| | | | The Trump factor: 2018's real test | | The 2018 election will be all about Donald Trump.
Everything we know about midterm voters -- including that there will be less of them and they'll hail more from the parties' bases than in a presidential cycle -- means that the Trump factor will be on their minds at the polls.
"Both of these sides have been waiting for this moment since January 2017," professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University (and CNN contributor) Julian Zelizer told me about this year's midterm voters. "These are people who have been encouraged or most aggravated by what's happening in the news."
Because of that, for campaigns this year (and increasingly over the last few cycles) it's less about how to win voters over, but how to get the ones you want to the polls. Case in point: Trump's hard pivot to the immigration issue in the last week of the election in an attempt to rile up Republican voters.
"It's clear he's trying to activate his base," UNI political science professor Chris Larimer told me this week.
But will that strategy activate his base, or encourage those who dislike him?
At least nationally, we have a picture of just how polarized voters are on Trump, thanks to polling from CNN and SSRS earlier this month. Among Democrats, 92% disapprove of Trump -- while 87% of Republicans approve of the President.
In key states like Florida, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia on Election Day, the difference will ultimately come down to which side is bigger -- and who makes it to the polls.
The Point: This is voters' first -- and biggest -- chance to send a message to Trump. Will they tell him "job well done," or that there's trouble ahead? | | Programming note: It's the final countdown! Along with your regularly scheduled nightly newsletter this week, we will have TWO MORE special midterms editions of The Point, landing in your inboxes Monday and Tuesday around noon EST.
Send feedback to cillizza@cnn.com and dezenski@cnn.com. Thanks for reading! | | | | We're back with our final midterms Q&A with Chris before Election Day! This week, I had some questions about Trump's immigration message, early voting and the value of a celebrity endorsement. Plus, some good news! 🎉
Lauren Dezenski: President Trump has made it clear he's trying to make immigration the key issue in his closing argument, not only by making comments at campaign rallies and positioning his administration, but by also cutting ads, and allocating government resources (and potentially thousands of troops) to this effort to stave off an "invasion" at the border. I want to dig into the historical precedent a bit. Are we in uncharted political waters here?
Chris Cillizza: Well, no one has been as brazen as Trump in using the powers of the Office of President to aid his political goals. The supposed policy speech Trump gave on Thursday at the White House was remarkable -- an address entirely devoid of policy and aimed solely at driving home the idea he has been pushing on the campaign trail: The caravan is coming, they are going to take what's yours, you better be scared.
To be clear: All presidents have a closing message of some sort -- it's usually something like, "Look at all we've done. Give me more people in my party so we can do even more!" Trump has that element to his closing stump speech but there's also a very large helping of anger and fear of the other mixed in too.
LD: Our colleagues Harry Enten and Eric Bradner riffed on the significance of early voting numbers – but where do you stand? Do the initial returns from states where early voting takes place tell us anything?
CC: As Harry and Eric note, it's VERY hard to make hard and fast predictions about early vote because we just don't know who exactly has voted -- and whether or not this means a legit expansion of the electorate in favor of one side or the other. Historically, Democrats have done better on early vote -- banking lots and lots of votes -- while Republicans have done better in day-of voting. I am sure Democrats in Texas are encouraged by the early vote numbers -- more than 2 million votes cast – but it's hard to say whether their optimism is warranted or not.
One thing I do think we can conclude is that interest in this midterm election is higher than it has been in past midterms. Remember that turnout sunk to a post-World War II low in 2014, as roughly 36% of the voting age population turned out. It seems likely that 2018 will hugely surpass the total number of votes we saw cast in 2014.
LD: There's a lot to be made over these high-profile politicians or celebrities (though tbh the line is increasingly blurred) stumping for candidates around the country. What's your take on the value of a celebrity dipping their toe in the political world? Does it matter that Oprah was in Georgia or Jimmy Buffet hit the trail in Florida?
