Wednesday, September 26, 2018

Don’t Blame Trump, Blame China

Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Jason Miks.

September 26, 2018

Don't Blame Trump, Blame China

President Trump warned Wednesday that China is meddling in the upcoming US midterm elections, further escalating tensions between the two countries. But from its hawkish positions on the South China Sea and ties with Japan, to its reluctance to pressure North Korea, Beijing mostly has itself to blame, argues John Pomfret in The Washington Post.

"Much of the failure can be blamed on a triumphalist sense within the Chinese Communist Party that its system of resilient authoritarianism is superior to liberal democracy. As far back as a decade ago, the party began shedding the old strategy of its dead leader, Deng Xiaoping, that mandated that China should 'bide its time.' An aggressive China emerged under party leader Hu Jintao and has only accelerated since Xi took power in 2012."

"To be sure, it's easy to criticize Trump's tougher policy on China as scattershot or even dangerous. But those who yearn to 'put the relationship back on track' don't really offer viable alternatives to the challenges China presents."

Trouble on the high seas? Escalating tensions between the US and China aren't confined to trade, notes Kristin Huang in the South China Morning Post. Following China's decision to deny a "request for a US warship to visit Hong Kong next month" military ties could be deteriorating, too.

"After the US State Department last week imposed sanctions on a key Chinese military unit and its director for buying fighter jets and surface-to-air missiles from Russia, communication between the two sides could falter.

"In response, Beijing recalled its navy chief, Shen Jinlong, from a visit to the US, postponed military talks and rejected a port call to Hong Kong by US warship the USS Wasp."

Europe Can't Save the Iran Deal

The European Union may have tried to present a united front in defending the Iran deal earlier this week. It likely won't be enough to save it, writes Michael Hirsh for Foreign Policy.

"China, Turkey, and a few other countries have continued to defy Trump by buying Iranian oil, raising the prospect that a few holdouts from US pressure could keep Iran's main industry afloat," Hirsh writes.

"But one by one, nations are dropping out of trade with Tehran, fearful of US retaliation; the latest appears to be India, which after early defiance of Washington now seems set to cut its Iranian oil purchases to zero. Thus, the survival of the nuclear deal will almost certainly come down to the stare-off between the United States and Europe. And as the months go by, Iran will likely succumb to temptation to covertly resume its nuclear program."

Europe's betting on the wrong horse. "The puzzle is why Europe insists on sticking so doggedly with Barack Obama's 2015 nuclear deal," The Wall Street Journal editorializes.

"European leaders know the deal is flawed. French President Emmanuel Macron laid out many of the weaknesses in his visit to Washington this year: It ignores Tehran's ballistic-missile program, turns a blind eye to Iran's military adventurism, and includes a sunset after which Iran could sprint to a bomb. Apparently, they can't bring themselves to agree on anything with the Trump Administration," the paper argues.

"Europe would get better results—and maybe a better deal with Iran—if it coordinated with Washington to apply pressure on Iran to reopen the 2015 deal. Iran will refuse to talk as long as the mullahs think they have Europe on their side."

Underemployment is the New Unemployment

Western leaders have in recent months been happy to brag about low unemployment in their countries. But the headline numbers mask a growing problem, suggests Leonid Bershidsky for Bloomberg: Underemployment.

"In some economies with lax labor market regulation — the UK and the Netherlands, for example — more people are on precarious part-time contracts than out of work. That could allow politicians to use just the headline unemployment number without going into details about the quality of the jobs people manage to hold down," Bershidsky writes.

"Generous standards for measuring unemployment produce numbers that don't agree with most people's personal experience and the anecdotal evidence from friends and family. A lot of people are barely working, and wages are going up too slowly to fit a full employment picture. At the same time, underemployment…is rarely discussed and unreliably measured."

The Best Place in the World for Economic Freedom Is…

Hong Kong has greater economic freedom than anywhere else in the world, according to the latest Economic Freedom of the World report, thanks to the small size of its government, freedom to trade internationally and light labor market regulations.

The annual survey, produced by the Cato Institute and Canada's Fraser Institute, "is designed to measure the degree to which the institutions and policies of countries are consistent with economic freedom," the report says. Rounding out the top five countries or territories are Singapore, New Zealand, Switzerland and Ireland.

The United States ranked sixth overall, scoring well for its "sound money" – including a stable inflation rate – but ranked 86^th overall for size of government. The worst place for economic freedom was Venezuela.

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