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Tuesday, May 8, 2018

The Point: 5 questions tonight's primaries will answer

May 8, 2018  by Chris Cillizza and Saba Hamedy

5 questions tonight's primaries will answer

Welcome to the first big primary night of the 2018 election!

Four states -- Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina and West Virginia -- will hold party primaries. There's a LOT to look at, so here's a handy, dandy viewer's guide for the most important storylines of the night.

1. Can Don Blankenship win? The West Virginia coal mine owner has used his own money to fund lots and lots of ads in his GOP primary race against Rep. Evan Jenkins and state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey. Of late, Blankenship has drawn lots of national attention -- all of it bad -- for his nativist and racist attacks on Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao and her husband, Mitch McConnell. If Blankenship wins, Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin will likely cruise to a second term.

2. Sen. Mike Braun? The former state representative used more than $5 million in personal money to dominate the airwaves in the Indiana Republican US Senate primary. His two opponents -- Reps. Luke Messer and Todd Rokita -- got bogged down fighting one another and their connection to Washington. If Braun wins, his personal wealth could save Republicans some cash that the party could dump into other races.

3. Can Dennis Kucinich show the power of the left? The former Ohio congressman -- and presidential candidate -- is challenging former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Chair Richard Cordray for the Democratic nomination for governor. Kucinich has name ID and is a darling of liberals. Cordray is seen as the more electable of the two in the fall.

4. Is another Pence coming to Washington? In Indiana's 6th District, which Messer left to run for governor, Greg Pence, the vice president's older brother, is the favorite in the GOP primary. If Pence wins tonight, he'd be a heavy favorite to represent this eastern Indiana seat in Congress since President Trump carried it with 68% in 2016.

5. A Trump bump in Ohio? Trump convinced Rep. Jim Renacci to switch from the governor's race to the Senate race when favorite Josh Mandel dropped out of the race suddenly in January. ".@JimRenacci has worked so hard on Tax Reductions, Illegal Immigration, the Border and Crime," Trump tweeted last week. "I need Jim very badly to help our agenda and to keep MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! He will be a fantastic Senator for the Great State of Ohio, and has my full endorsement!" Renacci should win the GOP nomination. But does Trump's endorsement turn the primary into a Renacci rout?

The Point: The Senate races in Indiana and West Virginia -- and, to a lesser extent, Ohio -- have huge national implications for the fall. Ditto the Ohio gubernatorial primaries. Tonight will give us our first hints of how the two parties are reacting to the Trump era -- and what voters make of it, too.

-- Chris

🚨 MORE ELECTION INFO 🚨

Speaking of Election Day....CNN's Adam Levy and Wade Payson-Denney put together a great guide of things to know. Here are a few:
  • Polls in West Virginia, Ohio and North Carolina are open from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m EDT. Polls in Indiana are open from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. LOCAL (some counties are in CDT and will finish voting at 7 p.m. Eastern).
  • Republicans are concerned about Don Blankenship, a former coal baron who served a year in prison for his role in a deadly mine explosion. A win for Blankenship could jeopardize one of the party's best chances to take out Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, who's considered extremely vulnerable in the fall.
  • Indiana will showcase another Republican battle for a Senate nomination. While the fight isn't as personal as West Virginia, the candidates are doing everything they can to tie themselves to the President, who remains popular with Hoosiers.
  • Ohio's Democratic primaries could stoke establishment vs. Bernie Sanders flames. Former Obama consumer head Richard Cordray faces former Congressman Dennis Kucinich for the Democratic nod in the governor's race. Cordray is the favorite of the party establishment and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, while Kucinich has backing from Sen. Bernie Sanders' supporters.
Read more in their full guide here.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"Just win, baby."

-- House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi on Democratic candidates who oppose her

CHRIS' GOOD READS

Yahoo's Hunter Walker asks the question I have been wondering about: Is Cory Booker for real?

This article, from 2015, is a good outline of what is in the Iran nuclear deal that Trump just pulled out of

James Comey sat down with The Washington Post -- and talked about Rudy Giuliani

Vanity Fair's Joe Pompeo examines NBC in the post-Lauer era

Winners and losers from the Met Ball via The Ringer's Kate Halliwell

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

Sufjan Stevens' "Carrie & Lowell Live" album.

INSTA POINT

Today's topic? Don Blankenship (!) and the West Virginia Senate race.

