| | | | Why the GOP Memo Makes America's Allies Nervous: Vinograd | | The Republican memo released Friday was not only a costly political distraction that sucked up the time and attention of Congress and the intelligence community, writes Samantha Vinograd for Just Security. It will also have unnerved America's allies – and hurt the intelligence sharing that the United States relies on for its security.
"The world is watching, and if you're a foreign intelligence service, there's considerably less and less upside to sharing intelligence with the United States any more, particularly if it relates to Russia," writes Vinograd, who served on the National Security Council during the Obama administration.
"The truth is, there's less certainty that sensitive intelligence and the names of specific sources won't end up on the House Intelligence Committee's website or all over Twitter. Take the Nunes memo — it specifically references an FBI source, former UK intelligence agent Christopher Steele, and notes that he was previously a source for the United States with a history of credible reporting. It also tries to drag his name through the mud. There is talk that to defend against the allegations in the memo, other members of Congress will need to reveal more about the underlying classified information. And due to the step of selective declassification, litigants have already asked a federal court to compel the government to more fully disclose related documents.
"If you're the Israeli Mossad or British MI6, your relationship with peers in the US was bound by a knowledge that rules were in place. There were metrics for multiple layers within the US government to meet before intelligence was declassified or reclassified. Today, that doesn't hold water anymore, and we're all a lot less safe because of it."
| | Pence's Big Olympics Mission | | North Korea has recently engaged in a charm offensive with its southern neighbor, including agreeing to its athletes marching under one flag at the Winter Olympics. Vice President Mike Pence's mission when he travels to South Korea this week? To make sure that this "charm offensive falls flat," writes Josh Rogin in the Washington Post.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in "holds out hope that Olympic cooperation can lead to further North-South engagement. The White House believes such engagement would mean further economic concessions to Pyongyang, undermining the bite of the sanctions," Rogin writes.
"Pence could soothe nerves in Seoul and allow Moon domestic political cover by assuring him Trump won't use force on the Korean Peninsula without South Korea's sign-off. The two leaders should also have a real discussion to agree on common red lines. Pence might also want to avoid issues that antagonize Moon's base, such as the KORUS free-trade agreement.
"Moon could repair his relationship with the White House by reaffirming his commitment to the 'maximum pressure' approach and assuring Pence he won't cut any more deals with the Kim regime. He should also be open to responsible contingency planning just in case conflict does break out."
| | What Trump's Health Service Attack Gets Wrong: Ball | | President Trump's Tweet on Monday attacking Britain's National Health Service was misguided, argues James Ball for The Guardian. Britain's system is far from perfect, but it offers much better value than America's.
"Despite its popularity...the NHS performs roughly mid-table in terms of bang for its buck: some countries spending roughly the same on health get considerably better outcomes, others get much worse. One country the UK outstrips by a huge amount, though, is the US.
"According to data gathered by the OECD, the average UK spend per head on healthcare is $4,192 (£2,989) – and it has a life expectancy of 81.6 years. The US spends more than twice this amount, $9,892 – far more than any other country in the world – and yet life expectancy is far lower," Ball writes.
"What's maybe the most staggering fact is that the US government spends more money on healthcare than the UK government does, despite the latter managing to offer a comprehensive, single-payer health system for the price. The total is $4,860 per person – that's more than the UK's total health budget, and $1,500 a head more than the UK government spends."
| | The Big Hurdle for Team Trump's Latin America Plans? Team Trump | | Secretary of State Rex Tillerson's recent praise for the Monroe Doctrine suggests that the United States is finally willing to confront China's growing role in Latin America, Andrés Oppenheimer writes for the Miami Herald. But he says that the Trump administration faces one big problem if it wants to push back: "[Y]ou can't win over Latin American countries if you're constantly insulting them."
"There is no question that China is gaining ground in Latin America. While Latin America bought 50 percent of its total imports from the United States in 2000, that percentage has gone down to only 33 percent today. Meantime, China's share of Latin America's imports grew from 3 percent to 18 percent during the same period, according to an Inter-American Development Bank study.
"But what Tillerson won't say is that the Trump administration is directly responsible for worsening US-Latin American ties over the past year. Trump's approval rate in the region, on a scale of 0 to 10, is at an all-time low of 2.7, according to a recent Latinobarómetro poll," Oppenheimer writes.
"While Trump is insulting Latin Americans, the Chinese are courting them. President Xi Jinping has visited the region three times during the past four years, while Trump has not set foot in the region. Likewise, China's foreign minister Wang Yi has made two trips to South America during the past 15 months, while Tillerson is making his first trip to South America this week."
| | Vice President Mike Pence will visit Tokyo on Wednesday on his way to the Winter Olympics taking place later this week in South Korea. The Mainichi editorializes that the Trump administration's just-released Nuclear Posture Review will "almost certainly trigger a backlash and military expansion in not just Russia and China, but also in places like Iran and North Korea. Rather than take that risk, it would be far safer and far more sensible to promote global disarmament including China and Russia."
Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi, considered President Xi Jinping's top foreign affairs adviser, will visit the United States on Thursday following an invitation from Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, China's official Xinhua News Agency reports.
South African President Jacob Zuma is scheduled to deliver his State of the Union address on Thursday. Bloomberg reports that the leadership of the country's ruling African National Congress wants Zuma gone as soon as possible. "While Zuma is due to step down in mid-2019, his nine-year tenure has been marred by a series of scandals and policy missteps. Critics say if he remains in office, the party could lose the electoral majority it has enjoyed since it took power under Nelson Mandela," write Sam Mkokeli and Amogelang Mbatha for Bloomberg.
The opening ceremony of the Winter Olympic Games in PyeongChang takes place on Friday. Per Reuters: "North Korea's ceremonial leader [Kim Yong Nam] will make an unprecedented visit to South Korea this week, officials said on Monday, as hopes grew for high-level inter-Korean talks during the Winter Olympics." | | | | | | |
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