| | | | It's NOT the economy, stupid! | | If you've ever paid even the smallest bit of attention, you know the phrase, "It's the economy, stupid."
That line entered our political lexicon during the 1992 presidential campaign, when James Carville, a strategist for the presidential bid of then-Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton, scrawled it on a whiteboard in Clinton's campaign headquarters.
The message was simple -- and right: Voters care first, second and third about the economy, as understood by how they were feeling about their own financial well-being. Everything else was just noise.
And for the next three decades or so, that mantra has ruled electoral politics. How the economy is doing -- or is perceived to be doing -- will tell you everything you need to know about a candidate or a party's chances of winning.
Which brings us to the current moment -- and the current President: Donald Trump.
All economic indicators suggest things are roaring in the country. The unemployment rate in August was 3.9%. The Gross Domestic Product increased 4.2% in the second quarter of 2018. And yet Trump's job approval has dipped of late; in a new CNN-SSRS poll released earlier this month, just 36% approved of how Trump was handling the gig. (Trump's overall job approval was just over 40% in the Real Clear Politics average of polls.)
Why the disconnect? A new piece of data from Gallup provides the answer -- or at least an answer. Just 12% of people say that any aspect of the economy is the most important issue facing the country. That's the lowest score ever recorded for the economy on that question, which Gallup has been asking since 1991 in its current form.
What's replaced the economy as the most important issue? According to Gallup, it's "dissatisfaction with government/poor leadership." In the latest Gallup survey, 29% cited unhappiness with the government and its leaders as the country's most pressing problem.
That data comes amid increasingly public concerns from smart Republican strategists that the party isn't getting the credit on the economy it needs to head off a potentially disastrous result at the ballot box in 50 days.
"People think the economy is doing well, but that's not what they're voting on -- they're voting on the chaos of the guy in the White House," GOP pollster Glen Bolger told The New York Times over the weekend.
It doesn't take a political genius to see the writing on the wall here for Republicans. The 2018 election is shaping up as a straight referendum on a deeply unpopular President. Trump's inability -- and unwillingness -- to recede into the background or tone things down for the good of the party ensures that he will continue to overshadow everything else in voters' minds. And that includes the demonstrable successes of the economy.
The Point: The Gallup numbers are just another data point suggesting that Republicans are in for a very rough election, seven weeks and a day from today. Even more worrisome? Trump seems either oblivious to or ignorant of that very fact.
-- Chris | | "Needless to say, there's a huge difference between an isolated slip of the tongue and ceaseless, shameless, and witless prevarication on virtually all topics, large and small."
-- George Conway, White House counselor Kellyanne Conway's husband, responding to President Trump's tweet criticizing former President Barack Obama for saying at a 2008 rally that he had been to "57 states" while on the campaign trail. | | | Over the past few days, Supreme Court hopeful Brett Kavanaugh's nomination has been thrown for a loop after a woman who accuses him of sexually assaulting her while they were in high school came forward, and both parties have hired attorneys.
Early Monday morning, Debra Katz, the lawyer for Christine Blasey Ford, who is accusing Kavanaugh of sexual assault, said on CNN's New Day that her client would be willing to testify in public to the Senate Judiciary Committee.
Not long after, Kavanaugh himself also said he'd be willing to testify in front of the committee.
Now, the White House is in a scramble figuring out its next steps. CNN's Kevin Liptak, Kaitlan Collins and Abby Phillip describe the scene as Kavanaugh was seen arriving at the West Wing just past 10 a.m. ET on Monday, swiftly ducking into the building after stepping from a black SUV.
Trump addressed the allegations Monday afternoon, telling the press he's open to a delay in order to keep the process going and eventually confirm Kavanaugh.
"Judge Kavanaugh is one of the finest people that I've ever known. He is an outstanding intellect and outstanding judge respected by everybody. Never had even a little blemish on his record," Trump said. "If it takes a little delay, it'll take a little delay."
Read Chris' take on why these allegations against Kavanuagh come at the worst possible time for Republicans. | | | New Horse Feathers album! H/T Chris, who is a flannel-wearing Pacific Northwestern hipster in some alternate universe. | | WHAT COMES AFTER THE MIDTERMS? | | Signs are pointing toward a Democratic takeover of the House this election cycle, which would mean that the party would hold the speaker's gavel for the first time in eight years. If that happened, all eyes would immediately be on one person: Nancy Pelosi.
CNN's Sunlen Serfaty and Ashley Killough break down three possible scenarios for Democrats post-November 6.
1) Democrats win, Pelosi stays
Pelosi has not been shy about the fact that she plans to stay in power of her caucus, win or lose. Just last week, she told CNN's Christiane Amanpour, "I feel very comfortable about the support that I have in the caucus, and that I will be the speaker of the House." She has the name recognition, fundraising prowess and a large base of support that could propel her back into the role of speaker.
2) Democrats win, Pelosi leaves
Pelosi may be saying she plans to stay, but many candidates running for the House across the country have pledged to not support Pelosi for speaker if the party were to gain control. In addition, at least five Democratic incumbents, according to a CNN count, have pledged to vote against her for speaker. Names like Steny Hoyer, Jim Clyburn, Tim Ryan and Cedric Richmond, among others, are being tossed around to potentially succeed Pelosi.
3) Democrats lose
Despite the promising polls and numbers, it's not a guarantee that Democrats will retake the House this fall. If this were to happen, a lot of the blame would fall on Pelosi. Many members and aides have expressed that it's a definite possibility that Pelosi would step down if Democrats fail to take back the majority, despite her vow to stay as long as Trump is President. If she leaves, a similar situation would emerge in terms of an open race for top positions. Some have called to clean house if Democrats lose so can they bring in a fresh slate of faces to the leadership roles.
Read the whole story here. | | WOMEN ARE SETTING RECORDS | | The primaries are over and most of the races have been called. While November 6 is still weeks away, there is already one clear takeaway: A history-making number of women will appear on general election ballots in congressional and Senate races. - A total of 256 women have qualified for the November ballot in House or Senate races so far -- 197 Democrats and 59 Republican candidates, according to an analysis of election results.
- Of that 256 number, there are 234 women running for the House and 22 for the Senate.
- According to the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers, the previous record of Democratic nominees was 120 in 2016.
- There are 16 women running for governor in November: 12 Democrats and 4 Republicans.
Read more from CNN's story by Grace Sparks and Annie Grayer. | | 2018: THE YEAR OF THE YOUTH VOTE? | | "Rock the Vote" is back and ready to work on getting young people energized and prepared to vote in the 2018 midterm elections this November.
This election cycle, the long-standing voter registration group is looking to tap into the recent buzz around activism and getting out the vote surrounding high school students. The group's organizers have made the decision to work with local schools, offering a mix of classes on the history and importance of voting that will result in registering or pre-registering students to vote, according to Rock the Vote executives. They will be going into over 2,000 high schools across America to put this plan into action.
Rock the Vote was one of the groups that partnered with the student organizers of "March for Our Lives" during a voter registration tour this summer.
Read more here from CNN's Annie Grayer. | | | From Brenna: "Find yourself someone as excited about you as Jeff Sessions is about Senate debate. For real, that's what he was talking about. You do you, Jeff Sessions. And share your excitement for The Point with everyone you know." | | | | | | |
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