TRUMP WITHDRAWS FROM IRAN DEAL

From CNN's Kevin Liptak: "President Donald Trump announced Tuesday he is quitting the Iran nuclear deal, pitting him against the United States' closest allies and leaving the future of Tehran's nuclear ambitions in question. In announcing his decision, Trump said he would initiate new sanctions on the regime, crippling the touchstone agreement negotiated by his predecessor.

"It is clear to me that we cannot prevent an Iranian nuclear bomb under the decaying and rotten structure of the current agreement," Trump said from the White House Diplomatic Room. "The Iran deal is defective at its core. If we do nothing we know exactly what will happen." Read more here.

BTW, what exactly is in the deal? In exchange for limits on its nuclear activities, Iran would get relief from sanctions while continuing its atomic program for peaceful purposes. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said the United States failed to live up to its international commitments under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as the Iran deal. 

Meanwhile ... the European Union's top diplomat says Europe is "determined to preserve" the deal following Trump's decision to withdraw from it. Russia's ambassador to the United Nations said he is "disappointed" by Trump's action and British Prime Minister Theresa May said she "regrets" the US withdrawal from the Iran deal in a joint statement with the UK, Germany and France. Also unhappy about Trump's withdrawal from the deal: Democratic lawmakers.

#2020 WATCH

CNN's Jennifer Hansler reports: "In solidarity with striking workers, Sen. Kamala Harris has withdrawn as the commencement speaker for UC Berkeley's upcoming graduation ceremony.
 
'Due to a UC-wide speaker boycott called by AFSCME Local 3299, US Senator Kamala Harris has withdrawn as UC Berkeley's commencement speaker,' the Bay-area university announced in a statement Monday.

Harris' office said in a statement, provided by Berkeley: 'Due to the ongoing labor dispute, Sen. Harris regretfully cannot attend and speak at this year's commencement ceremony at UC Berkeley. She wishes the graduates and their families a joyous commencement weekend and success for the future. They are bright young leaders, and our country is counting on them.'

According to the Los Angeles Times, more than 20,000 UC employees statewide walked off their jobs yesterday as part of a three-day strike. The workers, all members of AFSCME Local 3299, include 'custodians, gardeners, cooks, truck drivers, lab technicians and nurse aides.' Thousands more joined the strike Tuesday."

SPOTTED: MITT AT THE #METGALA

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and wife Ann Romney joined A-listers at this year's Met Gala in New York City on Monday evening. The internet was seemingly confused by their appearance at the event, considered fashion's biggest night. Per The New York Times: The Romneys "attended at the invitation of Stephen Schwarzman, an old friend and business associate, and one of the honorary chairmen of this year's event. Mr. Romney was wearing a Brioni tuxedo, size 40 long, that he had found -- 'Don't you dare!' interrupted Mrs. Romney -- on deep discount on Amazon."

Romney did not win the Utah Republican Party's nomination, so he will compete in a June primary election as he seeks to replace retiring US Sen. Orrin Hatch. As CNN's Maeve Reston previously reported: "Romney is considered a favorite to win the seat. He is widely admired in this heavily Republican state, where he helped rescue the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympic Games. But when he decided to seek Hatch's seat, he landed in the middle of a long-running fight within the Utah Republican Party over its process for choosing its nominees."

HASPEL HEARING COMING UP

Gina Haspel's Senate Intelligence Committee confirmation hearing to be the next CIA director is Wednesday. The White House has rallied behind Haspel for the position, but not everyone on the Hill is convinced she's the right pick. CNN's Daniella Diaz reported Tuesday that Sen. Jon Tester, a Montana Democrat, is openly opposed to supporting Haspel. "I'm not a huge fan of waterboarding," Haspel told Diaz.

During the hearing, Haspel will likely be asked about her time in the George W. Bush administration's interrogation and detention program, specifically her role in the 2005 destruction of CIA interrogation tapes. Read more here.

YOUR DAILY GIF

H/T Brenna
From Brenna: "Guys, it's been almost a year and a half, and I'm still not over how large President Trump's signature is. Especially on important things like those that pull us out of the Iran agreement. Tell your friends to use their digital signatures to sign up for The Point newsletter."
We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Our authors for The Point are Chris Cillizza and Saba Hamedy. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris or Saba. Follow on Twitter: Chris and Saba.
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