| | | | House Democrats, 99 days out from 2018 election: 😁 | | The House playing field just keeps tilting toward Democrats as the November midterm election creeps ever closer.
With just 99 days left in the 2018 cycle, Democrats appear poised to retake the House majority they lost in the 2010 election, according to a new analysis by CNN's own Terence Burlij.
The math goes like this: Democrats need to net 23 Republican-controlled seats to win the majority. At the moment, CNN rates 11 Republican-held seats as "leaning Democratic" or worse for the GOP. Let's assume those 11 seats go for Democrats.
Now, we are down to only 12 additional pickups for Democrats to win the majority. Take a gander at the "toss-up" ratings in the chart above. Of the 27 seats currently rated as "toss-ups" by CNN, Republicans control 25 of them. If Democrats win just under half -- 12 -- of those GOP seats, they are back in the majority. (Traditionally, one party tends to win the vast majority of the "toss-up" races because House contests -- particularly very close ones -- tend to be heavily affected by the national mood. And the national mood typically favors one side at the end of an election.)
The other math problem for Republicans -- aside from the large amount of vulnerability they carry in seats they currently hold -- is how few opportunities they have of picking off Democratic seats. CNN rates only 13 Democratic seats as competitive at all -- with just two "toss-ups" and four that lean in Democrats' favor. There are zero Democratic-held seats where Republicans are currently favored.
Add it up and you see just how much trouble Republicans are in right now. (Periodic reminder: This is politics in the age of Trump so a) things can change quickly and b) history is not always indicative of future results.)
The Point: Democrats have to be very happy with where they are 99 days out from the midterms. If the election were held today, they would almost certainly take back the House. Of course, the election isn't today, so....
-- Chris | | "He turned out to have a close friend betray him, like Iago betrayed Othello, like Brutus put the last knife into Caesar. It happens in life, that you get double-crossed."
-Rudy Giuliani, President Donald Trump's lawyer, comparing Michael Cohen to famous traitors from history. Read Chris' roundup of 36 other strange lines from Giuliani's CNN interview. | | | TRUMP AND ITALY'S PM: WHAT YOU MAY HAVE MISSED | | | President Trump and Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte took questions at a news conference on Monday, during which Trump touched on a lot of topics. Here are some noteworthy moments: | | | NPR has done it again with this list: The 200 Greatest Songs By 21st Century Women. It includes a wide variety of jams from artists including: T. Swift, Evanescence, Metric, Gwen Stefani, Metric, the Moldy Peaches, Beyonce, Jenny Lewis and many, many, many more. | | | Today's topic: Rudy Giuliani has a point about collusion, but he ignores what's important. | | MANAFORT TRIAL: A PREVIEW | | Jury selection for the trial of former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort kicks off tomorrow. Here's what you need to know, courtesy of CNN's Marshall Cohen (who will be covering the trial this week in Virginia). - The first Mueller trial is finally here. Special counsel Robert Mueller's prosecutors will take on their first trial. Until now, all we've seen was a series of guilty pleas, pretrial hearings and other procedural maneuvers. We're entering a new chapter now.
- This case isn't about collusion, the 2016 election or the Trump campaign. Manafort was charged with a slate of financial crimes, including bank fraud and tax evasion, relating to old lobbying work he did for the pro-Russia government of Ukraine.
- If convicted, Manafort could spend the rest of his life in prison. The stakes couldn't be any higher for Manafort, who has been locked up since June, when his bail was revoked. If convicted on all counts, he could be sentenced to 300 years in prison.
.Read more about the trial in CNN's recent reporting here. | | THE 'BIGFOOT EROTICA' FEUD | | Today, in political headlines you didn't expect to read: "'Bigfoot erotica' takes center stage in Virginia congressional race." Yes, really.
CNN's Eli Watkins reports: "In one of the more bizarre episodes of the midterm elections this year, the race for Virginia's 5th Congressional District has come down to a fight over 'Bigfoot erotica' and whether one candidate is into it. Democratic candidate Leslie Cockburn tweeted on Sunday that, in addition to campaigning with a white supremacist, Republican candidate Denver Riggleman was 'a devotee of Bigfoot erotica' -- both charges that Riggleman denied in an interview with CNN.
"'My opponent Denver Riggleman, running mate of Corey Stewart, was caught on camera campaigning with a white supremacist. Now he has been exposed as a devotee of Bigfoot erotica. This is not what we need on Capitol Hill,' Cockburn tweeted along with a photo of a nude Bigfoot, apparently from Riggleman's Instagram. Riggleman, however, told CNN the accusation about a sexual interest in Bigfoot was absurd."
Read more in Eli's full story here. | | Presidents and vice presidents -- they're just like us! They get coffee to catch up! Yes, that's right: Former POTUS Barack Obama and Veep Joe Biden were spotted grabbing food at Dog Tag Bakery in Georgetown on Monday. The bakery tweeted about it, adding "look who stopped by." For those of you unfamiliar with the bakery, it is run by a nonprofit of the same name, Dog Tag Inc. Its purpose is to help empower veterans and military families to "discover personal and professional fulfillment in the civilian world," according to its website.
CNN's Amanda Jackson reported that Dog Tag Bakery director of development Lolly Rivas was very surprised by their visit. "We were absolutely stunned to see them! We had no idea they were coming. Members of their respective teams came in about 30 minutes before and asked to speak with management. President Obama told our CEO that they had been following our work for some time and wanted to check it out for themselves."
What'd they order? Per Rivas, "President Obama and Biden had ham and gruyere on our house-made shallot jam ciabatta. Biden had a slice of the Mint Basil Blueberry cake. Both had the Compass Coffee we serve for the road along with some of our signature Share the Love Brownies." | | ICYMI: RBG'S RETIREMENT PLAN | | Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has no plan to retire anytime soon. The 85-year-old on Sunday said she's planning on serving until she's 90. She has already hired law clerks for at least two more terms.
After a production of "The Originals" in New York, Ginsburg said: "My senior colleague, Justice John Paul Stevens, he stepped down when he was 90, so I think I have about at least five more years."
Read more here. | | | From Brenna: "Do you recognize the woman in this GIF? It's Linda Tripp! Tripp (of Lewinsky recording notoriety) hardly ever speaks in public and has changed a lot since the '90s. She was speaking to mark National Whistleblowers Day." Happy Monday, and as always, thanks for reading The Point. Please tell other people to subscribe, too. | | We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Our authors for The Point are Chris Cillizza and Saba Hamedy. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris or Saba. Follow on Twitter: Chris and Saba.
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