeachment. Is this a case of Brazil finally cleaning up the sewer of government corruption? I wish it were the case. 

The Petrobras scandal has brought down many, but few believe we have any idea of its true extent. Do we celebrate that which has been done, or should we worry that nothing will ever change?

All of this would be tragic in any country, let alone Latin America's largest nation and economy.

Lula remains out of prison pending appeal.  Will he ever serve time?  I don't know – that's up to the courts. But is this crises over? I doubt it. 

 

-Richard.Quest@cnn.com 

What's new... what's next
 

By Matt Egan, Patrick Gillespie, Julia Horowitz and Paul R. La Monica of CNNMoney

1. Qatar is isolated but defiant. What's next?

Arab countries boycotting Qatar aren't planning to end the country's isolation anytime soon. But Qatar is standing firm. So what now? Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt have a few options to ramp up the pressure, economists say. This could include convincing the country's business partners to downgrade ties to expelling Qatar  from the Gulf Cooperation Council. In the meantime, Qatar is finding creative ways to deal with its seclusion -- like airlifting in cows to ease a milk shortage.

2. Yellen: Trump's policies 'source of uncertainty'

The world's top central banker says President Trump's policies are creating more uncertainty about the U.S. economy's future. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen told Congress in testimony on Wednesday that Trump's sweeping economic agenda is a "source of uncertainty" for America's economic outlook. Yellen's comments come a few weeks after the IMF cut its forecast for U.S. growth, citing a lack of detail in Trump's policies. 

3. Trump rally kept alive by mega profits

The Trump rally was built on hopes of massive tax cuts. With tax reform's fate uncertain, the rally is now being kept alive by massive corporate profits. First-quarter profits spiked by the most since 2011. Wall Street is hoping that bottom lines keep growing as second-quarter numbers start rolling in. That's critical because even bulls concede stocks look expensive. And the nonstop drama in D.C. (see: the Donald Trump Jr. controversy) aren't helping the Trump agenda. 

4. Kraft Heinz-Unilever deal may not be dead yet

Kraft Heinz -- backed by the "Oracle of Omaha," Warren Buffett -- dropped plans to try and acquire rival food giant Unilever in February. But one Wall Street analyst thinks that Kraft Heinz could take another run at Unilever. And soon. That's because British takeover rules (Unilever is co-headquartered in the U.K. and The Netherlands) allow companies to launch new hostile bids for a company they previously targeted after a period of six months. Stay tuned.

5. Quick Takes:

Takata adds millions more airbags to the biggest auto recall in U.S. history

U.S. expects to lift laptop ban soon for foreign airports still affected

Former Anheuser-Busch CEO arrested after helicopter incident

Someone stole a security CEO's identity and declared him 'bankrupt'

RBS will pay $5.5 billion to settle claims it sold toxic mortgages

6. What's next:

Janet Yellen Part II: Will the Fed chief spark another rally on Wall Street? Yellen is scheduled to appear before the Senate on Thursday at 10 a.m. ET. Her prepared remarks, which on Wednesday seemed to reassure investors, are expected to be the same. But look for more Yellen fireworks during the Q&A portion of the hearing.

Will Delta keep flying high? Delta Air Lines hits the earnings runway before the market opens on Thursday. The carrier's stock price has climbed 12% this year and nearly 40% over the past 12 months. Delta is expected to reveal its first increase in unit-revenue since the end of 2014.

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