CC: Celebrities are a double edged sword. Oprah being in Georgia for Stacey Abrams, on the one hand, draws huge amounts of media attention and is good way to motivate the Democratic base. But an Oprah visit could also motivate the Republican base to go out and send a message that Georgia doesn't like celebrities telling them what to do.
To answer your question: No, I don't think a celebrity appearance is the difference between winning and losing in most of these races. I think it's one of a thousand things that could influence a voter in the final week of a campaign.
BONUS QUESTION: How excited are you for the two special, midday campaign editions of The Point coming on Monday and Tuesday??
CC: My biggest moments ranked: 1. Getting married 2. Birth of my children 3. The Point special editions. See you next week! | | While we won't truly know how much Trump's first two years in office motivated midterm voters until we get our hands on exit polling, we do have an early glimpse.
And new polling from CNN and SSRS shows how voters feel about Trump in key Senate races in the week ahead of Election Day:
Florida:
Supporting the Democrat: 8% approve of Trump, 90% disapprove of Trump
Supporting the Republican: 89% approve of Trump, 5% disapprove of Trump
Tennesse:
Supporting the Democrat: 8% approve of Trump, 92% disapprove of Trump
Supporting the Republican: 87% approve of Trump, 4% disapprove of Trump
Arizona:
Supporting the Democrat: 5% disapprove of Trump, 93% disapprove of Trump
Supporting the Republican: 93% approve of Trump, 5% disapprove of Trump
Nevada:
Supporting the Democrat: 7% approve of Trump, 91% disapprove of Trump
Supporting the Republican: 84% approve of Trump, 4% disapprove of Trump | | Death and taxes: Certainties of life, and also campaign fodder. As both parties crafted their closing arguments on the airwaves, here's a fascinating look at the top issues in campaign ads over the last year:
For Democrats: - Health care
- Taxes
- Campaign finance reform
For Republicans: - Taxes
- Health care
- Immigration
Data compiled by CNN's David Wright. | | ARE YOU IN OR ARE YOU OUT? | | Gayle King on Oprah running in 2020: Winfrey "is very, very, very happy with her life, and her life would drastically change" if she ran. But, per The New York Times, "That hasn't stopped Ms. King from urging Ms. Winfrey to do it."
Joe Biden on Joe Biden running in 2020: "I haven't made up my mind. I will at the beginning of next year. But I don't know," Biden told Politico. Asked how he's feeling about the possibility, he added: "Well, it's a family decision." | | SURPRISE SURROGATE OF THE WEEK | | It's John Legend!
The smooth crooner is headed to Ohio on Sunday as the featured performer at a GOTV event for the Cincinnati-area Hamilton County Democratic Party, according to an advisory from the party.
The event with Legend is coinciding with a "Souls to the Polls" effort that will get out the vote among religious voters headed to church that same day.
This isn't Legend's first time on the stump. Last month, he headlined an event in Orlando in support of voting rights for felons. He and wife Chrissy Teigen also donated $288,000 to the ACLU on President Trump's birthday this year to "Make Trump's Birthday Great Again." | |  | Be a Masshole | | The Boston Globe asks "is this 'the greatest political ad evah'?" And honestly, it just might be.
This ad for the Yes on 3 campaign, which would keep Massachusetts' current law protecting rights for transgender individuals, seizes on Beantown's biggest stereotypes.
"We're Massholes, but we're no assholes," concludes the protagonist who is probably related to Will Hunting, as he notes, "our forefathers granted us this right to be loud, proud and occasionally obnoxious. And that freedom is so important to us. So, who are we to take away our neighbor's liberties?"
Also -- ICYMI -- we'd be remiss not to mention *that* ad from President Donald Trump out this week. | | | 📍President Donald Trump to Montana, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Ohio, Indiana and Missouri 📍Mike Pence is headed to Minnesota and Wisconsin
📍Deval Patrick will be in Florida
📍Katherine Clark is headed to New Hampshire 📍Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom are heading to southern California 📍Elizabeth Warren is staying in Massachusetts | | | | | | |
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