Jobs report; Trouble in China; Deutsche Bank doubts

1. Not your average jobs report: The longest US government shutdown in history has left experts guessing what the January jobs report that's due before the bell on Friday will look like. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said this week that the 800,000 federal workers that were furloughed or asked to work without pay through January 25 will count as employed in the establishment survey, which generates the headline payrolls number.

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News: What you need to know about the markets     Jobs report; Trouble in China; Deutsche Bank doubts By Charles Riley, CNN Business   1. Not your average jobs report: The longest US government shutdown in history has left experts guessing what the January jobs report that's due before the bell on Friday will look like.   The Bureau of Labor Statistics said this week that the 800,000 federal workers that were furloughed or asked to work without pay through January 25 will count as employed in the establishment survey, which generates the headline payrolls number.   But the 380,000 employees who were furloughed — those who didn't work and weren't paid during the shutdown — will be counted as unemployed in the household survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate.   Initial claims for unemployment reached a 49-year low in late January, indicating that few of the approximately 4 million workers that depend on federal contracts lost their jobs. The most recent weekly jobless claims, however, surged to their highest level since September 2017.   It's a lot to untangle. Economists polled by Refinitiv estimate that employers added 165,000 jobs last month — a drop from the average of 220,000 jobs per month over the past year. They expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.9%.   2. Trump's trade optimism: President Donald Trump was optimistic as another round of trade talks between the United States and China concluded on Thursday, saying a sweeping agreement was possible.   Still, Trump said he was prepared to enact new sanctions and increase existing ones if a deal isn't struck. And he suggested a handshake deal instead of a firmer agreement could extend negotiations beyond the month's end, though the White House later insisted March 1 was a "hard deadline."   Asked in the Oval Office, where he was meeting with China's top negotiator, whether a deal was possible, Trump said he wasn't sure.   "We have to get this put on paper at some point if we agree," the president said, the president said, adding that on some points, "we don't agree ... but I think we will agree."   3. Trouble in China: The latest purchasing managers index survey, conducted by media group Caixin and research firm Markit, dropped to 48.3 in January.   That's the lowest level for the closely watched index since February 2016. It coincides with weak manufacturing data for January throughout Asia, raising fears about a global economic slowdown.   "With the headwinds from cooling global growth and the lagged impact of slower credit growth set to intensify, China's economy is likely to weaken further over the coming months," said Shilan Shah, senior economist at Capital Economics.   4. Deutsche Bank doubts: Germany's biggest bank on Friday posted its first annual profit since 2014, but a weak performance in the fourth quarter raises questions over its strategy.   Deutsche Bank lost €409 million ($468 million) in the final three months of 2018. The bank said the losses were caused by challenging financial markets, especially for its fixed income trading division.   Shares in the lender were down 2% in Frankfurt.   Christian Sewing, the CEO of Deutsche Bank, is cutting costs and reducing the company's headcount as part of an overhaul. Still, analysts predict the bank could soon merge with another European lender.   5. Global market overview: US stock futures were mixed.   European markets opened in positive territory. Stocks in Asia were mixed.   The Dow closed down 0.1% on Thursday. The S&P 500 added 0.9% and the Nasdaq gained 1.4%.   Before the Bell newsletter: Key market news. In your inbox. Subscribe now!   6. Earnings and economics: Chevron, CIGNA, Exxon Mobil, Honeywell, Madison Square Garden and Merck will release earnings before the open.

Coming this week:     Friday — Jobs report; Exxon and Chevron report earnings

Key Market Stats Latest Today's Change Oil $53.82 +0.03 / +0.06% Gold $1,325.70 +0.50 / +0.04% 10-yr 2.64% -0.06 Euro $1.15 +0.00 / +0.18%

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