| | | | The Brexit Cascade That Wasn't | | Brexit may be a gigantic mess—a "grotesque, calamitous … epic act of self-harm" for Britain, as the New Statesman's Martin Fletcher puts it—but at least the harm has been contained. "[L]eaving the European Union has lost any possible attractiveness" for other countries, and even Eurosceptics no longer talk of it, writes Eric Le Boucher in Les Echos (as translated by WorldCrunch).
After fears of "Brexit contagion," that's a relief. With the UK no longer around to block consensus in Brussels, Europe might actually grow more cohesive, Boucher writes, though UK tech leadership and military prowess will be missed. | | Though he's not on the ballot, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is waging "one of his fiercest campaigns in years" ahead of Sunday's local elections, writes Ayla Jean Yackley for Politico Europe—and if his Justice and Development Party (AKP) loses mayoral races in Istanbul and Ankara, it could reveal weakness.
Erdogan's biggest problem is the economy: Turkey is in a recession, with inflation at 19%, consumer confidence having dropped 14 points in 2018, and unemployment having hit 13.5% in December, notes former US ambassador to Turkey W. Robert Pearson. Despite those problems, Erdogan's AKP is unlikely to suffer major losses, Seven A. Cook predicts at Foreign Policy—partly because opposition politicians have failed to hone their messages against the president. | | In the Fight Over Huawei, Canadian Farmers Pay the Price | | | After China suspended imports from a second Canadian canola exporter this week, the South China Morning Post's Alex Lo suggests Canadian farmers are paying the price for Canada's detention of Huawei's CFO.
China had already retaliated with arrests, and now it's hitting a key export: In 2017-18, Canada seeded more land with canola than any other crop and, according to the Canola Council of Canada, exports 90% of it. The ban has "upended" farmers' plans, Lo writes, as they usually seed at this time, and they're holding Prime Minister Justin Trudeau "personally responsible" for it—indicating China timed its move for maximum pressure. | | How Iran Is Winning the War for Iraq | | Iran may be outmaneuvering the US in Iraq, Seth J. Frantzman writes at The National Interest after Iranian President Hassan Rouhani paid his first visit there earlier this month.
The trip "highlighted how close a large segment of Iraq's most influential and powerful politicians are to Iran," Frantzman writes, as evidenced by Rouhani's active networking there. Iran is poised to retain its leverage in Iraqi politics, thanks in part to the network of Shiite militias Iraq constituted to fight ISIS, and its influence is rising as Iraq's parliament considers evicting US troops—something Iranian state media has touted at home, Frantzman points out. | | A Campaign Stunt in Space? | | | "The modern battlefield has extended to space," Wired's Daniel Oberhaus reminds us, after India this week became the fourth country to shoot down a satellite with a missile (following the US, Russia, and China.) The Economist calls it a campaign stunt: India could have conducted this test "at any time in the past eight years," it writes, noting that Prime Minister Narendra Modi boasted of it on national TV—a rare occurrence during election season—with Indians set to vote in two weeks. | | | | | | |
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