| | | | The Democratic wave is growing 🌊 | | With Labor Day rapidly approaching, one thing is becoming clear: All signs point to the Democratic wave growing rather than shrinking in the final weeks of the 2018 election.
Point #1: A new CNN poll shows Democrats with an 11-point edge on the generic ballot, a margin that, if history is any guide, promises major gains for the minority party. By comparison, Republicans held a 49%-43% edge on the generic ballot in the final CNN poll before the 2010 election, before the party picked up more than 60 seats that year. In the final CNN poll before the 2006 election -- where Democrats netted 30 seats -- the party had a 15-point generic ballot edge.
The generic ballot question -- "If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district" -- has functioned, largely effectively, as a sort of political weather vane. It tells us which way the wind is blowing and how strongly.
Point #2: Quinnipiac University has a new national poll out as well -- showing Democrats with a 9-point edge on the generic ballot. Self-identified independents -- traditionally the swing voting bloc in most elections -- favor a Democrat over a Republican by 12 points.
Point #3: The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapping site, moved three more House races in Democrats' favor on Wednesday. According to Cook's House editor, David Wasserman, the moves now mean that there are "37 GOP-held seats as Toss Ups or more vulnerable (Lean/Likely Dem), nearly double the 20 we counted in January." In short: The playing field is getting bigger. And all the vulnerability is on the Republican side.
There's a tendency to avoid making any hard and fast predictions about where this election is headed because a) the old cliche that a month is like a year in politics and b) every "proven" quantitative measure showed Donald Trump losing in 2016 right before he won.
At the same time, there's very little evidence historically to suggest that the underlying dynamics of election cycles change much in their last 90 days or so -- barring some sort of catastrophic national or international event. Wrote Cook Political Report namesake Charlie Cook prophetically last week:
"In modern history, we've never seen a directional change in the last three months of a midterm election campaign. Waves can stay the same or increase in the closing months, but they don't reverse direction or dissipate."
That's very important to keep in mind amid the hand-wringing about people making inaccurate predictions because the election is soooooo far off. [Narrator voice: It's really not.]
The Point: What we are trying to deduce between now and November 6 isn't whether this is going to be a wave election for Democrats. It is. The only issue is how big -- and who gets swept away. And recent signs suggest the answers to those two questions are a) "big" and b) "lots of Republicans."
-- Chris | | "What we're looking at in our political world is a definite reaction to what happened in 2016. People like myself and people who normally wouldn't be in politics are rising up all over."
-- Christine Hallquist, Vermont's first transgender candidate for governor, in an interview with CNN's Don Lemon | | | A DIVERSITY PUSH FROM THE WHITE HOUSE? | | White House press secretary Sarah Sanders said Wednesday that the White House is "going to continue to try to diversify this staff." Here's why this is a big deal:
What we know about White House diversity: Sanders declined on Wednesday to say how many African-Americans work at the White House. But CNN's Jeremy Diamond reported earlier this week that none of the 48 assistants and deputy assistants to Trump are black.
How did this come up? Omarosa Manigault Newman, the only African-American to serve in a senior role in Trump's White House, has been on a media blitz promoting her new book "Unhinged," which documents her time at the White House. In the book, she reveals private conversations during her time on the campaign and in the White House. She has also released several audio recordings of conversations she had with Trump and campaign aides.
What Sanders previously said about the issue: During Tuesday's briefing, Sanders defended the President's record on race. She said Trump had already tripled Obama's record over eight years for creating jobs for black workers. Later that evening, she tweeted a correction. "Correction from today's briefing: Jobs numbers for Pres Trump and Pres Obama were correct, but the time frame for Pres Obama wasn't. I'm sorry for the mistake, but no apologies for the 700,000 jobs for African-Americans created under President Trump," Sanders wrote. | | | Death Cab for Cutie has new music! Listen to "Thank You For Today." | | NO MORE SECURITY CLEARANCE FOR BRENNAN 🙅🏽♂️ | | Former CIA director John Brennan's security clearance has been revoked, CNN's Betsy Klein and Jeremy Diamond reported Wednesday.
White House press secretary Sarah Sanders read this statement from President Trump: "As the head of the executive branch and commander in chief, I have a unique constitutional responsibility to protect the nation's classified information, including by controlling access to it. Today, in fulfilling that responsibility, I have decided to revoke the security clearance of John Brennan, former director of the Central Intelligence Agency."
The news comes just a month after the White House announced that it was considering taking such action, which amounts to an unprecedented use of presidential authority to punish political rivals. Read more in CNN's full story here. | | The Bay State is buzzing with 2020 potential contenders. CNN's Caroline Kenny writes:
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, considered a potential 2020 Democratic presidential contender, on Wednesday introduced the Accountable Capitalism Act, which is aimed at broadly ending shareholder capitalism and making wages grow with profits. She explains this move in a companion op-ed in The Wall Street Journal. As CNN's Eric Bradner wrote on Twitter, this is Warren "planting a flag for 2020."
In other potential 2020 news from Massachusetts politicians, Boston Mayor Marty Walsh is in Iowa, fitting seven events into about 24 hours. Walsh, who previously was the head of the labor group Boston Building Trades, is meeting with firefighters, holding a roundtable discussion with party leaders and Rep. Dave Loebsack, and visiting a construction site. In addition, he'll pop by the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines. Walsh has been doing a bunch of national travel: last month he was in Ohio and Indiana, today Iowa, and he's planning a trip to Wisconsin for next month.
Fore more #2020 analysis, stay tuned for Chris and Harry Enten's updated list of rankings coming out tomorrow! | | Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, Supreme Court nominee Judge Brett Kavanaugh is meeting with more senators ahead of his September 4 confirmation hearing. Sens. Heidi Heitkamp and Joe Donnelly -- both members who face tough re-elections this fall in states Trump handily won -- are among the first Democrats to meet with Kavanaugh, CNN's Lauren Fox reported Wednesday. West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin already met with the judge in July. All three previously voted to confirm Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch last year.
Thousands of documents related to Kavanaugh's time in the Bush White House were released last week. Kavanaugh's records are being screened by a group of lawyers working for Bush and by a team of lawyers from the Department of Justice.
From Lauren's story: "No Democratic votes are required to confirm Kavanaugh after a rules change last year, but that is only if Majority Leader Mitch McConnell can hold his entire Republican conference together, a tall order with some independent-minded members. So far, key swing votes Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Maine Sen. Susan Collins have not said if they plan to back Kavanaugh." Here's CNN's running list of where senators stand on Kavanaugh. | | | From Brenna: "House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's gestures are always very grand. Like she's conducting an orchestra or something. She was at a family issues summit in Texas today. Conduct your friends in our direction by telling them to subscribe to The Point." | | We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Our authors for The Point are Chris Cillizza and Saba Hamedy. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris or Saba. Follow on Twitter: Chris and Saba.
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