| | | | The 2018 playing field is tipping toward Democrats big time | | | The 2018 midterm elections aren't for another 271 days. But the shape of the playing field on which the battle for control of the House will be fought is beginning to form -- and it looks very, very problematic for Republicans.
On Thursday, the Cook Political Report, a leading nonpartisan handicapping site, moved 21 House districts in favor of Democrats; Cook house editor David Wasserman suggests that still might underestimate Democrats' ceiling in terms of seat gains this fall.
"Most new district-by-district fundraising and polling numbers are downright terrible for Republicans, even in seats previously thought to be safe," writes Wasserman. Those moves jibe with a series of changes CNN made to its own House ratings on Thursday -- with a handful of Democratic incumbents moving off the competitive list entirely and several Republican incumbents, including New York's Claudia Tenney, in more trouble. There are now 66 GOP-held seats on CNN's list of competitive races as compared to just 15 for Democrats. Cook rates 67 Republican seats as competitive as compared to just 25 for Democrats.
Those numbers have to be scary for Republicans hoping to cling to their 24-seat majority. Why? Because what we've seen of late -- fueled by remarkably successful fundraising by dozens of Democratic candidates -- is an expansion of the ground where this election will be fought. And that expansion is entirely in Republican territory. What that means in practical terms is that Democrats have more margin for error as they try to net two dozen seats. If a race they expected to be competitive suddenly collapses, it doesn't doom their chances as they now have two, three or even four other seats to replace it.
The other potential impact of the widening of the playing field in Democrats' favor is that if there is a massive wave that sweeps the country -- and signs suggest something is building -- then the party could score massive gains as any even quasi-marginal seat falls to them.
(That, by the by, is what happened for Republicans in 2010 when they netted 63 seats including in some districts that not even the most optimistic Republican operative thought they had a chance to win.)
The Point: The election may feel like it is a long way away. But the map on which Democrats and Republicans will fight is evolving in important ways as I type. And that evolution is all in favor of Democrats.
-- Chris | | "Can you comment on why you often seem a little bit out of the loop on some of this major news?"
-A reporter's question to Vice President Pence about Rob Porter | | | WH RESPONDS TO PORTER ALLEGATIONS | | | Speaking of Porter, CNN's Dan Merica reports: "White House spokesman Raj Shah said Thursday that the White House 'could have done better' over the last few days when it came to 'dealing with' the domestic violence allegations against former top aide Rob Porter.
"But Shah also repeatedly declined to get into specifics about how much the White House knew last year about the allegations against Porter. The White House spokesman also said a photo of one of Porter's ex-wives with a black eye published Wednesday changed the conversation inside the West Wing, but he failed to explain why the administration -- namely chief of staff John Kelly -- needed to see images to believe the accusers. "'I think it's fair to say we all could have done better dealing with this over the last few days,' Shah said."
Read more in Dan's full story here. | | | Senate leaders reached a two-year budget deal. Congress must pass a deal before midnight to avoid a shutdown. From CNN's Phil Mattingly: "Congress has until midnight to pass a budget deal to keep the government open and avert a shutdown. But the vote could happen after midnight. "Why? While the Senate has plenty of votes to pass the agreement, it's unclear if the House has the votes.
"What does that mean for the deal? The longer a massive package like this hangs out there, the more reasons people find to oppose or have problems with it. It's fair to say leaders are frustrated and want this to move quickly.
"So, will this get to President Trump's desk before midnight? We don't know. But each hour that passes makes it more likely the midnight shutdown threshold will be crossed." Sen. Rand Paul, a Republican from Kentucky, is blocking a vote on a bipartisan spending agreement, saying it will add too much debt. "What you're seeing is recklessness, trying to be passed off as bipartisanship," he said. "So we've gotten together. They're all holding hands and there is only one bad guy standing in the way. One guy is going to keep us here until three in the morning. Well, you know what, I think the country is worth a debate until three o'clock in the morning, frankly."
As of our trusty 7:30 p.m. newsletter deadline, the shutdown was looming. Follow along with CNN's live updates here. | | | GIF: CBS/Celebrity Big Brother/Twitter | | Former White House aide Omarosa Manigault-Newman made her return to reality TV on Wednesday night in the season premiere of CBS' "Celebrity Big Brother." During the episode -- which CNN's Chloe Melas wrote about here -- the "Celebrity Apprentice" alum opened up about her time in the White House (You can watch a clip on YouTube here).
"There's a lot of people that want to stab me in the back, kind of similar to the White House," she said. "The one thing I learned from politics is you have to learn how to watch your own back and in some cases you have to watch your front, too."
In an emotional chat with Ross Matthews on the show, she said she "felt like it was a call to duty" to work at the White House. "It was always about the country," she said. "I was haunted by tweets every single day. Like, what is he going to tweet next?"
"Should we be worried?" Matthews asked.
"It's going to not be OK. It's not," she replies.
BTW: The White House deputy press secretary responded to Manigault-Newman's remarks by saying the White House does not take them seriously. "Omarosa was fired three times on 'The Apprentice' and this is the fourth time we've let her go." | | Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a California Democrat, is facing a primary challenge against California State Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de León this year. But according to a new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California, she holds a massive lead in the double digits.
Feinstein, who is seeking her fifth term, leads de León 46% to 17%. A third of likely voters -- 33% -- are undecided, according to the survey. A majority of likely voters polled -- 52% -- had a favorable opinion of Feinstein.
As CNN's Eric Bradner pointed out in one of his recent articles, "Feinstein is a powerfully placed female lawmaker with a reputation on Capitol Hill that allows her to take on Trump from a position of authority and credibility -- all qualities that existed before, but have now taken on increased political importance following a cultural reckoning that called out powerful men who abused their power and sought to elevate women's voices." | |  | | H/T Brenna | | | Is it Friday yet? Please tell people you know to subscribe to The Point. | | We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Our authors for The Point are Chris Cillizza and Saba Hamedy. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris or Saba. Follow on Twitter: Chris and Saba. | | | | | | |
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