| | | | Fareed: Washington Circus Hurts America | | | The US government shutdown is set to end after Democrats in the Senate agreed Monday to a deal with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell for a vote on immigration. But Fareed says the truth is that the episode has already done further damage to America's global image. "You only need to look at the Gallup poll last week on US leadership to see that the reputation of the United States has collapsed. Part of that is this self-interested view of America's place in the world encapsulated by 'America First.' But another reason for the disillusionment is, frankly, the dysfunction we are seeing -- the circus that is the American government right now. When we see dysfunction in other countries, we dismiss them as banana republics. But what should we be saying about a government that literally can't keep itself open? "President Trump has tried to blame the shutdown on the Democrats. And it's true, as I wrote in the Washington Post last week, that both parties have staked out increasingly extreme positions on immigration. But the reality is that Republicans have arguably more political control than at any point since the 1920s. Despite this, the government was still shut down for two days because Congress couldn't agree a deal. To me, that seems like at least a bloody nose for the governing party." "And don't forget, we have probably an even bigger political fight coming up over the debt ceiling. We could hit the ceiling sometime at the end of February, or shortly after. So, we might be going through much of this all over again, watching a government unwilling to pay for what it has spent. It's like you've charged the credit card, but you suddenly have second thoughts when you get the bill. It's senseless." | | What Trump Needs to Say in Davos | | | President Trump's speech in Davos on Friday is bound to be compared with Chinese President Xi Jinping's defense of globalization at last year's meeting. But as the world grapples with "the declining appeal of democratic global values," it's far from clear if Trump will look to "reassure or provoke" his audience, writes Lawrence Summers in the Financial Times. "In countries as diverse as the US, UK, Turkey, Russia, Israel and China, it appears the governmental platform that commands the most popular support is rooted in nativism, nationalism and negativism. Populist nationalism eventually produces bad economic results, leading to more pressures for anti-establishment leadership and for extreme policies. It is far from obvious what re-equilibrates the system," Summers writes. So, what should Trump say? "It depends crucially on what he believes and that is far from clear. The world can accept a message that the US wants a fairer allocation of the burden of upholding the global system, that after a period of weak economic performance America needs to concentrate more efforts at home, and that it will be guided by its economic and security interests, and not the promotion of abstract values. But such a message needs to be accompanied by clear signals that the US will strive to be a reliable and predictable partner, that it understands its interest in strong effective global institutions, and that it recognizes that even self-interested nations can benefit from thoughtful diplomacy. If this is the combination of messages that comes out of Davos, a nervous world may become a bit less nervous. That would be a very good thing for those gathered at the forum — and everyone else as well." | | Americans Really Don't Trust Government (But China Does) | | | Public trust in government is moving in dramatically different directions in the United States and China, according to the latest Edelman Trust Barometer, with the latter "showing the most extreme positive changes in trust and the US the most extreme negative changes." The annual report finds that trust in institutions among "informed" Americans (college educated, higher earners who report significant media consumption) has "imploded, down 23 Trust Index points to 45, ranking the US lowest of the 28 nations surveyed, and all but eliminating the trust gap between the informed public and the mass population. This decline is transversal, across age, region and gender." Meanwhile, "China's trust is soaring; it is now the No. 1 nation on the Trust Index among both the informed public and the general population. The government and media have always been highly trusted, but there is an inexorable rise in business and NGOs. The middle class is growing quickly, and Chinese brands such as Tencent and Alibaba are moving aggressively into global markets. China's trust scores are nearly matched by India, the UAE, Indonesia and Singapore, while the Western democracies languish mostly in distruster territory, challenging the traditional geopolitical vision of satisfaction with systems." | | Erdogan Gambles. It Could Go Sour | | | Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has taken a gamble with his weekend assault on Syrian Kurd forces. The move puts him at odds with key players in the region – and could easily turn sour, argues Simon Tisdall in The Guardian. "For Erdoğan and likeminded nationalists, the idea of an autonomous or independent Kurdish entity stretching from northern Iraq to Turkey's Hatay province in the west, and potentially embracing parts of south-east Turkey, is an existential nightmare. Preventing it has eclipsed other considerations. Now the president is chancing his arm again," Tisdall writes. "Erdoğan's big problem, Kurdish resistance aside, is that none of the big players support him. He was obliged to send officials to Moscow last week to obtain Russia's agreement. Even so, the Russian foreign ministry expressed serious concern on Sunday. "Erdoğan is also at odds with the Trump administration, and not for the first time. There are longstanding tensions over perceived past Turkish ambivalence towards ISIS, NATO use of Turkish air bases, visas for Turkish citizens and Erdoğan's claims that the 2016 coup was masterminded from the US by an exiled cleric." | | 2017 Was Really Good...for Billionaires: Report | | | The world is producing new billionaires at an unprecedented pace, with an average of one more being added every other day, a new Oxfam report finds. "There are now 2,043 dollar billionaires worldwide. Nine out of 10 are men," Oxfam says in its "Reward Work, Not Wealth" report. "In 12 months, the wealth of this elite group has increased by $762 billion. This is enough to end extreme poverty seven times over. "In the period between 2006 and 2015, ordinary workers saw their incomes rise by an average of just 2% a year, while billionaire wealth rose by nearly 13% a year – almost six times faster." "Approximately a third of billionaire wealth is derived from inheritance. Over the next 20 years, 500 of the world's richest people will hand over $2.4 trillion to their heirs – a sum larger than the GDP of India, a country of 1.3 billion people." | | | Officials from the United States, Canada and Mexico meet in Montreal beginning Tuesday for the penultimate round of talks on the future of NAFTA. "Many experts say the most likely scenario is that NAFTA talks get kicked way down the road to 2019. But among the other two alternatives -- striking a deal or killing it – there's no doubt what has better odds," writes Patrick Gillespie for CNN Money. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson visits Paris on Tuesday. Emile Simpson suggests that the trip comes at a time when French President Emmanuel Macron is riding high. From the Middle East, to Africa, to Asia, Macron "has been the most prominent European statesperson on the global stage since his election," Simpson writes in Foreign Policy. The key to his success so far? Emphasizing shared European values in Europe, but not preaching about them to outsiders. | | | | | | |
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