| | | | Why Republicans should start panicking, in 1 chart | | Midterm elections are about one thing: Base enthusiasm.
Unlike presidential elections -- where casual voters dial in and turn out -- midterm elections, historically speaking, tend to be the dominion of only the most committed party warriors. And those most committed party warriors almost exclusively hail from the extreme edges of both the Democratic and Republican coalitions -- i.e. the most liberal and the most conservative elements.
Which brings me to the chart above. It's from a brand new national Pew poll and shows one thing very clearly: The Democratic base is more passionate than its Republican counterpart about the 2018 midterms.
Almost 7 in 10 (69%) of Democrats say they are "looking forward" to the 2018 midterms, as compared to 58% of Republicans. Dig deeper and the enthusiasm gap widens. More than 8 in 10 self-described "liberals" are looking forward to the coming election, as compared to 61% of "conservatives."
A look back at the 2010 and 2014 midterms reveals why these numbers matter so much.
At this point in 2010, Republicans had a 15-point enthusiasm edge over Democrats as it related to the midterms. In 2014, it was a 12-point Republican lead. In 2010 and 2014, conservatives were overwhelmingly more likely to be looking forward to the election than liberals.
And, what happened in those elections? Massive across-the-board gains for Republicans -- everywhere from the state legislative level to the US Senate.
Why? Because, in each case, the GOP base was excited and motivated to turn out in midterm elections to send a negative message to then-President Barack Obama about his handling of health care -- among other things.
Now the shoe is on the other foot. Democrats are enraged at Trump's presidency and view 2018 as their first, best chance to make sure he knows it.
From the almost three dozen Democratic takeovers of Republican-held seats in state legislatures across the country to Doug Jones' landmark win in Alabama at the end of 2017, the enthusiasm gap between the two parties has been playing itself out on the ground, as well as in polls like this one from Pew.
The Point: Republicans have to hope they can find some way(s) to motivate their base between now and November 6. Because you can be certain that Democrats are, to borrow a phrase, fired up and ready to go.
-- Chris | | "We don't have a reliable partner at the White House to negotiate with."
-Sen. Lindsey Graham as he walked into US Capitol and was told of Trump's tweets this morning (per The Washington Post) | | | | It's the "Final Countdown" to a potential shutdown so, why not listen to that jam while you read the news tonight and tomorrow. And before you ask, yes, CNN does have a countdown clock on air. | | CNN's Daniella Diaz wrote up a handy guide to understanding what happens during a government shutdown. Brenna Williams summed it up best on Twitter. Basically, if there's a shutdown...
✅ Mail will still be delivered, as US Postal Service won't stop serving residents.
✅ Transportation Security Administration, Social Security and air traffic control will continue to be funded, even if some employees of those agencies are not.
✅ The military would also still report for duty. However, troops will potentially not be paid during a shutdown.
❌ Agencies that pay out small business loans and process passport requests will cease to work.
❌ Permits from Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives will be unavailable until after shutdown.
❌ National parks, zoos and museums will be closed.
Read more in Daniella's full story here. | | SPEAKING OF A SHUTDOWN... | | Brenna's #tbt this week highlights memorable quotes form the 2013 shutdown, aka the last time one occurred. It lasted 16 days in October and ended with a temporary debt and spending deal. Here are some of the quotes Brenna highlighted: - "Knock it off. Pass a budget. And move on." -- President Barack Obama, to House Republicans.
- "This isn't some damn game." -- House Speaker John Boehner, responding to the idea that Democratic leadership saw the shutdown as a win.
- "I'd like to be escorted." -- Vice President Joe Biden, who showed up at the Environmental Protection Agency with muffins after the shutdown concluded.
Read more in Brenna's full throwback Thursday story here. | | | House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi will be a guest judge the new season of RuPaul's "Drag Race All Stars." Yes, really. The show announced Pelosi will join a handful of celebrities including Tituss Burgess, Vanessa Hudgens, Kristen Chenoweth and others. Pelosi tweeted: "All I can say is, you betta werk! Had a fabulous time with @RuPaul and good luck to all the queens. #DragRaceNancy." Read more in Saba's story here. | | | CNN's Brian Stelter -- who, by the way, has a great newsletter you should also subscribe to -- counted how many times President Trump has used the word "fake" since he was inaugurated. The grand total is 400 times. More than once a day, on average, he has publicly assailed "fake news," "fake polls," "fake media" and "fake stories." Get the full breakdown in Brian's story here. | | Walking into Friday like...
Anyway, as always, please remind everyone you know to stay informed by subscribing to The Point. Thank you! | | We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media and more. Our authors for The Point are Chris Cillizza and Saba Hamedy. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris or Saba. Follow on Twitter: Chris and Saba. | | | | | | |
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