| | | | Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation chances just took a hit | | On Thursday afternoon, lawyers for Christine Blasey Ford indicated she would be willing to come to Washington to testify in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee sometime next week, a major shift from her stance earlier in the week that she would not sit for an interview unless and until the FBI looked into her allegations that Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her at a party in the 1980s.
That now means that Ford is nearly certain to tell her story publicly sometime next week. And that is bad news for Kavanaugh's chances at confirmation.
Here's why. Prior to her latest response, the growing expectation in Washington was that Kavanaugh's confirmation had been righted after being rocked by Ford's allegation last week. The belief was that Ford would not meet the deadline of 10 a.m. Friday that Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, set to let the committee know whether she planned to attend to the Monday hearing. Which meant the hearing wouldn't happen. Which meant a vote in the Judiciary Committee would happen. And given Republicans' Senate majority -- and the unity emerging behind Kavanaugh -- that meant he was almost certainly going to be confirmed to the Court.
If I had to put a percentage on Kavanaugh's chances of confirmation prior to Thursday, I would say 90%. Maybe higher.
But assuming that Ford and Grassley can come to some sort of agreement on a) a day for her to appear next week and b) the parameters of her testimony, Kavanaugh's confirmation chances drop -- maybe precipitously. (For the record: I am assuming that Ford will be accommodated -- even if the hearing on Monday needs to be moved back a few days. Everyone -- from Grassley to President Donald Trump -- has expressed a desire to hear her side of the story.)
It's hard to imagine that Ford will cut anything other than a sympathetic figure in front of the committee. An accomplished professional woman sacrificing her privacy -- and her safety -- to step forward to tell her story, facing down a group, at least on the Republican side, of mostly men? It's a visual Republicans badly wanted to avoid. It now seems likely they will not dodge that scene.
For Kavanaugh's part, he has already repeatedly denied the Ford allegations. He is likely to do so again -- and to lean heavily on a series of testimonials from women in his life over the years to argue that this is a case of mistaken identity or misremembering on Ford's part. And if his past testimony during his confirmation hearing is any indication, he will come across as a genuine and self-effacing.
What Kavanaugh can't control is how the senators questioning him and Ford act. And how the public watching the proceedings react to all of it. Ford testifying injects a massive amount of fluctuation and uncertainty into the proceedings. And uncertainty is Kavanaugh's enemy -- and the enemy of Republicans desperately trying to get him confirmed before the 2018 midterms.
The Point: None of the above means Kavanaugh can't or won't be confirmed to the Supreme Court. He may well still make it. But assuming Ford makes good on her willingness to appear before the Judiciary Committee next week, the future for Kavanaugh is now much blurrier.
-- Chris | | "... As Democrats get gavels, we're going to want to get to the bottom of this."
-- Democratic Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse on the Kavanaugh accusations | | | OTHER NEWS ON THE NOMINATION | | Here are the developments today surrounding Kavanaugh's nomination: - There's one Democrat on the Judiciary committee who has emerged as an outspoken critic of Republicans' handling of this issue. More from CNN's Maegan Vazquez here.
- CNN's Kaitlan Collins reports that White House aides were stunned by President Trump's respectful handling of Ford's allegations.
- Both Kavanaugh and Ford have received a slew of death threats, CNN has learned.
- In a move that could put pressure on key swing vote Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski, Gov. Bill Walker, an independent, and his lieutenant governor, Byron Mallott, announced their opposition to Kavanaugh's nomination today. (h/t CNN's Manu Raju and Daniella Diaz)
All this brings to mind how years of Senate drama set up Kavanaugh's bitter nomination fight. Read more of Chris's explainer.
CNN's legal analyst Joan Biskupic looks at how little has changed for the Judiciary Committee since Anita Hill's 1991 testimony. | | 📹 THE POINT -- NOW ON YOUTUBE! 🎬 🎉 | | | Chris' brand new weekly YouTube show launched today! It's a deep dive into a major issue swirling in the political world. The inaugural edition deals with Donald Trump's claim that the special counsel probe run by Robert Mueller is illegal. Chris' show appears on CNN's YouTube channel, so make sure to subscribe so you get alerted as soon as the next episode is out. Want to know more? Check out the show's trailer! Here's today's episode: | |  | Trump says the Mueller investigation is illegal. It isn't. | | Nicolás Maduro slammed for dining on pricey #SaltBae steaks.
Willie Nelson talks about Beto endorsement with Rolling Stone magazine.
I missed the whole Bert and Ernie debate. This explainer from Vox was helpful.
The Guardian interviewed the new James Bond director. | | | Do you like amazing harmonies and beautiful melodies? Then you need to listen to First Aid Kit's new one. | | | Today's topic: Brett Kavanaugh's SCOTUS chances may have just taken a hit. | | THE NEWEST CONSPIRACY THEORY | | President Donald Trump's lawyer Jay Sekulow is pushing the claim -- without presenting evidence -- that NBC edited a May 2017 interview in which Trump said he was thinking of "this Russia thing" when he canned then-FBI Director James Comey.
CNN's Brian Stelter fact-checks the claim: "There's no sign that NBC 'fudged' the tape of the interview or did anything else untoward."
What Sekulow said on CNN's "Cuomo Prime Time:" "You know that when there are interviews, there are edits and there is a longer transcript, and I will just tell you without disclosing any detail that when you review the entire transcript, it is very clear as to what happened."
Trump had claimed back in August: "When Lester Holt got caught fudging my tape on Russia, they were hurt badly!"
NBC released both a transcript of Trump's May 2017 interview with anchor Lester Holt and an approximately 13-minute clip of the two talking. | | TRUMP'S LEAST LIKELY PICK FOR EMPLOYEE OF THE MONTH | | "I'm disappointed in the attorney general for numerous reasons," Trump told reporters Wednesday.
The latest reason is Sessions' handling of the US-Mexico border, according to a White House official close to discussions on immigration policy.
CNN's Boris Sanchez and Kyle Feldscher report: "The official tells CNN Trump has heard directly from high-ranking figures who are upset over the pace at which the Department of Justice has moved to adjudicate asylum claims, resulting in a backlog of cases."
More from the story: "The official says while this is likely 'palace intrigue' because the Justice Department 'is doing their part,' the complaints have only compounded Trump's frustration about a stalled immigration agenda and his anger with Sessions that stems from his decision to recuse himself from the Russia probe last year." | | ICE ARRESTS SPONSORS OF UNDOCUMENTED CHILDREN | | From CNN's Tal Kopan: "Federal officers have arrested dozens of immigrants who came forward to take care of immigrant children in government custody, and the Trump administration is pledging to go after more."
On Tuesday, ICE senior official Matthew Albence testified to Congress that ICE arrested 41 people who came forward to care for undocumented immigrant children.
An ICE official confirmed to CNN that 70% of those arrests were for straightforward immigration violations. | | | Tonight, President Trump heads to Las Vegas, Nevada to hold a campaign rally. The event starts at 10 p.m. ET. | | | From Brenna: "This is Ivanka Trump high-fiving an empty space suit at NASA in Texas. Carry on. Tell your friends to subscribe to The Point!" | | | | | | |
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