| | | | The Technocratic Elite and the Dystopia of Meritocracy | | "Let me be clear. I — of all people — am not calling for a revival of the WASP establishment," Fareed writes in his latest column for The Washington Post, but in this national moment of reflection upon the presidency of George H.W. Bush, "can we learn something from its virtues?"
"For all its faults — and it was often horribly bigoted, in some places segregationist and almost always exclusionary — at its best, the old WASP aristocracy did have a sense of modesty, humility and public-spiritedness that seems largely absent in today's elite. Many of Bush's greatest moments," Fareed writes, "were marked by restraint, an ability to do the right thing despite enormous pressure to pander to public opinion."
The WASP establishment "could afford to think about the country's fate in broad terms, looking out for the longer term, rising above self-interest — because its own interest was assured" through "bloodlines and connections."
"Today's elites are chosen in a much more open, democratic manner, largely through education. Those who do well on tests get into good colleges, then good graduate schools, then get the best jobs and so on. But their power flows from this treadmill of achievement, so they are constantly moving, looking out for their own survival and success."
"Most damagingly, they believe their status is legitimately earned…Today, chief executives and other elites pay themselves lavishly, jockey for personal advantage and focus on their own ascendancy."
"Trump has found a genuine vein of disgust among many Americans at the way they are perceived and treated by their more successful countrymen. The violent protests that have been happening in France are similarly fueled by rural, poorer people who believe that the metropolitan elites ignore their plight. The 2016 Brexit vote reflected the same revolt against technocrats." - For more watch GPS this Sunday at 10am EST on CNN.
| | Mini-Merkel to Lead Germany—and Europe | | Germany's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) chose its new leader today: 56-year old Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer. Aware that she is seen as a protégée of outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel, Kramp-Karrenbauer (also known as AKK) has recently said of her relation to Merkel: "I learned what it is to lead -- and above all, learned that leadership is more about being strong on the inside than being loud on the outside." (CNN)
"For many people, the German chancellor is the world's most important political figure. A world in which the machismo of Russian President Vladimir Putin, US President Donald Trump, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan rages unabated," writes Ines Pohl, Editor-in-Chief of Deutsche Welle. "Merkel has been regarded by many as the voice of reason; the last bastion of balance in times that are deeply divided and characterized by dangerously rising nationalism."
"Within her own country, however, Merkel's splendor faded. In the state elections, her party endured one defeat after another, and the voices of critics within the party grew so loud that Merkel had no choice but to free up the party leadership."
But today's election of a close Merkel-ally to lead the party during the remainder of Merkel's tenure as Chancellor promises stability. "Berlin's foreign policy will remain reliable and Europe's most robust economy remains stable; the government's defining policies will hardly change." | | Pearl Harbor's Lessons for 2018 | | | "At Pearl Harbor early on a peaceful Sunday morning, the underestimated Japanese Navy dramatically changed notions of naval warfare and military history by wrecking an entire battleship fleet by air attack," writes Brigadier General (Ret.) Peter B. Zwack in The National Interest, reflecting upon the anniversary of Japan's attack on the US naval base on December 7, 1941. The attack was a grave miscalculation motivated by deepening distrust.
"[E]vents like Pearl Harbor—a carefully planned surprise attack—often grow out of an adversary's complete and utter conviction that war is inevitable," Zwack writes. "Once that conviction takes root, it's all too easy for a nation to interpret even unintentional slights… as signposts on the 'road to war.' In today's lightning-fast world, a major misunderstanding or miscalculation could spell catastrophe for the planet."
"In the years immediately before Pearl Harbor, the Japanese bristled at several US actions which were undertaken to warn the island country off of its aggressive regional adventuring, especially its brutal offensive campaign in China." But how could Japan, "a smaller, less-developed nation wreak so much havoc in such a short time? By capitalizing on a US misperception of Japan and by using surprise and deep study—critical elements for any nation that feels out-manned, outgunned and out-resourced as Japan did in 1941."
"With today's globally deliverable weapons of mass destruction, add in a mindset that sees war as unavoidable and our world faces a recipe for disaster."
"As an open, liberal democratic nation we remain prone to being surprised and therefore must always be on watch with high readiness. As such, military exercises and other defense preparations with our numerous like-minded allies and partners remain vital and non-negotiable." The US must commit to "firm, patient work" and "persistent and low-publicized dialogue" to dial back the forces of distrust that push adversaries down the road to war. War, Zwack urges, is not inevitable. | | Are You a Superforecaster? | | | GPS has teamed up with Good Judgment Open to allow viewers to weigh in with their predictions on some of the big questions of 2018. Is a US-Iran military clash likely? Will Bashar al-Assad still be Syria's president at the end of the year? Join thousands of GPS viewers currently forecasting on these questions and more by signing up for the Global Judgment Challenge here. | | | | | | |
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